奢侈品黄金时代的终结与临期食品的崛起 十年前的中国奢侈品市场还处于高速增长期。2015年，我国奢侈品消费占全球市场的比重达到前所未有的高度。 贝恩咨询数据显示，2015年中国奢侈品市场规模达到1130亿元，尽管受反腐影响有所下滑，但仍是全球奢侈品消费的重要引擎。当时，LV、Gucci等国际大 牌在中国一线城市疯狂扩张门店，北京SKP、上海恒隆等高端商场人头攒动，奢侈品消费成为身份象征和社交资本。 那是一个万物生长的时代，也是一个最好的时代。 当时几乎没有人会预料到十年后的今天，奢侈品市场会遭遇寒冬。 2025年，全球最大奢侈品集团LVMH二季度收入下跌4%，上半年出现营收利润双降，营业利润大跌15%，净利润大跌22%。 咨询机构贝恩则修改其之前对全球奢侈品行业将在2025年实现0-4%的增幅预测，认为2025年全球奢侈品市场销售规模或将下滑2%至5%。 当LV收入开始下跌的时候，也没有人会想到，消费端另一头的临期食品，会迎来一个爆发式增长。 根据行业的调研，今年国内临期食品市场规模将突破400亿元，年增长率近6%。好特卖等临期食品连锁品牌在全国快速扩张，其"花得少，吃得好"的理念吸 引了大量消费者。 而中产又 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing popularity of "near-expiry food" among consumers has prompted regulatory bodies to implement management guidelines to prevent these products from becoming expired and entering the market, which poses health risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - Beijing's market supervision authority has released guidelines for managing near-expiry food, aimed at preventing expired food from entering rural markets, which can also be referenced in urban areas [1][3]. - The Anhui Provincial Market Supervision Bureau has established regulations to enhance the quality and safety management of near-expiry food, focusing on labeling, expiry timelines, and quality responsibilities [2][3]. - Various regions have different definitions for "near-expiry," with Beijing and Shanxi defining it as within 45 days of expiry for products with a shelf life of one year or more, while Hebei and Anhui define it as within 30 days [3]. Group 2: Consumer Awareness and Safety - Consumers are encouraged to purchase near-expiry food from reputable sources and to pay attention to production dates, expiry dates, and storage conditions to ensure safety [3][4]. - Regulatory bodies emphasize the importance of informing consumers about the nature of near-expiry food through proper labeling and signage in stores [3][4]. - The management of near-expiry food is integrated into daily food safety supervision, with businesses required to include it in their risk control measures [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The current market performance reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing quality and practicality over brand prestige, rather than a simple downgrade in consumption [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - The term "consumption downgrade" has sparked discussions, but it may actually indicate a more discerning consumer base that prioritizes true value [1] - Consumers are increasingly moving from high-priced, low-quality products to options that offer better cost-performance ratios, driven by rational judgment rather than economic pressure [1][2] - There is a notable shift from passive acceptance of brands to active selection based on personal needs and value alignment [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Data - National per capita consumption expenditure has shown a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the average CPI growth during the same period [2] - E-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo have successfully challenged the notion that low prices equate to low quality, capturing consumer interest in practical value [2][3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Mid-to-high-end e-commerce platforms like JD.com face challenges as consumer sensitivity to brand premiums decreases, necessitating improvements in supply chain efficiency and service quality [3] - JD.com has managed to improve its operating profit margins through investments in logistics, quality control, and after-sales service [3] Group 4: Implications for Businesses - Companies must adapt to changing consumer demands by innovating products and services to enhance competitiveness [5] - A rational consumer mindset is essential for sustainable market development, avoiding blind pursuit of brand prestige and material accumulation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Administration has issued guidelines and risk alerts to address the issue of expired food in rural areas, aiming to enhance food safety and protect consumer rights [1][2] Group 1: Guidelines and Risk Alerts - The "Guidelines for the Management of Expired Food by Rural Food Operators" clarifies the definition of "near-expiry" food and provides management standards for rural food businesses [1] - The guidelines recommend measures such as setting up sales zones, optimizing food labeling, and timely disposal of expired food to strengthen management and ensure consumer rights [1] - The "Risk Alert" highlights the risk of inventory accumulation and sudden increases in near-expiry food during key consumption periods, advising food businesses to limit stock to no more than three times the usual amount and implement a "first in, first out" inventory system [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Consumer Protection - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Administration is intensifying its regulatory efforts in the rural food market to combat counterfeit and substandard food [2] - The administration emphasizes the importance of legal enforcement against violations to purify the rural food market environment and ensure the health and safety of rural consumers [2] - Consumers are encouraged to report any illegal activities related to counterfeit food by contacting designated hotlines or local market supervision departments [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The consumption landscape is evolving, with a notable shift towards rational and affordable spending among consumers, particularly the younger generation [1][2] - The high-end tea beverage market, exemplified by Nayuki, is facing significant challenges, with a reported revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, and a loss of 919 million yuan [1] - The tea beverage market has seen a drastic closure of 197,000 stores nationwide from November 2023 to November 2024, with major cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Dongguan witnessing over 2,000 closures [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Mixue Ice City stands out in the competitive landscape, achieving a revenue of 24.8 billion yuan in 2024 and a gross profit of 8 billion yuan, with over 45,000 stores globally [1] - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as young consumers now favor low-priced options, such as Mixue's 5 yuan per cup tea, reflecting a broader trend in spending habits [1][2] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The decline in pork prices and the rise of near-expiry food products indicate a wider change in consumption patterns across all age groups, not just the youth [2] - Pinduoduo's recent struggles, with significant declines in revenue and profit, highlight the impact of consumption downgrade and the challenges in stimulating consumer spending [5] - The importance of consumption as a new engine for economic growth is emphasized, especially as the investment-driven growth model becomes saturated [5][7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The consumption sector is becoming increasingly important, but the growth effect from consumption is lower than expected [1] - The tea beverage industry, particularly the milk tea segment, has seen significant closures, with 197,000 stores shutting down from November 2023 to November 2024 [1] - Nayuki's Tea reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, with a loss of 919 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Leaders - Mixue Ice City has emerged as the largest winner in the milk tea market, boasting over 45,000 stores globally and a revenue of 24.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 8 billion yuan [3][4] - The low price point of Mixue Ice City, with drinks priced around 5 yuan, has allowed it to achieve growth amidst a contracting market [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations now favoring low-cost options, contrasting with previous trends where premium brands were preferred [5][6] - The price sensitivity among consumers has increased, leading to a preference for affordable products like milk tea and discounted food items [23] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The decline in consumption is not limited to the milk tea sector but is reflected in other food categories, such as pork, which has seen prices drop to around 10 yuan [10][11] - The rapid growth of the near-expiry food market indicates a shift in consumer preferences, with projections suggesting the market could exceed 200 billion yuan by 2029 [12][13] Group 5: E-commerce Trends - Pinduoduo's revenue for Q1 was 95.67 billion yuan, up from 86.81 billion yuan year-on-year, but the company faced a significant drop in net profit, indicating challenges in the e-commerce sector [17] - The decline of Pinduoduo is attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of government subsidies and increased competition from other e-commerce platforms [17] Group 6: Economic Transition - The shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth is crucial for the economy, as over-reliance on investment has led to inefficiencies and excess capacity in various sectors [18][20] - The importance of stimulating consumption is emphasized as a means to support employment and income growth, particularly in light of a large number of college graduates entering the job market [22][23]

Core Insights - The retail industry is facing a significant issue with employee theft, which has been exacerbated by internal trust breakdowns and systemic vulnerabilities [1][17][20] - Employee theft is not only a financial burden but also a reflection of deeper issues within corporate culture and employee satisfaction [17][20] Industry Overview - The average gross profit margin for convenience stores in China is 20.1%, but the loss rate has exceeded 1.8% for three consecutive years, with over 40% of losses attributed to employee theft [1] - A case study from Inner Mongolia highlights a supermarket that lost 2 million yuan due to a coordinated theft by 16 employees, showcasing the severity of the issue [2][4] Case Studies - A chain supermarket's loss of high-end liquor through an employee's two-year theft scheme resulted in 1.27 million yuan in stolen goods, indicating the scale of organized theft [5] - An employee at an e-commerce company exploited a system vulnerability to steal 73 iPhones valued at 480,000 yuan, demonstrating the evolving nature of theft in the digital age [7] - A recent incident at a Sam's Club involved a former employee fraudulently claiming 5.5 million yuan worth of goods, highlighting the risks associated with inadequate internal controls [8] Employee Motivation - The motivations behind employee theft often stem from personal financial struggles, as illustrated by a case where a long-term employee stole goods to pay for a family member's medical expenses [10] - Companies that fail to address employee dissatisfaction and financial needs may inadvertently encourage theft as a form of retaliation [20] Solutions and Preventive Measures - Retailers are beginning to implement advanced security measures, such as AI monitoring systems, which have reportedly reduced internal theft by 62% [17] - Some companies are adopting profit-sharing models and improving employee compensation to foster a sense of ownership and reduce theft rates [17] - Psychological support programs and financial assistance for employees in need are being introduced to mitigate the risk of theft driven by desperation [17][20]

Group 1 - The core issue of low-price sales is its significant impact on market order and brand development, with complaints related to low-price sales increasing by 18% year-on-year in 2024 [1] - Low-price sales lead to a "price avalanche effect," causing a 40% decline in monthly sales for businesses maintaining original prices, forcing 70% of industry players to follow suit, resulting in a 12% drop in overall profit margins [3] - The prevalence of counterfeit products in low-price sales is alarming, with 35% of such products being fake, leading to a 200% increase in complaints for a major international beauty brand and a 27 percentage point drop in brand reputation within six months [3] Group 2 - Not all low-price sales are illegal; they must be assessed based on intent, market impact, and legal criteria, with examples of unfair competition including predatory pricing and counterfeit sales [4] - Legal low-price sales can occur under specific circumstances, such as managing perishable goods or promoting new products with a clear promotional period, as demonstrated by a supermarket increasing turnover of near-expiry goods by 60% [5][6] - The legal framework allows for price reductions based on cost savings or seasonal adjustments, provided they do not harm other businesses or disrupt market order [7]