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重庆消费首次超越上海!大城市的“富贵病”,已经开始显现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 09:52
Core Insights - Chongqing has surpassed Shanghai to become the city with the highest total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first time, with a total of 538.54 billion yuan compared to Shanghai's 535.55 billion yuan [1][3] - The decline in consumption in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing is attributed to high housing prices and a significant proportion of transient populations, which affects local consumption patterns [7][10] Group 1: Consumption Data - In the first four months of this year, Chongqing's retail sales grew by 4.4%, outperforming Guangzhou's 4% and Shenzhen's 3.7%, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 0.3% and Beijing a decline of 3.7% [7][8] - The top ten cities for consumer spending last year were Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Wuhan [6] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Chongqing's Success - Chongqing's large population base of 31.9 million in 2024 provides a significant advantage over other first-tier cities, which have populations around 20 million [3] - The lower housing prices in Chongqing compared to first-tier cities allow residents to allocate more disposable income to consumption rather than mortgage payments [3][14] Group 3: Challenges for First-tier Cities - The high proportion of transient populations in cities like Beijing and Shanghai leads to lower local consumption, as these individuals may not spend significantly in the cities where they work [9][11] - The decline in consumer confidence among millennials and Generation X in first-tier cities is linked to high housing prices, which can diminish their purchasing power and willingness to spend [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - Chongqing is actively promoting consumption through initiatives such as a new round of appliance upgrades and plans to enhance service consumption and new consumption cultivation, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of 5% this year [14] - The long-term solution for first-tier cities to overcome their "affluence disease" involves addressing housing prices to improve the attractiveness of these cities for both residents and transient populations [16]
余永定:不存在“消费驱动增长”,“十五五”应再推类似四万亿的大项目
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 08:04
Group 1 - The article argues that the notion of "consumption-driven" growth does not exist in the long-term economic growth context, emphasizing that economic growth is fundamentally driven by investment [3][5][10] - It highlights that the debate between "investment-driven" and "consumption-driven" growth should differentiate between long-term growth strategies and short-term macroeconomic adjustments [3][10] - The author suggests that the current low consumption rate in China is not necessarily indicative of a need for a consumption-driven model, as the relationship between consumption and economic growth is complex and requires further empirical research [3][5][11] Group 2 - The article references Marxist and neoclassical economic theories, stating that higher savings rates lead to increased investment and, consequently, faster economic growth, while higher consumption rates can slow down growth [4][5][9] - It discusses the importance of investment in driving technological progress, indicating that technological advancements are closely linked to various forms of investment [5][6] - The relationship between consumption and investment is characterized as a trade-off in the short term, but complementary in the long term, where decisions on resource allocation impact future consumption [10][11]