Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the mild recovery of the domestic economy and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment mainline in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be mainly volatile with funds preferring defensive allocations. After the meeting content is clear, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts may boost market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4530.60, 4512.20, 4492.20, and 4441.60 respectively, with increases of 17.20, 14.20, 15.40, and 12.00 respectively, and increases of 0.38%, 0.32%, 0.34%, and 0.27% respectively. The trading volumes were 63708.00, 3708.00, 20155.00, and 5003.00 respectively, and the open interests were 136475.00, 8471.00, 90771.00, and 26187.00 respectively, with changes of - 5723.00, 505.00, 851.00, and 425.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 2968.20, 2959.80, 2958.60, and 2943.80 respectively, with increases of 13.00, 10.00, 10.80, and 10.60 respectively, and increases of 0.44%, 0.34%, 0.37%, and 0.36% respectively. The trading volumes were 27688.00, 1268.00, 8640.00, and 1677.00 respectively, and the open interests were 53262.00, 2694.00, 23841.00, and 7797.00 respectively, with changes of - 2692.00, 228.00, - 354.00, and - 202.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 6983.20, 6926.20, 6812.20, and 6605.00 respectively, with increases of 42.00, 37.80, 40.20, and 39.00 respectively, and increases of 0.61%, 0.55%, 0.59%, and 0.59% respectively. The trading volumes were 64721.00, 4034.00, 23747.00, and 7294.00 respectively, and the open interests were 123278.00, 11229.00, 76774.00, and 32908.00 respectively, with changes of - 10513.00, 789.00, 1096.00, and 52.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 7213.40, 7137.20, 6987.80, and 6748.20 respectively, with increases of 28.00, 23.20, 26.60, and 27.40 respectively, and increases of 0.39%, 0.33%, 0.38%, and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 116454.00, 7618.00, 35706.00, and 12279.00 respectively, and the open interests were 181088.00, 17229.00, 102333.00, and 56566.00 respectively, with changes of - 11986.00, 1137.00, - 1707.00, and - 1212.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 18.40, - 8.40, - 57.00, and - 76.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 16.00, - 6.60, - 56.60, and - 74.20 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 4546.57, with an increase of 0.34%. The trading volume was 147.20 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3487.67 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2974.34, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 36.28 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 886.22 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 7012.81, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 141.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2399.13 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 7248.66, with an increase of 0.01%. The trading volume was 194.84 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3113.16 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption had increases of 0.48%, 0.41%, 0.66%, and 0.25% respectively; main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology had changes of - 0.79%, 0.28%, - 0.08%, and 1.09% respectively; telecommunications and public utilities had changes of 0.94% and - 0.23% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 300 Index were - 15.97, - 34.37, - 54.37, and - 104.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.85, - 28.85, - 48.65, and - 97.25 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the SSE 50 Index were - 6.14, - 14.54, - 15.74, and - 30.54 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 4.68, - 11.28, - 11.88, and - 26.08 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 500 Index were - 29.61, - 86.61, - 200.61, and - 407.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 45.96, - 102.56, - 214.96, and - 423.76 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 1000 Index were - 35.26, - 111.46, - 260.86, and - 500.46 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 52.87, - 127.07, - 280.07, and - 517.27 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3875.79, 13006.72, 7904.33, and 3067.48 respectively, with changes of - 0.06%, 0.40%, 0.26%, and 1.01% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25935.90, 49864.68, 6857.12, and 23899.33 respectively, with changes of 0.68%, 1.14%, 0.87%, and 0.11% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two sides emphasized mutual support on core interests and major concerns, exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, and witnessed the signing of cooperation documents in multiple fields [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized Chinese entrepreneurs to communicate with US - China Business Council and its member enterprises in Washington, and the council's president also attended a seminar with the US Semiconductor Industry Association and its member enterprises to discuss cooperation in the semiconductor field [2] - The Chinese government conducts export control of rare - earth - related items in accordance with laws and regulations, and approves compliant export applications for civilian use in a timely manner. The Chinese side urges Japan to correct its wrong words and deeds on the Taiwan issue [2] - The EU has terminated the lawsuit against China's trade - restriction measures at the WTO. China believes the EU's decision to terminate the lawsuit is correct [2] - More than 15 regions have issued "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, with a focus on artificial intelligence and other cutting - edge industries, each with its own layout and development direction [2] 6. Industry Information - The Future Network Test Facility, the first national major scientific and technological infrastructure in the field of information and communication in China, has been officially put into operation, providing open - test support for multiple fields and carrying out demonstration applications in cutting - edge directions [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a recommended national standard for food - delivery platforms, aiming to solve problems such as "ghost food - delivery" and promote the healthy development of the food - delivery industry [2] - In November, the number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 49,000, a seven - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 20%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 519,000, a year - on - year increase of about 5% [2] - In December, the supply of new housing is expected to be stable at a low level. The single - month supply of 28 cities is expected to decline by 12% month - on - month and 49% year - on - year, and the annual cumulative supply is expected to decline by 19% year - on - year. However, due to "quality improvement and quantity reduction" in supply and year - end discounts, the new - housing transactions in December are expected to have a pulse - like recovery [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. The previous trading day, the stock index fluctuated and recovered. The machinery and equipment sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector led the losses. The market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan. On December 3, the margin trading balance decreased by 3.713 billion yuan to 2.465189 trillion yuan [2] - In December 2025, the global financial market will face two "policy wind vanes": the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference. Their policy resonance will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and the investment mainline in 2026 [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The market expects the stock index to continue its long - term and steady upward trend. The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on technology, and the technology sector is a long - term direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with residents likely to increase their allocation of equity assets, and external funds may flow in as the Fed cuts interest rates and the RMB appreciates. Near the end of the year, funds are relatively cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4583.40, 4565.20, 4532.20, and 4489.00 respectively, with increases of 23.40, 22.20, 20.00, and 21.20, and increases of 0.51%, 0.49%, 0.44%, and 0.47% respectively. The trading volumes were 25910.00, 76820.00, 14405.00, and 5478.00, and the open interests were 29702.00, 156324.00, 67558.00, and 18583.00, with changes of - 3947.00, - 2502.00, - 388.00, and 316.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3018.00, 3011.00, 3006.40, and 2996.20 respectively, with increases of 17.40, 16.60, 15.60, and 13.60, and increases of 0.58%, 0.55%, 0.52%, and 0.46% respectively. The trading volumes were 8705.00, 36365.00, 6657.00, and 1812.00, and the open interests were 9339.00, 61909.00, 18559.00, and 5430.00, with changes of - 1795.00, - 1076.00, 283.00, and 134.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7116.60, 7054.80, 6875.40, and 6664.00 respectively, with changes of - 15.60, - 1.60, 0.40, and - 9.60, and changes of - 0.22%, - 0.02%, 0.01%, and - 0.14% respectively. The trading volumes were 24997.00, 83682.00, 17690.00, and 6223.00, and the open interests were 21873.00, 141911.00, 61676.00, and 23052.00, with changes of - 9350.00, 2214.00, 1590.00, and 39.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7390.40, 7298.20, 7068.80, and 6838.60 respectively, with changes of - 38.60, - 31.00, - 26.60, and - 28.20, and changes of - 0.52%, - 0.42%, - 0.37%, and - 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 37059.00, 149890.00, 27892.00, and 12626.00, and the open interests were 34672.00, 201080.00, 85839.00, and 42548.00, with changes of - 10135.00, 11495.00, - 716.00, and 1475.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 18.20, - 7.00, - 61.80, and - 92.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 14.60, - 6.00, - 73.00, and - 93.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4588.29, 3020.35, 7122.75, and 7387.21 respectively, with changes of 0.44%, 0.58%, - 0.40%, and - 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of shares) were 172.92, 48.20, 162.79, and 238.39, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 3852.30, 995.51, 2567.55, and 3671.73 [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Indexes**: The previous day's values of different CSI 300 industry indexes showed various changes. For example, the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications sectors had increases of 2.48%, 2.54%, and 1.08% respectively, while the main consumption, pharmaceutical, and IT sectors had decreases of - 0.33%, - 0.65%, and - 0.60% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were - 4.89, - 23.09, - 56.09, and - 99.29 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were - 2.35, - 9.35, - 13.95, and - 24.15 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were - 6.15, - 67.95, - 247.35, and - 458.75 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 3.19, - 89.01, - 318.41, and - 548.61 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, SME Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3946.74, 13080.09, 7943.55, and 3076.85 respectively, with changes of 0.18%, 0.00%, - 0.18%, and 0.25% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25830.65, 48702.98, 6642.16, and 23204.14 respectively, with changes of - 0.38%, - 3.22%, 0.38%, and 0.13% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **China - Japan Relations**: China has notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan have damaged the political foundation of China - Japan relations, and China will take counter - measures if necessary [2] - **Domestic Policies**: Deputy Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises. The National Immigration Administration has expanded the number of ports issuing one - time Taiwan Resident Permits to 100. Russia will implement a visa - free policy for Chinese citizens soon. The Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has signed a cooperation plan for the entire industrial chain of free trade zones [2] 6. Industry Information - **Real Estate**: The cumulative sales volume of second - hand homes in key cities increased slightly in the first 10 months of this year, with market activity declining in October. The sales volume in November is expected to recover month - on - month but face pressure year - on - year, and prices may continue to adjust [2] - **Organic Silicon**: The organic silicon industry is discussing production cuts, which are expected to be implemented gradually in early December [2] - **Vaccine Industry**: The China Vaccine Industry Association has issued an initiative against "involution - style" competition to maintain market price stability [2] - **Photovoltaic and Energy Storage**: The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration" to promote capacity structure optimization and industry self - regulation [2] - **Memory Market**: Due to a shortage of key chips, memory prices are expected to rise by about 50% by the second quarter of 2026, with traditional LPDDR4 at the highest risk of price increases [2] 7. Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The three major US indexes rose. The previous trading day saw a divergence in the stock index, with the non - ferrous metals and petrochemical sectors leading the gains and the comprehensive and real estate sectors leading the losses. The market trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan. On November 18, the margin trading balance increased by 2.581 billion yuan to 2.484901 trillion yuan [2]