Core Viewpoint - The company, Saint Bella, is positioned as the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with a strong growth trajectory and a target price of HKD 9.76, reflecting a 27X PE for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Saint Bella operates 96 postpartum care centers across 30 cities globally as of June 2025, indicating a robust expansion strategy [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% respectively from 2025 to 2027, driven by stable same-store growth and rapid store expansion [1][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle by creating a scarce high-end local brand that offers differentiated services, leading to strong brand recognition and premium pricing [2] - A unique supply chain innovation combines flexible hotel leasing with a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency through a digital system [2] - The company focuses on customer lifetime value through repeat purchases and high conversion rates, leveraging brand strength to achieve scale [2] Group 3: Growth Strategy - In the short to medium term, the company aims for domestic and international scale expansion and single-store efficiency, with potential domestic store numbers reaching 267-316 [3] - The long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments like postpartum recovery and health foods expected to grow over 30% annually [3] - The company plans to activate a broader demographic by developing standardized capabilities and AI solutions, potentially redefining the family care industry [3] Group 4: Market Positioning - Despite concerns about declining birth rates, the company believes that rising female self-care demands and changing family structures will mitigate these effects, as the penetration rate of postpartum care centers in China is only 6% compared to over 60% in Taiwan and South Korea [3] - The company's light-asset operational model enhances its risk resilience, allowing it to navigate industry cycles effectively [3] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 121 million, 205 million, and 306 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 0.19, 0.33, and 0.49 yuan [4] - The target price of HKD 9.76 is based on a 27X PE for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential and premium positioning in the market [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].