股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2024/8/21 2024/12/21 2025/4/21 2025/8/21 圣贝拉 恒生指数 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-08-22 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（港元） | 6.93 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）6.22 / 6.22 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | 43.74/ 43.74 | | 元） | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.00/ 6.08 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.35% | | 市盈率 | -7.44 | | 第一大股东 | 向华 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 圣贝拉 (2508.HK) 产康全周期业务快速增长，经调利润弹性释放 ⚫ 事件 公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by effective management strategies and expansion of service offerings [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 450 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, while total revenue including the management center was 523 million, up 35% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 38.78 million, reflecting a 126.1% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 327 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company exceeded its previous profit forecast, with net profit not less than 320 million and adjusted net profit not less than 38 million [1] Business Expansion - The company accelerated its expansion, adding 36 new stores in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total number of new stores opened in 2024 [1][2] - The number of maternity centers reached 113 by the end of the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from various brands [2] Service Offerings and Growth - The company is developing a comprehensive service matrix, with new business segments such as postpartum recovery, home care, and food services showing positive growth trends [1][2] - The conversion rate for secondary sales reached a record high of 93.8%, indicating strong customer retention and cross-selling potential [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for the maternity center business improved to 35.5%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from increased management output [2] - Marketing expenses decreased to 12.0% of revenue, and management expenses fell to 22.1%, contributing to an overall gross margin of 37.6% [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch the industry's first AI Agent product in the second half of 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability [3] - Long-term growth is anticipated through overseas expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and technological advancements [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting adjusted net profits of 121 million, 205 million, and 306 million for 2025 to 2027, respectively [3] - The target price is set at 9.76 HKD, with a "buy" rating based on the company's growth potential and market position [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 38.78 million RMB, up 126.1% year-on-year [1][12]. - The company is benefiting from an effective entrusted management model, leading to accelerated expansion and a significant increase in the number of stores [2][1]. - New business segments, including postpartum recovery and home care services, are showing positive growth trends, contributing to the overall service matrix [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached 450 million RMB, with a gross profit margin of 37.6%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 was 38.78 million RMB, reflecting a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [12][1]. Business Expansion - The number of maternity centers increased to 113 by the end of 1H25, with a net addition of 36 centers compared to the end of 2024 [2][1]. - The company’s home care service revenue grew by 41.7% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and customer retention [3][12]. Profitability and Efficiency - The marketing expense ratio decreased to 12.0%, and the management expense ratio fell to 22.1%, contributing to improved profitability [4][1]. - The company plans to launch an AI Agent product in the second half of 2025, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4][1]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 120.69 million RMB, 204.77 million RMB, and 306.16 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][10]. - The target price is set at 9.76 HKD, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's growth potential and market position [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the maternity and childcare industry in China, projecting significant growth in market size from 2020 to 2029, with an expected market size of 2,898.3 billion yuan by 2029 [6][30]. Core Insights - The maternity and childcare industry is experiencing a transformation driven by consumer demand for high-quality, professional, and personalized services, as traditional service models become less effective due to declining birth rates and changing parental expectations [2][58]. - Policy incentives are playing a crucial role in fostering the development of the industry, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the availability of affordable childcare services to balance the declining birth rates and support dual-income families [3][4][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The maternity and childcare industry encompasses a comprehensive service system focused on postpartum care and childcare for children aged 0-3, including postpartum care, childcare, and early education [19][21]. - The market size for the maternity and childcare industry is projected to grow steadily, with the childcare service market expected to dominate, reaching 2,727.1 billion yuan by 2029, while the maternity service market is anticipated to grow to 171.2 billion yuan [6][30]. Policy Analysis - The report highlights the synergistic effect of national policies and local innovations in promoting the maternity and childcare industry, with a focus on the transition from the "two-child" to "three-child" policy and the establishment of a universal childcare service system [4][35][39]. - Various government policies have been implemented to reduce the economic burden of childbirth and childcare on families, thereby encouraging a more favorable environment for child-rearing [42][39]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain includes upstream suppliers of maternal and infant products, healthcare service providers, and professional training institutions, while the midstream consists of service providers like maternity centers and childcare institutions [52][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating healthcare and educational resources within the industry to enhance service quality and accessibility [56][59]. Development Trend Analysis - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-end services, driven by increasing disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences, with families increasingly seeking specialized and high-quality childcare solutions [67][70]. - The demand for professional childcare services is expected to rise, particularly among dual-income families, leading to a significant increase in the need for full-day and emergency childcare services [3][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company Saint Bella [2] Core Insights - Saint Bella is building a comprehensive family care ecosystem, expanding from postpartum care to various health services for women and children, aiming to provide a one-stop health and care solution for modern families [3][20] - The family care market in China is projected to grow significantly, from RMB 3,928 billion in 2019 to RMB 7,113 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [3][27] - The company has adopted an asset-light operational strategy, partnering with high-end hotels to reduce capital expenditure while enhancing service flexibility [5][36] - Saint Bella's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 799 million in 2024 to RMB 1,957 million by 2027, with a forecasted net profit of RMB 3.19 billion in 2027 [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella was founded in 2017, focusing on high-end postpartum care through a light asset model in collaboration with luxury hotels [16][20] - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy, including Saint Bella, Baby Bella, and Bella Isla, to cater to different consumer segments [20][36] Main Business and Industry - The family care industry in China is expected to reach RMB 14,438 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2025 to 2030 [24][27] - The postpartum care segment is a significant contributor to Saint Bella's revenue, with projected income from postpartum care services increasing from RMB 3.45 billion in 2022 to RMB 5.36 billion in 2024 [34][46] Investment and Outlook - Saint Bella plans to expand its market presence internationally, having opened its first overseas center in Singapore and planning further expansion into the U.S. [92] - The company is investing in AI and digital technologies to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency, aiming to create a tech-enabled family care platform [91][92]

Core Insights - The company Saint Bella offers luxury postpartum care services with fees exceeding 1.16 million yuan, emphasizing high-end experiences and personalized care [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Saint Bella is founded by an Oxford graduate and a public relations expert from the fashion industry, indicating a strong background in both education and marketing [1] - Each facility is strategically located in top-tier hotels or standalone villas in first-tier cities, enhancing its luxury appeal [1] Group 2: Service Features - The company provides 24-hour one-on-one nursing care, showcasing a commitment to personalized attention for clients [1] - Additional offerings include art therapy, French handmade crafts, and endorsements from celebrities, further elevating the brand's luxurious image [1] Group 3: Potential Issues - Despite the luxurious facade, there are indications that Saint Bella may be facing significant operational challenges, described as "leaking from all sides" [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The postpartum care and recovery market in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing consumer spending and awareness of health and wellness among modern women, with the market expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2030 [1][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Postpartum care and recovery refers to the recovery and maintenance that women require after childbirth due to physical weakness, which is gaining attention as women invest more in their health and wellness [1][2]. - The market size for postpartum care and recovery in China is projected to reach 67.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, with postpartum recovery and care markets at 22.7 billion yuan and 44.8 billion yuan respectively [1][8]. Group 2: Market Segmentation - Postpartum care services can be categorized into confinement centers and postpartum doulas, with confinement centers gaining popularity due to their professional services and management, leading to a market size increase from 11.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 29.6 billion yuan in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 27.2% [1][10][12]. - The postpartum doula market is also growing, with a projected market size of 15.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1][16]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The increasing living standards and changing consumption concepts are driving more families to hire postpartum doulas for maternal and newborn care, while the rising wages of doulas due to supply-demand imbalances are further expanding the market [1][16]. - The consumer spending on healthcare has risen significantly, with per capita healthcare expenditure increasing from 1,165 yuan in 2015 to 2,547 yuan in 2024, indicating a growing willingness to invest in postpartum care [1][6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The postpartum care and recovery market in China is highly fragmented, with approximately 6,300 confinement centers and 2,600 postpartum doula service providers, leading to intense competition [1][18]. - The top five companies in the industry hold only 3.7% of the market share, indicating a diverse range of players, with brands like Saint Bella and Aidi Palace being well-known [1][18]. Group 5: Future Trends - The industry is expected to continue expanding, with a forecasted market size exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increased awareness of postpartum recovery among women [1][20]. - The industry is moving towards standardization and regulation, with ongoing efforts to improve oversight and quality standards [1][21]. - There is a trend towards more diverse and professional services, with companies enhancing employee training and exploring varied service offerings to meet consumer demands [1][23]. - The industry is also accelerating its digital transformation, utilizing information technology to improve service efficiency and quality [1][24].

Core Insights - The maternal and infant care industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by consumption upgrades, despite a historical low in birth rates in 2023 [1][13][9] - The market size of the maternal and infant care industry reached 600 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.75% from 2023 to 2025 [1][13][15] - The demand for certified maternal care professionals (such as confinement nannies) is high, with a projected shortage of 1 to 2 million professionals by 2024 [1][17] Industry Overview - Maternal and infant care focuses on comprehensive care during the postpartum period and early stages of newborns, combining medical care with parenting skills [2] - Services include daily care, health management, and early developmental interventions, requiring professionals with medical backgrounds [2] Industry Chain - The maternal and infant care industry has established a complete industrial chain, including upstream raw material supply, midstream product manufacturing and service provision, and downstream sales channels [3] Development Background - Maternal and infant care has become a key component of national strategies, supported by various policies aimed at enhancing service quality and safety [6][7] Current Market Analysis - The industry is characterized by a structural growth trend, with increasing demand for high-end and intelligent products, as well as professional services like postpartum recovery [1][13][15] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a multi-layered competitive structure, with international brands dominating the high-end market while local brands focus on differentiation [21][22] Development Trends - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with a shift towards comprehensive health management, accelerated smart technology adoption, and simultaneous standardization and market expansion [23][24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO wave of Chinese chain brands in Hong Kong reflects a shift in the market, highlighting the maturity and capital potential of the chain business model across various industries [3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, there has been a noticeable trend of Chinese chain brands opting for IPOs in Hong Kong rather than returning to A-shares, driven by the more favorable regulatory environment and shorter waiting periods in Hong Kong [3][9]. - The preference for Hong Kong is attributed to its more commercialized scrutiny of consumer and chain enterprises, focusing on real market operational capabilities rather than technology-driven narratives [9][11]. Group 2: Business Models - The three companies—Chow Tai Fook, Saint Bella, and Ying Tong Holdings—represent diverse sectors but share a common growth strategy based on replicable business models and efficient organizational systems [6][8]. - Chow Tai Fook's strategy involves penetrating lower-tier markets with over 5,000 stores, utilizing a standardized supply chain and franchise system [8]. - Saint Bella has transformed the labor-intensive maternity care industry into a standardized service model, focusing on quantifiable metrics and training mechanisms [8]. - Ying Tong Holdings is evolving from a traditional beauty product distributor to a multi-brand retail matrix through self-operated stores and beauty services [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among chain enterprises has shifted from merely expanding the number of stores to enhancing system capabilities, including backend systems, talent development, and supply chain coordination [12]. - The current market emphasizes the importance of operational stability and efficiency over rapid expansion, indicating a trend towards "organizational professionalism" in the chain industry [12][13]. - Successful chain businesses are characterized by their ability to maintain control over processes and ensure quality through detailed operational standards [12][13].