近日，全球家庭护理板块首家上市挂牌公司——圣贝拉集团(02508)正式披露其登陆港交所后的首份业 绩答卷。在宏观经济承压、生育率持续走低的大环境下，这家产后护理龙头不仅成功抵御宏观因素震 荡，更一举交出"逆袭级"成绩单。 政策红利加持下的业绩数据跃升 今年7月底，国家育儿补贴方案正式公布，为母婴行业带来重大利好。据光大证券研究所测算，国家育 儿补贴政策有望拉动社会消费品零售总额增长约0.14-0.2个百分点。 在育儿补贴、延长产假、托育费用个税抵扣等"真金白银"政策与女性"悦己"意识、家庭结构变化的双重 催化下，中国产后护理及修复行业渗透率持续提升。根据沙利文报告显示，2025年家庭护理行业的规模 将增长至人民币8,053亿元。其中产后护理及修复行业依旧保持强劲增长势头，根据弗若斯特沙利文的 预测，2025年家庭护理及修复行业的规模将增长至人民币793亿元，预计2025年至2030年的行业複合年 增長率将达到20.4%。华泰证券分析师在最新研报中认为，家庭护理行业板块增长空间在未来仍将进一 步打开。 作为家庭护理头部企业的圣贝拉，率先站上行业风口。相较于其他月子中心，圣贝拉以涵盖新生儿护 理、产后修复、健康食 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - Saint Bella is positioning itself as a leader in the postpartum care and recovery industry, aiming to become the "first global family quality care stock" through a differentiated business model and strong financial performance [1][4]. Group 1: Market Position - Saint Bella holds the top position in the postpartum care and recovery sector in Asia and China, with a market share of approximately 1.2% based on projected 2024 revenues [2]. - The company is recognized as the fastest-growing large-scale postpartum care and recovery group in China, leading the industry in revenue growth rates from 2022 to 2024 [2][7]. - Saint Bella is the first operator in the mainland to expand its postpartum care centers beyond China, establishing a global service network [3]. Group 2: Business Model - The company has developed a comprehensive service ecosystem that covers prenatal, postpartum, and family childcare, moving beyond the traditional single-service model [3]. - The business model consists of three stages: 1. Establishing a foundation of professional care with a tiered service design [3]. 2. Extending care services into home settings to meet ongoing needs after hospital discharge [3]. 3. Creating a health consumption ecosystem with high-end health food brands focused on women's nutrition [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Saint Bella's revenue has shown strong growth, with figures of 472 million, 560 million, and 799 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.15% [7]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with nearly 30% of total income in 2024 coming from services outside postpartum care, indicating reduced reliance on a single business line [7]. - The gross profit has also expanded, with gross profits of 141 million, 205 million, and 270 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, achieving a CAGR of 38.42% [8]. - Adjusted net profits have doubled over two years, reaching 42.26 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 103.43% [8][12]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Saint Bella's strategy of integrating professional care, home settings, and health consumption is redefining industry standards and creating competitive barriers [4]. - The company is expected to accelerate its global expansion, potentially becoming a representative of Chinese family care solutions on the world stage [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 16.5% increase in adjusted EBITDA despite headwinds, with the first quarter typically being the lightest volume quarter of the year [16][30] - Average visits per clinic per day reached a record high of 31.4, with a strong finish in March at 33.2 visits per clinic per day [6][31] - The net rate for the first quarter was $105.66, an increase of $2.29 per visit compared to the previous year, despite a 2.9% Medicare rate cut [32][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Physical therapy revenues increased by 16.4% year-over-year to $156.4 million, driven by higher net rates and acquisitions [35] - The injury prevention (IIP) segment saw a revenue increase of 28.8% year-over-year, with gross profit up 13.1% [38] - The physical therapy margin was reported at 16.3%, down from 17.9% in the previous year, but above 20% in March [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Workers' compensation as a percentage of revenue increased from 10% in the first quarter of last year to 10.9% this year, the highest since 2020 [34] - The company lost approximately 26,000 visits due to weather impacts in the first quarter, with significant losses in January and February [31][48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing reimbursement rates through contract negotiations and expanding its workers' compensation business [33] - There is an emphasis on acquisitions, with the Metro acquisition contributing significantly to revenue growth [35][21] - The company is exploring home care capabilities, which are seen as a growth opportunity due to patient demand and flexibility for clinicians [110][116] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about demand and the potential for recovery following weather-related disruptions [48] - The company is preparing for potential economic downturns, citing past experiences and a strong demand outlook [52][54] - Management is hopeful about updating guidance in the coming months as performance improves [27] Other Important Information - The company has a favorable debt position with $129.4 million in term loan debt at a rate of 4.7% and a $175 million revolving credit facility with only $28 million drawn [40] - The corporate office costs were 8.8% of net revenue, down from 9% in the previous year [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: What was the guiding volume inside the negative mature clinic revenue? - Management indicated that weather had a significant impact on mature clinic revenue, particularly in established markets like Nashville and Texas [47][50] Question: How has the business performed during past economic downturns? - Management noted that during the 2008-2009 recession, the company continued to grow and acquire facilities despite some negative impacts on same-store volume [52][54] Question: What are the drivers of IIP outperformance? - The IIP segment's growth is attributed to effective injury prevention strategies that reduce reported injuries and improve employee satisfaction [62][66] Question: What is the outlook for staffing during a potential recession? - Management stated that staffing availability could improve during a recession, but it is difficult to predict [56][57] Question: Can you provide more details on the commercial rate increases? - Commercial rates increased by over 3%, with workers' compensation rates also showing strong growth [88] Question: What are the expectations for same-store volume growth? - Management expects to see growth in same-store volume for the year, particularly after overcoming weather-related challenges [92] Question: What initiatives are in place to trim excess costs? - The company is actively reviewing its top partnerships to identify areas for improvement and cost control [101]