Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 12 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 454.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.53 billion yuan, up 58.87% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was approximately 12.24%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. This improvement is attributed to the company's strong cost control and operational efficiency in Hangzhou [8]. - The company recorded a sales amount of 527.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year, with a significant portion of sales coming from Hangzhou [8]. - The company continues to focus its investments in Hangzhou, with 73% of its land reserves located in this area, indicating a strategic emphasis on maintaining market share [8]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.90, 1.08, and 1.10 yuan respectively, reflecting a stable growth outlook [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 69,152 million yuan, with a slight decline of 1.8% year-on-year. The net profit for the same year is estimated at 2,546 million yuan, with a growth rate of 0.7% [4]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 259,083 million yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 66.9% [9]. - The report indicates a projected operating income growth rate of 15.0% for 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 10.3% [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 18 yuan over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in rental income from its held properties, with total commercial operation revenue reaching 8.14 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1]. - The real estate development business is facing challenges, with sales amounting to 1.66 billion yuan and sales area of 214,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.4% and 54.2% respectively [2]. - The company has successfully issued offshore bonds and medium-term notes, indicating an improving financing environment [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Operations - The total revenue from commercial operations for the first seven months of 2025 was 8.14 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year, with July alone contributing 1.2 billion yuan, a growth of 8.1% [1]. - The company holds 176 properties with a total area of 16.225 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively [1]. - Average rental income per project increased by 6.1% to 43.146 million yuan [1]. Real Estate Sales - The company reported a sales amount of 1.66 billion yuan and a sales area of 214,000 square meters in the first seven months, down 52.4% and 54.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average sales price was 7,760.6 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year [2]. Debt Financing - In June 2025, the company successfully issued 300 million USD in offshore bonds, followed by a 1 billion yuan medium-term note in August with a coupon rate of 2.68% [3]. - The dual business model of holding and developing properties is enhancing cash flow, allowing the company to stabilize sales prices while slowing turnover [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected to decline significantly from 2025 to 2027, with estimates of -28.4%, -34.4%, and -30.9% respectively [4]. - Net profit growth is expected to be 9.3%, 31.2%, and 15.6% over the same period [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.59, compared to the industry average of 0.79 [4].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 311,666 | 273,124 | 243,067 | 230,411 | | 同比增速(%) | -10.2% | -12.4% | -11.0% | -5.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,001 | 5,389 | 5,364 | 5,870 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.6% | 7.8% | -0.5% | 9.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.49 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 19 | 19 | 17 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 30 保利发展（600048）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 投资积极性提升，融资优势明显 目标价：10.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 11.4 yuan, based on a projected 12 times PE for 2025 [4][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the "Good House" era, with profitability gradually recovering. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.66% [2][4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: Revenue of 69.152 billion yuan, net profit of 2.546 billion yuan - 2025: Revenue of 72.550 billion yuan, net profit of 2.987 billion yuan - 2026: Revenue of 70.279 billion yuan, net profit of 3.281 billion yuan - 2027: Revenue of 62.982 billion yuan, net profit of 3.331 billion yuan [2][9]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates: -1.8% (2024), 4.9% (2025), -3.1% (2026), -10.4% (2027) - Net profit growth rates: 0.7% (2024), 17.3% (2025), 9.9% (2026), 1.5% (2027) [2][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.82 yuan - 2025: 0.96 yuan - 2026: 1.05 yuan - 2027: 1.07 yuan [2][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE ratio: 12 (2024), 10 (2025), 10 (2026), 9 (2027) - PB ratio: 1.1 (2024), 1.1 (2025), 1.0 (2026), 0.9 (2027) [2][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence in Hangzhou, with 69% of its sales coming from this region. It has been the sales champion in Hangzhou for seven consecutive years, indicating significant scale advantages [8][9]. - In 2024, the company plans to focus its investments primarily in Hangzhou, with an investment intensity of approximately 40%. The company has acquired 23 new land reserve projects, with only one located outside Hangzhou [8][9]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of around 100 billion yuan in 2024, despite a projected 27% decline in sales amount [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strong cost control capabilities and operational efficiency, which are expected to support a gradual recovery in gross margins as older projects are completed [8][9].