Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 18 yuan over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in rental income from its held properties, with total commercial operation revenue reaching 8.14 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1]. - The real estate development business is facing challenges, with sales amounting to 1.66 billion yuan and sales area of 214,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.4% and 54.2% respectively [2]. - The company has successfully issued offshore bonds and medium-term notes, indicating an improving financing environment [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Operations - The total revenue from commercial operations for the first seven months of 2025 was 8.14 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year, with July alone contributing 1.2 billion yuan, a growth of 8.1% [1]. - The company holds 176 properties with a total area of 16.225 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively [1]. - Average rental income per project increased by 6.1% to 43.146 million yuan [1]. Real Estate Sales - The company reported a sales amount of 1.66 billion yuan and a sales area of 214,000 square meters in the first seven months, down 52.4% and 54.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average sales price was 7,760.6 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year [2]. Debt Financing - In June 2025, the company successfully issued 300 million USD in offshore bonds, followed by a 1 billion yuan medium-term note in August with a coupon rate of 2.68% [3]. - The dual business model of holding and developing properties is enhancing cash flow, allowing the company to stabilize sales prices while slowing turnover [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected to decline significantly from 2025 to 2027, with estimates of -28.4%, -34.4%, and -30.9% respectively [4]. - Net profit growth is expected to be 9.3%, 31.2%, and 15.6% over the same period [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.59, compared to the industry average of 0.79 [4].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 311,666 | 273,124 | 243,067 | 230,411 | | 同比增速(%) | -10.2% | -12.4% | -11.0% | -5.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,001 | 5,389 | 5,364 | 5,870 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.6% | 7.8% | -0.5% | 9.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.49 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 19 | 19 | 17 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 30 保利发展（600048）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 投资积极性提升，融资优势明显 目标价：10.6 ...

"好房子"时代受益者，盈利有望逐渐修复 目标价：11.4 元 事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司研究 住宅物业开发 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | | 目标价：11.4 元 | | --- | --- | | 滨江集团（002244）2024 年报点评 "好房子"时代受益者，盈利有望逐渐修复 | 推荐（维持） 当前价：10.05 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 ❖ 2024 年公司实现营业收入 691.52 亿元，同比下降 1.83%；实现归母净利润 25.46 亿元，同比增长 0.66%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 69,152 | 72,550 | 70,279 | 62,982 | | 同比增速(%) | -1.8% | 4.9% | -3.1% | -10.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,54 ...