阿塞拜疆"Minval"网9月22日报道，阿塞拜疆经济部副部长巴什尔利表 示，阿主要经济目标已由维持宏观经济稳定变为实现经济多元化，优先发展非 资源性经济。其中，工业生产是吸引投资和创造就业的重要领域。目前，有 170多家工业生产企业在阿运营，累计实施项目金额约40亿美元，创造超1万个 就业岗位。阿正致力于发展农产品加工和工业生产，加快引进新技术，以打造 一个全面、技术先进、可持续增长的经济体。 （原标题：阿塞拜疆工业企业累计实施项目金额约40亿美元） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate policy support is increasing, and the active real - estate transactions in first - tier cities are expected to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The policy toolbox may be further opened, aiming for a soft landing of the market [2]. - This week, the demand side shows that new - home sales are growing year - on - year, and automobile consumption is marginally improving. The production side has stable industrial production with the PTA operating rate recovering. The investment side sees the apparent consumption of rebar improving and its price rising. The trade side shows an increase in port throughput and a decline in export container shipping prices. The price side has a drop in agricultural product prices and a stable operation of the commodity futures market [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand: New - home sales increase year - on - year, and automobile consumption marginally improves - Real - estate: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities has improved both in terms of week - on - week and year - on - year. First - tier cities have seen a significant year - on - year increase. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities has mostly increased week - on - week. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the second - hand housing transaction areas have increased [3][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption has recovered week - on - week, and movie - watching consumption has increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index has decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership has marginally declined [3]. 2. Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and the PTA operating rate recovers - Mid - and upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces has increased week - on - week. The PTA operating rate has recovered, rising 1.4 pct to 77.2%. The operating rate of polyester filament has slightly increased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants has decreased [4][51]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased [4]. 3. Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and the rebar price rises - The apparent consumption of rebar has improved, and its price has increased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate has remained flat week - on - week, the cement inventory ratio has increased, and the cement price has remained flat [5][67]. 4. Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: Port container throughput has recovered, and the CCFI composite index has decreased week - on - week. The freight rates of European routes have decreased, while those of the US West and US East routes have increased. The BDI index has increased week - on - week [6][78]. - Import: The CICFI composite index has increased 0.4% week - on - week [6][79]. 5. Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and the commodity futures market operates stably - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices has decreased 0.3% week - on - week. Egg prices have risen, while fruit, vegetable, and pork prices have declined [7][90]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index has increased 1.1% week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price has increased 1.4%, COMEX gold futures price has increased 0.9%, and LME copper spot price has increased 0.7%. In the commodity futures market, glass, coke, and coking coal have seen relatively large increases, while caustic soda and lithium carbonate have seen declines [7][95][104]. 6. Interest - rate bond tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has reached 99.3% - Next week (9/22 - 9/26), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 447.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 138.9 billion yuan. As of September 19, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year is 99.3%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.0%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 79.8% [8][110][115]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank adjusts the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation - On September 15, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that relevant foreign exchange management measures need to be optimized and adjusted to adapt to the new situation of the real - estate market. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued measures to expand service consumption. - On September 19, the central bank adjusted the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid [121].

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - home transactions in the real estate market showed a month - on - month recovery but were still lower than the seasonal level year - on - year, while the second - hand housing transactions achieved year - on - year growth, indicating a divergence between new and second - hand housing. - The automotive consumption recovered, while the movie box office declined. - The industrial operation in the production field was stable, and the infrastructure construction maintained resilience. - In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and the cement price rebounded from a low level. - Most commodity futures declined, with significant drops in coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass. - The central government highly concerned about the continuously pressured real estate market. It was expected that the real estate policy toolbox might be further opened, but the probability of a large - scale stimulus was low. Instead, the market would achieve a new balance through policy support [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New - home transactions increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 1.745 million square meters, up 10% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. Second - hand housing transactions in key cities mostly increased month - on - month and year - on - year. - Automotive consumption increased week - on - week, while movie - going consumption increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership declined marginally [2][12]. 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and the rebar operating rate remained flat week - on - week. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 75.1%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 0.9 pct to 91.4%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.2 pct to 30.7%. - In the downstream sector, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but the rebar price decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 22, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.6% to 1.948 million tons, and the rebar price decreased by 1.8% to 3,346.2 yuan/ton. - The cement price increased by 1.6% to 105.1 points week - on - week. As of the week ending August 15 (latest data), the cement shipping rate remained basically flat at 40.1%, and the cement inventory ratio decreased by 1.2 pct to 61.6% [64]. 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, the container throughput at ports decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week. The freight rates of European, West - American, and East - American routes decreased week - on - week. The BDI index also decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week [73]. 3.5 Price - The agricultural product price index increased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pork price decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, while the egg price increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the vegetable price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the fruit price decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. - The Nanhua industrial products price index decreased by 1.4% week - on - week. The spot price of Brent crude oil remained flat week - on - week, the COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. Most commodity futures declined, with asphalt, caustic soda, and industrial silicon having the highest increases, and coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass having the largest decreases [6][83]. 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (August 25 - 29), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 382.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.4 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 237.1 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 243.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank financial bonds is 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 140 billion yuan. - As of August 22, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year was 96.7%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 69.9% [7][106]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The government emphasized taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, such as promoting urban renewal, renovating urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement - oriented housing demand. - Other policies included regulating the construction and operation of PPP projects, exempting personal income tax on childcare subsidies, conducting MLF operations, standardizing the photovoltaic industry competition order, etc. [117]

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation indicates that the economy is transitioning into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset pricing [2][3]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an isolated event but could become a regular occurrence as the economy evolves [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the changing landscape of industrialization and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates a broad-based slowdown in China's economy, increasing pressure on the government to stimulate growth and consumer spending amid external challenges such as tariffs from the U.S. [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial production growth both decelerated in July compared to June, suggesting a tougher economic environment in the latter half of the year [1] - Industrial production in China increased by 5.7% year-on-year at the beginning of the third quarter, a decline from June's 6.8% growth [2]

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from flat to an increase of 0.4% [1][2] - The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits in Sichuan fell by 3.9% and 1.7% respectively on a month-on-month basis, while pork prices increased by 0.5%. The decline in vegetable and fruit prices was attributed to high temperatures and low rainfall affecting production, but ample market supply kept prices down [2] - The prices for air tickets, travel agency services, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rentals rose due to the peak summer travel season, with air ticket prices increasing by 20.1%, travel agency fees by 13.9%, hotel prices by 5.0%, and vehicle rental costs by 4.8% [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continued its downward trend in July, decreasing by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Month-on-month, the PPI fell by 1.2%, but the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant analysis framework indicates that industries with low valuation (P/E percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) (Quadrant II) exhibit significant excess returns, while high valuation and low dividend yield industries (Quadrant IV) face notable correction risks. The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a high valuation trap (Quadrant IV) in 2021 to a low valuation and high dividend yield zone (Quadrant II) after four years of valuation digestion, enhancing its investment attractiveness and safety margin due to a low valuation level (12.0% historical percentile) and a relatively high dividend yield (3.6%) [2][6]. Group 1: Valuation-Dividend Quadrant Model - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant model is constructed using valuation and dividend dimensions to assess industry allocation value. The horizontal axis represents the P/E percentile, calculated using dynamic historical percentiles from the past 20 years, while the vertical axis represents the rolling dividend yield from the past 12 months. Quadrant I includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant II includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant III includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries, and Quadrant IV includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries. Historically, industries in Quadrant II tend to have better risk-return ratios and allocation value, while Quadrant IV industries require caution [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Validation - As of the end of 2023, the banking industry was in Quadrant II, with a dividend yield of 6.0% and a P/E percentile of only 0.3%. This configuration highlighted the industry's allocation value, leading to a significant outperformance of the banking sector, which rose by 52.83% from early 2024 to August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market by 30.64 percentage points [18]. - In contrast, during the market peak in Q3 2021, the food and beverage and power equipment industries were in Quadrant IV, with dividend yields of 1.1% and 0.4%, and P/E historical percentiles of 78.0% and 82.3%, respectively. These industries subsequently underperformed the market, with returns from Q4 2021 to August 8, 2025, being -34.82% and -34.75%, lagging the broader market by approximately 35 percentage points [19]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry Transition - The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a risk zone to a value zone, entering Quadrant II as of August 8, 2025, with a P/E percentile of 12.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6%. This shift signifies a qualitative change, as the current low valuation level and relatively high dividend yield enhance the industry's allocation cost-effectiveness and safety margin [22]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to over 7%, reaching 7.28% as of August 3, 2025, up from 6.35% on July 27, 2025. The increase is primarily driven by infrastructure (asphalt operating rate) and durable goods consumption (passenger car sales) [7][25]. - In real estate, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the first week of August across 67 cities, compared to -22% in July [8][29]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities was 31.7% as of August 6, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while cement dispatch rates were at 39.2%, slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year [33].