固定收益 | 固定收益定期 二手稳增长，新房仍承压 证券研究报告 生产：工业生产运行平稳，PTA 开工率回落 高频跟踪周报 20250823 核心关注点：地产新房成交环比回暖但同比仍低于季节性，二手房成交量 实现同比增长，新房二手房分化；汽车消费回暖，电影票房下降；生产领 域工业运行平稳，基建开工维持韧性；投资方面螺纹钢消费量价分化，水 泥价格低位回升；商品期货多数下跌，焦煤、碳酸锂、玻璃下跌幅度较大。 从 2024 年 9 月政治局会议提出"止跌回稳"，到今年 6 月国常会强调"更 大力度"，再到 8 月 18 日，国务院全体会议要求"采取有力措施"，仍显 示出中央对楼市持续承压的高度关注。会议提出"结合城市更新"、"推进 城中村和危旧房改造"等表述，一定程度指明了房地产领域的投资新方向 和模式转型，注重对现有存量的优化提升。 往后展望，预计地产政策工具箱或进一步打开，但大幅刺激的概率或不高， 而是通过政策力量让市场软着陆，实现一个相对平稳、不再大幅下行的新 平衡。相关措施如加快城中村改造、加大地产收储、核心城市限购进一步 松绑、下调住房贷款利率、降低首付比例、减免换购住房的个人所得税等。 需求：新房成交环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation indicates that the economy is transitioning into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset pricing [2][3]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an isolated event but could become a regular occurrence as the economy evolves [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the changing landscape of industrialization and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

Core Viewpoint - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant analysis framework indicates that industries with low valuation (P/E percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) (Quadrant II) exhibit significant excess returns, while high valuation and low dividend yield industries (Quadrant IV) face notable correction risks. The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a high valuation trap (Quadrant IV) in 2021 to a low valuation and high dividend yield zone (Quadrant II) after four years of valuation digestion, enhancing its investment attractiveness and safety margin due to a low valuation level (12.0% historical percentile) and a relatively high dividend yield (3.6%) [2][6]. Group 1: Valuation-Dividend Quadrant Model - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant model is constructed using valuation and dividend dimensions to assess industry allocation value. The horizontal axis represents the P/E percentile, calculated using dynamic historical percentiles from the past 20 years, while the vertical axis represents the rolling dividend yield from the past 12 months. Quadrant I includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant II includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant III includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries, and Quadrant IV includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries. Historically, industries in Quadrant II tend to have better risk-return ratios and allocation value, while Quadrant IV industries require caution [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Validation - As of the end of 2023, the banking industry was in Quadrant II, with a dividend yield of 6.0% and a P/E percentile of only 0.3%. This configuration highlighted the industry's allocation value, leading to a significant outperformance of the banking sector, which rose by 52.83% from early 2024 to August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market by 30.64 percentage points [18]. - In contrast, during the market peak in Q3 2021, the food and beverage and power equipment industries were in Quadrant IV, with dividend yields of 1.1% and 0.4%, and P/E historical percentiles of 78.0% and 82.3%, respectively. These industries subsequently underperformed the market, with returns from Q4 2021 to August 8, 2025, being -34.82% and -34.75%, lagging the broader market by approximately 35 percentage points [19]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry Transition - The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a risk zone to a value zone, entering Quadrant II as of August 8, 2025, with a P/E percentile of 12.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6%. This shift signifies a qualitative change, as the current low valuation level and relatively high dividend yield enhance the industry's allocation cost-effectiveness and safety margin [22]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to over 7%, reaching 7.28% as of August 3, 2025, up from 6.35% on July 27, 2025. The increase is primarily driven by infrastructure (asphalt operating rate) and durable goods consumption (passenger car sales) [7][25]. - In real estate, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the first week of August across 67 cities, compared to -22% in July [8][29]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities was 31.7% as of August 6, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while cement dispatch rates were at 39.2%, slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points (previous value: 126.9 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.4 points (previous increase: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds was 4.7% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index was 126.3 (previous value: 126.2), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales was 43.4 (previous value: 43.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment was 120.1 (previous value: 120.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase: 4.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded; the high - frequency index for exports was 143.8 (previous value: 143.9), with a week - on - week increase of 3.1 points (previous increase: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption was 119.8 (previous value: 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.7 points (previous increase: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency index for inventory was 161.1 (previous value: 161.1), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The high - frequency index for transportation was 129.6 (previous value: 129.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The high - frequency index for financing was 233.9 (previous value: 233.3), with a week - on - week increase of 29.7 points (previous increase: 29.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [2][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, and financing was constructed, and the Guosheng Fixed - Income Fundamental High - Frequency Index and its sub - items were developed [8]. - During August 4 - 8, 2025, the Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points and an expanding growth rate [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Declined Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate was 63.5% (previous value: 62.8%); the polyester operating rate was 86.2% (previous value: 86.8%); the semi - tire operating rate was 74.4% (previous value: 74.5%); the full - tire operating rate was 61.0% (previous value: 61.1%); the PTA operating rate was 75.9% (previous value: 79.7%); the PX operating rate was 82.4% (previous value: 82.4%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 38.0 tons (previous value: 47.5 tons) [11][13]. Real Estate Sales: Transaction Land Premium Rate Declined - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 17.9 square meters (previous value: 24.4 square meters); the transaction land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.6% (previous value: 9.0%) [22]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declined - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 31.7% (previous value: 33.1%) [32]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continued to Decline - The CCFI index was 1201 points (previous value: 1232 points); the RJ/CRB index was 293.6 points (previous value: 301.9 points) [39]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continued to Rise - The daily average movie box office was 24,143 yuan (previous value: 23,068 yuan) [52]. CPI: Vegetable Wholesale Prices Continued to Rise - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.4 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.2 yuan/kg) [59]. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continued to Rise - The ex - works price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton (previous value: 658 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 72 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9613 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9672 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2592 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2596 US dollars/ton) [65]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Remained Stable Overall - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3886 person - times (previous value: 3902 person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights was 14,580 (previous value: 14,562) [77]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increased - The electrolytic aluminum inventory was 19.7 tons (previous value: 18.1 tons); the soda ash inventory was 185.8 tons (previous value: 179.0 tons) [85]. Financing: Local Government Bond Financing Continued to Decline - The net financing of local government bonds was 828 billion yuan (previous value: 2425 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 1973 billion yuan (previous value: 134 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate was 0.7% (previous value: 0.55%); the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate was - 0.9% (previous value: - 1.09%) [93].

Group 1: Agriculture and Livestock - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that China's pig production capacity is currently excessive, leading to a plan to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads, maintaining a total of around 39.5 million heads [1] Group 2: Real Estate - Following the introduction of new policies in Beijing's real estate market, there has been a significant increase in the number of new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home registrations rising by about 20% and second-hand home registrations by approximately 30% compared to the previous week [1] Group 3: Financial Markets - Southbound capital inflow reached a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD this year, marking the first time it has surpassed 900 billion HKD, although the inflow for the week of August 4 to August 10 decreased by 63.15% [1] Group 4: Industrial Performance - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.76 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, and a net profit of 12.11 billion CNY, up 38.6%, both achieving historical highs for the period [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].