chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 2025 年 10 月 20 日 Q3 经济放缓符合预期，关注政策性金融工具效果 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 Q3 经济数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn GDP：Q3 经济放缓符合预期，建筑业拖累较大 1、2025Q3 实际 GDP 同比增长 4.8%、符合万得一致预期。Q3 GDP 环比为 1.1%， 较前值提高 0.1 个百分点；分产业看，第二产业走弱较多，推测 Q3 建筑业 GDP 的降幅可能明显走扩；价格水平温和修复，Q3 名义 GDP 与实际 GDP 的增速差 较前值收窄了 0.2 个百分点。 2、出口回暖提振工业生产，服务业维持韧性。9 月工业增加值同比提高了 1.3 个百分点至 6.5%，汽车、食品制造、油气开采、茶酒饮料等贡献较大；9 月服 务业生产同比持平前值的 5.6%，信息软件技术、租赁商务服务边际改善，金融 等略有回落；产销率延续处于历年最低水平，但较 2024 年同期的差距略有收窄。 3、居民可支配收入小幅降速：财产净收入增速明显放缓，居民投入产出端呈"工 时小幅增加、时薪增速微降 ...

Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]