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兼评8月企业利润数据:低基数与反内卷共振修复利润
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-27 10:08
2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁(分析师) 陈策(分析师) chence@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 证书编号:S0790524020002 事件:2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%,前值-1.7%;营业收入累 计同比 2.3%,前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进,工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点;利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%, 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看(利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比),三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价(PPI)的负 贡献见底回升,利(利润率同比)由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看,8 月 国企利润改善较快,明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进,利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...
兼评7月经济数据和个人消费贷贴息:内需放缓,个人消费贷贴息或提振社零0.2个百分点
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-16 07:49
Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]