Research Views Overall Opinions - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The September contract continued to fluctuate on Tuesday, with the forward contract prices showing strength. The 2603 contract led the increase, and the prices stabilized and rebounded. Northeast corn prices were slightly weak, while those in North China remained stable with limited adjustments. The prices in the sales areas were generally stable, with a slight rebound in some ports. Technically, the corn futures prices are in a consolidation period after a short - term rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. The CBOT soybeans rose on Tuesday due to the bullish supply - demand report. The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the global sunflower seed production, U.S. soybean planting area, and global oilseed production. In China, concerns about fourth - quarter supply, the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, and higher import costs all pushed up the protein meal futures prices. The strategy is a long - only mindset and month - to - month positive spread participation [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. The BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday due to favorable export data. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory was lower than expected. In China, the three major oils were strong, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a positive impact on the market. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The main 2509 contract of eggs stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The terminal digestion was stable, and most traders purchased as needed. The egg prices in most sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamentals remained weak due to high chicken inventory and weak demand. In the future, there may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the high is likely to be lower than last year. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to fluctuate. The main 2511 contract of pig futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday and then declined slightly at the end of the session. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly. After continuous price cuts, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts, but due to weak demand, prices in many northern regions decreased, leading to a slight decline in the national average price. In the future, as the weather cools down, demand is expected to recover, which will support pig prices [2]. Specific Data and Events - The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the 2025/26 global sunflower seed production by 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million tons, the U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, and the global oilseed production by 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million tons. The U.S. soybean single - yield was adjusted up by 1.1 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, the export volume was adjusted down by 40 million bushels, and the ending inventory was adjusted down by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [1]. - The preliminary result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and a 75.8% margin needed to be levied, which would limit the import of Canadian rapeseed [1]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.11 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons [1]. Market Information - Since August 12, 2025, at 12:01, the additional tariff measures on U.S. imports have been adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on U.S. imports will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [3]. - The preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and starting from August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% margin when importing Canadian rapeseed [3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report showed that the expected U.S. soybean production in 2025/2026 was 4.292 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 290 million bushels, and the single - yield was 53.6 bushels per acre, all different from market expectations [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spread charts for various agricultural products, including corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybean 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1 [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and has rich experience in leading research teams [28]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and has published many articles in industry journals [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [28].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 棉价走势震荡偏强，郑糖跟随外盘小幅回落 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13805元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15136元/吨，较前一日变动-51元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-111；3128B棉全国均价15163元/吨， 较前一日变动-49元/吨，现货基差CF09+1358，较前一日变动-109。 近期市场资讯，印度棉花协会(CAI)最新报告显示，截至2025年5月31日，CAI评估印度棉花2024/25年度棉花平衡 表，与上月评估相比产量上调17万吨，进口上调10万吨，需求下调3万吨，出口上调3万吨，期末库存上调27万吨。 与上一年度比较，期初库存增加2万吨，产量减45万吨，进口增加40万吨，国内需求调减14万吨，出口减少19万吨， 期末库存增加31万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应 ...