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散户并非行情推动者!新旧资金正在接力,关注盈利改善兑现
天天基金网· 2025-08-25 07:46
牛市来了还没上车?上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包,优选基金10元起投!限量发放!先到先得! 中信证券:并不是散户市 从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户。事实上本轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩。既然都是 聪明的钱入场占主导地位,就不能执迷于类比过往行情走势。目前全市场结算资金占流通市值的比例尚在合理区间,赚钱效应仍在持续积累。随着2020年至 2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域,市场会有个新旧资金接力的过程。未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索,而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。 配置上,依然建议聚焦在有真实利润兑现或者强产业趋势的行业,如资源、创新药、游戏和军工;从短期的利润兑现度的角度来看,开始关注化工,逐步增 配一些"反内卷+出海"品种;9月消费电子板块也值得关注。 华泰证券:新高后市场如何演绎? 上周市场创新高,充裕流动性仍是行情的主要基底。近期居民存款搬家的叙事构成了国内流动性改善的积极信号,后续或仍有空间。短期来看,判断市场顶 部的意义和胜率都不算高,配置上应保持仓位、顺势择线、适度内部高低切换。节奏上后续即便出现调整,幅度也不会 ...
[6月20日]指数估值数据(港股反弹,港股指数估值如何;小微盘股波动变大;抽奖福利)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-20 13:08
Market Overview - The overall market experienced slight declines, closing around 5-5.1 stars [1] - The CSI 300 index saw a minor increase, while small and mid-cap stocks declined [2] - Value styles, including dividend stocks, showed strength with slight increases [3] - The liquor and consumer indices saw significant gains [4] - Hong Kong stocks performed well, with notable increases [5] - Hong Kong technology and dividend stocks also rose [6] - After recent gains, Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks returned to normal valuations [7] - Hong Kong technology stocks experienced a pullback, approaching undervaluation [8] Small and Micro-Cap Stocks - Small and micro-cap stocks in A-shares often exhibit significant volatility [11] - In the past two years, three notable waves of volatility were observed: 1. In the second half of 2023, small micro-cap stocks surged, presenting high short-term risks [12] 2. By early 2024, options linked to these stocks faced liquidation, leading to a drop of over 30% in one month [13] 3. In late 2024, small micro-cap stocks rose by 20% while larger indices slightly declined, followed by a 20% drop in December [14] - The volatility of small micro-cap stocks has become more pronounced recently [16] Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for large and mid-cap stocks is increasingly characterized by index fund investments [18] - The CSI 300 has seen significant institutional investment, leading to reduced volatility [20] - The volatility of the CSI 300 is expected to continue decreasing, with a current annual volatility 60-70% higher than that of Western markets [23] - Small micro-cap stocks are primarily traded by retail investors, with increasing quantitative trading participation [25] - The lack of index funds for small micro-cap stocks contributes to their volatility [26] Implications for Investors - Public funds predominantly focus on large and mid-cap stocks, which are becoming more stable and mature [34] - Small micro-cap stocks are less represented in public funds, and investors should be cautious with their allocation [37] - The valuation of small micro-cap indices has returned to levels around 35-40% of the last ten years [39]