GUIDE 摘要 中信建投：后续市场走势或将延续中期慢牛格局； 市场资金情绪持续升温，虽然斜率并不陡峭，可能仍然能够提供一定的行情演绎空间，但部分指标已经 升至较高位置，若慢牛行情演化为加速赶顶，不可忽视可能的阶段性脆弱风险。总体来看，内外部基本 面和流动性条件无显著利空， 市场情绪和资金面尚未达到显著全面过热，目前还达不到看空的条件， 后续市场走势或将延续中期慢牛格局。 当前市场情况下，赛道轮动仍是最显著的行情特征，综合胜率 和赔率来看，在景气赛道领域寻找低位新方向，或是短期更有性价比的选择。行业重点关注：通信、计 算机、半导体、传媒、新消费、新能源、非银、有色等。 中信证券 此轮行情并不是散户市 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户；事实上本轮行情从起步到 加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩 ；既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不能执迷于类比过 往行情走势。随着2020—2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资金接力的过程； 未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上，建议继续聚焦资源、 创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步 ...

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：并不是散户市 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户。事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩。既然都是 聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不能执迷于类比过往行情走势。目前全市场结算资金占流通市值的比例尚在合理区间，赚钱效应仍在持续积累。随着2020年至 2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资金接力的过程。未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。 配置上，依然建议聚焦在有真实利润兑现或者强产业趋势的行业，如资源、创新药、游戏和军工；从短期的利润兑现度的角度来看，开始关注化工，逐步增 配一些"反内卷+出海"品种；9月消费电子板块也值得关注。 华泰证券：新高后市场如何演绎？ 上周市场创新高，充裕流动性仍是行情的主要基底。近期居民存款搬家的叙事构成了国内流动性改善的积极信号，后续或仍有空间。短期来看，判断市场顶 部的意义和胜率都不算高，配置上应保持仓位、顺势择线、适度内部高低切换。节奏上后续即便出现调整，幅度也不会 ...

近日，沪指站稳3800点，成交额连续9个交易日突破2万亿元，资金风险偏好持续回升。机构普遍认为， 驱动指数上行的核心是增量流动性，本轮行情从起步到加速，其核心线索均围绕产业趋势和公司业绩。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，新旧资金接力，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循 环。 国际方面，近期，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上释放鸽派信号，表示就业下行风险上升，可能需 要调整政策立场，市场对9月降息预期进一步强化。 A500ETF龙头(563800)，均衡配置各行业优质龙头企业，一键布局A股核心资产；场外联接(A类： 022424；C类：022425；Y类：022971)。 股市慢牛来了，你准备好了吗？备好账户跟进牛市，更有五大福利领取>> 场内ETF方面，截至2025年8月25日 14:05，中证A500指数强势上涨1.30%，A500ETF龙头(563800)上涨 1.19%， 冲击4连涨；年初至今第14次刷新历史新高！成分股罗博特科20cm涨停，中际旭创上涨 11.99%，乐普医疗上涨11.67%，贝达药业、大全能源等个股跟涨。前十大权重股合计占比19.83%，其 中紫金矿业上涨6.87%，长江 ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-8-25 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 持续上攻，屡创新高 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种继续大幅上行，其中沪深 300 与中证 500涨幅相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差部分仍为期货贴水模式， 贴水深度有所改善。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 13.39， IF 收于 16，IC 收于-12.45，IM 收于-14.34。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股延续了此前的普涨态势。在日均成交额逼近 2.6 万亿 关口的环境下，沪指突破 2021 年牛市高点并站上 3800 点，向上进 攻态势明显。截至 8 月 22 日，板块已经出现了轮动，但是还是在 近期强势的板块，涨幅较大的板块已经滞涨，低位切换的并不明显。 整体看，强势运行是市场给出的态度，但放大周期看风险还是存在 的。 综合分析： 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推 动者并非散户；事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕 产业趋势和业绩。随着之前发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市 场会有个新旧资金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是 ...

产业趋势引领板块轮动格局 弱美元成为A股开启行情的重要触发因素。6月末美元跌破前低后，海外流动性边际转向宽松。人民币 资产吸引力显著提升。中国企业下游需求对全球制造业景气更为敏感。这种景气预期上修驱动A股8月 加速上行。 A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循环。市场依然围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交 易。主线方向呈现"强者恒强"特征。美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会释放宽松信号。美元指数长 期走弱周期下，全球资本流向重塑为A股提供进一步支撑。 沪指时隔十年再次站上3800点关口，A股市场展现出强劲上涨动能。成交额连续8个交易日突破2万亿 元，创下历史新纪录。市场热度持续攀升，投资者风险偏好明显回升。这轮行情的核心驱动力来自增量 流动性的持续注入。制造业景气度回升为资金流向股市提供重要背景。企业盈利迎来改善拐点，产业趋 势和公司业绩成为行情主要线索。 高净值资金成为市场主要推动力 本轮行情中，高净值人群及企业客户参与度显著提升。传统行业积累财富的高净值个人投资者将目光投 向权益市场。他们寻求布局战略性新兴产业的投资机会。面向高净值客户的私募产品热度远超公募产 品。7月私募备案规模达793亿元，环 ...

对于近期A股的表现，中信证券认为，本轮行情持续至今，主要的发起者和推动者中高净值人群及企业 客户的参与度明显更高。上海证券交易所数据显示，2025年7月A股新开户196.36万户，同比增长71%， 环比增长19%，但依然显著低于去年10月和2015年的极端情况。新增开户数或难以准确刻画本轮行情中 的散户入市行为。 上证指数日K线图 张大伟 制图 ■机构展望 沪指站上3800点 A股有望形成良性资金循环 机构认为，市场将从更关注短期动量，向中期视角、投资性价比回归。在基本面积极因素进一步累积、 主线板块线索更加清晰后，本轮行情才能走得"更远、更高、更好" ◎记者 汪友若 上周，A股市场持续走强，沪指站上3800点，成交额连续8个交易日突破2万亿元，资金风险偏好持续回 升。 机构普遍认为，驱动指数上行的核心是增量流动性。同时投资者应该意识到，制造业景气度回升、企业 盈利迎来改善拐点是驱动资金流向股市的重要背景。本轮行情从起步到加速，其核心线索均围绕产业趋 势和公司业绩。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，新旧资金接力，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循 环。 高净值人群或是主要增量 中信证券渠道调研显示， ...

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rise, with major indices reaching new highs, particularly in technology growth sectors like communications and electronics [1] - Industry leaders are achieving historical stock price highs, indicating strong market performance [1] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the realization of profit improvement expectations will be the main driver for the next phase of market trends [1][4] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with genuine profit realization or strong industrial trends, such as resource stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries [4][5] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing the classification and evaluation system for securities companies to promote high-quality development and support differentiated growth for small and medium-sized institutions [2] Investment Recommendations - Citic Securities suggests focusing on sectors with real profit realization and strong industrial trends, highlighting opportunities in resource stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military sectors [4] - Guojin Securities recommends three main investment lines: industrial metals (copper, aluminum, steel), insurance and brokerage, and food and beverage, as well as power equipment [5] - Industrial metals are expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by historical data showing a reverse correlation with the US dollar index [8] Sector Insights - The robotics sector is poised for a new round of growth driven by policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and successful implementation in various scenarios [8] - Many industries are currently trading at price-to-earnings ratios below the 50th percentile of the past 15 years, indicating potential investment opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals and corporate clients rather than retail investors, with a significant focus on industrial trends and performance [1][2] - High-net-worth individuals are shifting their investments from traditional industries to emerging sectors and leading companies within traditional industries [2][3] - The enthusiasm for private equity products targeting high-net-worth clients is significantly higher than that for public funds, with private equity products maintaining high levels of interest [3][4] Group 2 - The recent market rally is characterized by a structural difference in incremental liquidity, primarily coming from sophisticated investors rather than retail investors, contrasting with previous market cycles [5][6] - The current market's cash-to-market capitalization ratio is approximately 8.07%, which is within a reasonable range compared to previous market uptrends [7][8] - The weighted net value of actively managed public funds issued between 2020 and 2021 has recently approached the breakeven point, indicating potential for concentrated redemptions [8][9] Group 3 - Key sectors to focus on include resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries, with an increasing interest in chemicals and consumer electronics [9][10] - The upcoming September consumer electronics product launches are expected to create significant thematic investment opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally is primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals and corporate clients rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and performance rather than mere liquidity [1][4][6] Fund Participation - High-net-worth individuals and corporate clients show significantly higher enthusiasm for market participation, with new A-share accounts increasing by 71% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] - Private equity products are gaining more traction compared to public offerings, with private equity registration scale rising by 164% month-on-month in July [2] Market Trends - The rally is characterized by sectors with strong industrial trends and performance, such as gaming and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen substantial price increases since April [3] - The current market liquidity structure differs from previous years, with "smart money" entering through specialized institutions rather than retail-driven public fund expansions [4][5] Market Metrics - The proportion of settlement funds to circulating market value is approximately 8.07%, which is within a reasonable range compared to previous market upswings [6] - The weighted net value of actively managed public funds from 2020-2021 is approaching the breakeven point, indicating potential for concentrated redemptions [7] Future Investment Focus - Future market continuation will require new allocation cues rather than relying solely on liquidity; sectors such as resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industry are recommended for focus [8][9] - The upcoming September consumer electronics events may present significant thematic opportunities, alongside a focus on "anti-involution + overseas expansion" strategies in resource and chemical sectors [9]

格隆汇8月24日｜中信证券发布策略研报称，从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者 和推动者并非散户；事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩；既然都是聪明 的钱入场占主导地位，就不能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020—2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平 衡区域，市场会有个新旧资金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱 多"和流动性。配置上，建议继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内 卷+出海"品种，9月消费电子板块也值得关注。 ...