黄付生认为，随着"两重""两新"政策的持续发力，以及企业盈利从"估值修复"向"业绩兑现"的实质性转 变，市场有望延续震荡上行的良性态势。人民币升值、"十五五"政策可期和中国科技发展进入收获期这 三大利好因素将持续发力，看好科技牛市延续与消费板块盈利和估值的底部双击。 人民财讯1月6日电，2026年首个交易日，A股上演"开门红"，上证指数涨1.38%，收出罕见的12连阳， 重回4000点上方；上证50、深证成指亦大涨，创出新高。两市全日成交2.57万亿元，较前一交易日增超 5000亿元。脑机接口、保险、医疗、科技等板块涨幅居前。"今日市场的全面爆发，并非偶然的脉冲式 行情，而是基本面改善、政策红利释放与流动性修复三者共振的必然结果。"中邮证券副总裁、首席经 济学家黄付生对证券时报记者表示，展望后市，A股"慢牛"行情的基础依然扎实。 ...

目前看，双创与科技板块预期盈利高于当前实现水平，建议关注2026年的业绩兑现情况;与近似PB的行 业相比，国防军工盈利水平仍有提升空间;食品饮料与家电行业盈利性的差距逐渐缩小，但长期看或存 在估值趋近的过程;大盘指数内新旧经济增长动能切换的态势显著，总体盈利和价格波动的稳定是其配 置价值的基础。2026年1月是2025年年报业绩预告观测时间窗口，建议关注相关行业的业绩兑现情况。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2025年以来A股市场走出持续3年的"哑铃"格局，科创、 创业板为代表的硬科技板块成长性回升是其基本面基础。经过6至10月的系统性估值修复后，10月以来 行业间走势分化加剧，而截止Q3的业绩持续增长是大部分行业10月后表现韧性的基础。 1)2025年8月后市场估值趋于分化，10月短期震荡后再创新高。10月后，由于上涨节奏的切换，系数 Beta短期缓解后再创新高，目前已经超过2023年初的分化水平。 2)10月后不同行业价格走势的结构出现分化，但成长性是其行情韧性的基础。部分行业在10月后的上涨 节奏不受影响，或短期受到影响后重新回归上行趋势，大部分此类行业在2025年 ...

中信证券研报指出，2025年以来A股市场走出持续3年的"哑铃"格局，科创、创业板为代表的硬科技板 块成长性回升是其基本面基础。经过6至10月的系统性估值修复后，10月以来行业间走势分化加剧，而 截止Q3的业绩持续增长是大部分行业10月后表现韧性的基础。目前看，双创与科技板块预期盈利高于 当前实现水平，建议关注2026年的业绩兑现情况；与近似PB的行业相比，国防军工盈利水平仍有提升 空间；食品饮料与家电行业盈利性的差距逐渐缩小，但长期看或存在估值趋近的过程；大盘指数内新旧 经济增长动能切换的态势显著，总体盈利和价格波动的稳定是其配置价值的基础。2026年1月是2025年 年报业绩预告观测时间窗口，建议关注相关行业的业绩兑现情况。 ...

Core Insights - The macro environment is stabilizing, and structural market trends are expanding, leading to strong performance from leading fund managers' products [1] - The AI technology and recovery sectors are highlighted as key investment areas, with many funds reporting significant positive returns and growth in scale [1][4] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund managed by Zhao Yi, Quan Guo Xu Yuan, achieved a year-to-date return of 35.59%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index and the average of equity mixed funds [1] - As of the end of Q3, the fund's management scale reached 19.069 billion yuan, an increase of 6.088 billion yuan from the end of Q2 [1] - The top ten holdings of the fund all recorded positive returns in Q3, with several stocks, including Ningde Times and Enjie Co., seeing gains exceeding 50% [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - Zhao Yi anticipates a stable upward trend in China's equity market, with improved liquidity expected from a potential turning point in US dollar liquidity [3] - The team expresses confidence in China's high-quality economic development, which is expected to maintain a long-term positive trajectory [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - Multiple technology-themed funds reported impressive returns and scale growth in Q3, with notable performances from funds like Tongtai Digital Economy and Beixin Ruifeng Advantage Industry [4][5] - The focus on AI hardware and domestic chip production is expected to be a primary investment theme over the next 3-5 years, with a belief that "the future of technology lies in China" [5] - Fund managers are optimistic about the ongoing commercialization of domestic computing chips and AI edge chips, anticipating significant market opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of actively managed equity fund reports for Q3 indicates strong performance driven by AI technology and recovery sectors, with several funds achieving significant positive returns and scale expansion [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund managed by Zhao Yi, Quan Guo Xu Yuan, reported a year-to-date return of 35.59%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index and the average of equity mixed funds [2]. - As of the end of Q3, the fund's management scale reached 19.069 billion yuan, an increase of 6.088 billion yuan from the end of Q2 [2]. - The top ten holdings of the fund all achieved positive returns, with notable increases in stocks like Ningde Times and Enjie [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The fund's portfolio is concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy, electronics, machinery, and military industry, with a dual focus on AI technology and recovery opportunities [3]. - Fund managers believe that the AI industry chain is moving towards a "performance realization" phase, with technology growth expected to continue driving structural market trends [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Zhao Yi expressed confidence in the long-term positive trend of China's equity market, anticipating a turning point in dollar liquidity that could enhance market liquidity [3]. - Fund managers across various technology-themed funds expect that the investment opportunities in the technology industry will shift from "theme-driven" to "performance realization" in the coming years [5][6].

Macro Economy - In the third quarter, China's GDP reached 101.5 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The real estate market showed a decline in housing prices across 70 major cities, with a narrowing year-on-year drop [3] - Shanghai's land auction resulted in a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with three plots sold at a premium, although the premium rates were below 20% [3] - National railway passenger volume reached 3.54 billion, marking a 6% increase year-on-year, setting a new historical high for the same period [3] Investment News - The stock trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, boosting social confidence [5] - On October 20, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63% and total trading volume reaching 1.74 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8 [5][6] - A significant increase in M&A activities was noted, with 87 private listed companies initiating plans totaling 244.379 billion yuan, a 93.33% increase in the number of companies and a 74.63% increase in transaction value compared to the previous year [6] Company Movements - CATL reported a net profit of 18.5 billion yuan in Q3, a 41% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 104.19 billion yuan, up 12.9% [7] - Dazhu CNC's Q3 revenue reached 1.521 billion yuan, a 95.19% increase, with net profit soaring by 281.94% to 228 million yuan, driven by strong demand for AI server high multi-layer boards [7] - Keda Xunfei achieved Q3 revenue of 6.078 billion yuan, a 10.02% increase, with net profit rising by 202.40% to 172 million yuan, maintaining a leading position in domestic AI capabilities [7] - Industrial Fulian plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.551 billion yuan, proposing a payout of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices of gold products by 12%-18% due to rising gold prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is optimistic about the dual drivers of "performance realization" and "technological innovation" in the A-share market, viewing the current market adjustments as opportunities for long-term investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A-share market has experienced volatility, but foreign institutions believe this short-term adjustment helps release inherent risks accumulated during previous rallies, maintaining high allocation value [2]. - The market is expected to shift towards a structurally upward trend driven by profit growth, supported by policy measures, a moderately loose policy environment, and a revaluation of market estimates [2][4]. - External factors have triggered a market correction, which may lead to increased attention on equity markets post-adjustment [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In September, foreign net inflows into the Chinese stock market rebounded to $4.6 billion (approximately 33.3 billion RMB), marking the highest monthly record since November 2024 [5]. - The interest of overseas investors in China's technology sector is growing due to continuous breakthroughs, with significant inflows expected to continue [5][6]. - Foreign capital is increasingly favoring long-term growth potential in technology manufacturing assets, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, driven by global AI demand [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - As A-share companies begin to disclose Q3 reports, foreign investment trends are becoming clearer, with notable foreign shareholders emerging in various companies [7]. - Key sectors for investment include non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, technology, and dividend assets, with a focus on precious metals and rare earths due to the global interest rate decline [7]. - The technology sector, despite previous gains, still presents upside potential compared to overseas leaders, with specific attention on sectors like AI, cloud services, and energy storage [8].

Industry Overview - The global PCB industry value is expected to decline by 14.9% in 2023 but is projected to grow by 5.9% to $73.6 billion in 2024 [1][2] - The PCB market is anticipated to grow by 6.8% in 2023, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics and increased demand for high-value PCB products, particularly from AI servers [1][2] - From 2024 to 2029, the global market for PCBs used in servers/storage is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.0%, while the overall PCB market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.6% [1][2] Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the PCB equipment sector include: - 大族数控 (Dazhu CNC) for drilling equipment - 芯碁微装 (Xinqi Micro) for exposure equipment - 鼎泰高科 (Ding Tai High-Tech) for drilling needles - 中钨高新 (Zhongtu High-Tech) for drilling needles - 凯格精机 (Kaige Precision) for solder paste printing - 东威科技 (Dongwei Technology) for electroplating [2] Specific Company Insights - 绿田机械 (Lvtian Machinery) is focused on general power machinery products and has begun mass production of energy storage products. The company is expected to see net profit growth rates of 24.1%, 55.9%, 56.3%, and 70.4% from Q3 2024 to Q2 2025 [2] - 宏华数科 (Honghua Digital Science) continues to experience rapid growth in digital printing equipment, with projected revenue of 1.04 billion yuan and net profit of 250 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 27.2% and 25.2% respectively [3] - 新锐股份 (Xinxin Co.) has reported revenue growth of 28.97% and net profit growth of 2.88% in the first half of the year, with expectations for improved profitability as business growth stabilizes [5]

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and earnings [2] - The market's settlement funds relative to circulating market value remain in a reasonable range, indicating ongoing profit accumulation [2] - Future market performance will depend on new allocation cues rather than just liquidity and abundant funds [2] Group 2 - Recent market highs are supported by ample liquidity, with positive signals from the movement of household deposits indicating improved domestic liquidity [3] - The consensus on an upward market trend is strengthening, with key factors such as domestic fundamentals and liquidity showing positive changes [3] - Strategic allocations should focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and large financial institutions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance suggests a likely interest rate cut in September, which may improve dollar liquidity and benefit Hong Kong stocks [4] - The current market phase is characterized by a funding-driven environment, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and domestic AI [4] - Analysts have revised upward profit forecasts for various sectors, indicating potential strong performance in those areas [4] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, with a focus on technology growth leading the way [9] - There are opportunities in low-valuation cyclical sectors that align with positive economic expectations [9] - Key areas for investment include Hong Kong internet, semiconductor equipment, software applications, and new consumption [9] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook, with liquidity indicators still favorable for equities [6] - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like semiconductor materials and biomedicine, while avoiding lagging industries [6] - The market sentiment is improving but has not reached overly optimistic levels seen in previous bull markets [6] Group 6 - The current bull market is supported by various sources of incremental capital, including long-term funds and active private equity [12] - The "migration of deposits" trend may become a significant source of new capital for the market [12] - Focus areas for investment should include new technologies and growth sectors, such as domestic AI applications and robotics [12]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with a record net inflow of 35.876 billion HKD from southbound funds on August 15, marking the highest single-day net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism in November 2014 [1] - The top five net bought stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on that day were all core components of the technology sector, indicating strong demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong tech stocks [1] - The sector is currently benefiting from a dual opportunity of "valuation recovery + performance realization," with leading companies establishing strong competitive moats due to technological barriers and ecosystem advantages [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Theme Index is particularly valuable for investment, focusing on TMT and internet sectors, and includes leaders from the Hong Kong AI industry chain, effectively targeting core technology directions [2] - The top ten constituent stocks account for over 75% of the index weight, providing strong representation and allowing the index to efficiently capture industry dividends while enhancing defensive attributes during market volatility [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is in a favorable cycle characterized by "increased policy support + accelerated industry breakthroughs + continuous capital inflow + dual recovery of valuation and earnings," with the upcoming performance realization window making the investment value clearer [2]