Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. A-share valuation has surpassed the 60th percentile, historically indicating a high probability of continued upward movement, driven by fundamental improvements, policy support, and liquidity easing [1][3][4] 2. July economic data was slightly below expectations, but exports showed an unexpected rebound, indicating a recovery trend in the economy and profits, with industrial profits likely entering a recovery cycle [1][6][14] 3. The A-share earnings cycle bottomed in August 2023, with mid-year performance growth improving compared to the first quarter, suggesting a better fundamental situation than indicated by economic data [1][14] 4. Key drivers for the A-share market's upward trend include improvements in fundamentals, positive policy impacts, and external events, alongside liquidity easing [4][19] 5. Historical data shows that when the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeds the 60th percentile, it typically continues to rise, with only one significant downturn linked to external shocks [3][8] 6. The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to significant inflows of funds, with trading volumes exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan and new fund issuance rebounding to approximately 50 billion yuan [18][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The impact of the delay in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to maintain some resilience, although growth rates may slow down in the coming months [9] 2. Domestic demand factors, including consumption, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure investment, are projected to maintain high growth levels despite a slight decline in July [10] 3. Real estate investment remains weak, which could suppress overall economic performance, but the economy is still on a recovery path [11] 4. Industrial profits are closely linked to the Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential for profit recovery if PPI growth improves [12][13] 5. The current liquidity environment is favorable, with expectations of continued fund inflows into the A-share market, supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [16][17] 6. Recommended sectors for investment include technology (robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI applications), and sectors showing potential for fundamental improvement or catch-up, such as batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][22]

Group 1 - The cash flow ETF (159399) has seen a net inflow of over 120 million yuan in the past five days, indicating strong demand for cash flow assets [1] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience in the first half of the year, with June exports rebounding more than expected, leading to improved market sentiment [1] - Citigroup upgraded the rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations despite higher trade risks, and a positive trend in earnings revisions [1] Group 2 - The FTSE cash flow index has outperformed the CSI dividend index and the CSI 300 index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The investment theme for the year is expected to focus on "large and medium-sized enterprises + central state-owned enterprises + abundant cash flow" [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai FTSE China A-share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has successfully crossed the 3500-point mark, driven by the banking sector and other financial institutions, with analysts suggesting that this breakthrough is supported by policy backing, financial strength, and stabilizing economic data [5][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, supported by gains in the banking, real estate, coal, and brokerage sectors [3][5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.49 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [3]. - Analysts predict that the Shanghai Composite Index may challenge the resistance level of 3674 points in the future [18]. Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has reached new historical highs, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rising by 2.93% [7]. - Over 10 listed banks have announced plans for dividend distributions for the 2024 fiscal year, with total annual dividends expected to reach 632 billion yuan, marking a record high [9]. - Current valuations of A-shares compared to H-shares remain attractive under the PB-ROE framework, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the banking sector [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The recent breakthrough at 3500 points is characterized by lower trading volume but healthier market conditions compared to previous instances [18][25]. - Key variables to monitor for the sustainability of the current market trend include maintaining trading volumes above 1 trillion yuan, the implementation of policies, and external risks such as U.S. Federal Reserve meetings and foreign capital flows [30][31]. - Suggested investment directions include focusing on policy beneficiaries, technology sectors like robotics, and defensive sectors such as banking and utilities, which provide high dividend yields [32].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a stable consolidation pattern, with approximately 3,600 stocks declining and a slight decrease in trading volume in the afternoon, indicating no continuation of a significant rally [1] - A-shares have historically reached a total market capitalization of over 100 trillion, with the index returning above 3,400 points, marking a significant milestone [3] Investment Sentiment - The current market consolidation is seen as positive, allowing those wishing to exit to do so while enabling new capital to enter, which is essential for further upward movement [1] - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index having increased by 30% over the past 30 years, and the CSI 300 Index showing an annualized return of 10% [3] Sector Performance - The market is expected to see continued upward movement, with major sectors such as finance, consumption, and real estate likely to drive the index higher, while technology stocks are not expected to play a significant role [8][10] - Financial sectors, including banks and insurance, are anticipated to be the main drivers of the market this year, with a rotation expected among securities, liquor, real estate, and insurance [8] Investment Strategy - Given the low probability of outperforming the market index, it is suggested that investors consider holding index funds rather than attempting to beat the market through individual stock selection [5] - The focus should be on large financial and consumer sectors, as technology companies do not hold significant market capitalization within A-shares [10]

Market Overview - The overall market experienced slight declines, closing around 5-5.1 stars [1] - The CSI 300 index saw a minor increase, while small and mid-cap stocks declined [2] - Value styles, including dividend stocks, showed strength with slight increases [3] - The liquor and consumer indices saw significant gains [4] - Hong Kong stocks performed well, with notable increases [5] - Hong Kong technology and dividend stocks also rose [6] - After recent gains, Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks returned to normal valuations [7] - Hong Kong technology stocks experienced a pullback, approaching undervaluation [8] Small and Micro-Cap Stocks - Small and micro-cap stocks in A-shares often exhibit significant volatility [11] - In the past two years, three notable waves of volatility were observed: 1. In the second half of 2023, small micro-cap stocks surged, presenting high short-term risks [12] 2. By early 2024, options linked to these stocks faced liquidation, leading to a drop of over 30% in one month [13] 3. In late 2024, small micro-cap stocks rose by 20% while larger indices slightly declined, followed by a 20% drop in December [14] - The volatility of small micro-cap stocks has become more pronounced recently [16] Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for large and mid-cap stocks is increasingly characterized by index fund investments [18] - The CSI 300 has seen significant institutional investment, leading to reduced volatility [20] - The volatility of the CSI 300 is expected to continue decreasing, with a current annual volatility 60-70% higher than that of Western markets [23] - Small micro-cap stocks are primarily traded by retail investors, with increasing quantitative trading participation [25] - The lack of index funds for small micro-cap stocks contributes to their volatility [26] Implications for Investors - Public funds predominantly focus on large and mid-cap stocks, which are becoming more stable and mature [34] - Small micro-cap stocks are less represented in public funds, and investors should be cautious with their allocation [37] - The valuation of small micro-cap indices has returned to levels around 35-40% of the last ten years [39]

Group 1 - The market experienced a low opening on Monday, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3384 points [1] - Cultural media, gaming, software development, and internet services sectors performed well, while precious metals, jewelry, aviation, and aerospace sectors showed weaker performance [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, with further overseas liquidity easing still pending [1] Group 2 - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the market saw significant adjustments in the previous trading day, but fear sentiment has decreased after the weekend, leading to a rebound [2] - The trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating that market sentiment still needs improvement, and the A-share market is likely to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term [2] - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase since the "924" rally, with a wide fluctuation trend, and future policy announcements in late July and September are critical for breaking out of this range [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

Group 1 - The market sentiment has been affected by the India-Pakistan conflict, overshadowing positive news such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, leading to uncertainty in capital flows [1] - The recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is seen as a positive development, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk appetite among large investors [2] - The industrial manufacturing level in the region has significantly improved, positioning the industry in a strong competitive stance globally [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound, with banks breaking past previous highs and other sectors having 15-30% room for growth [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation and a gradual upward trend, with individual stocks showing localized performance [3] - The current market sentiment is pessimistic, which may prevent significant pullbacks, as the index has not formed profit-taking pressure [5]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a slow bull trend, with a preference for large technology core sectors, and a shift from extreme structure to balanced structure in asset allocation [2] - The upcoming earnings announcement period should consider fundamentals while avoiding underperforming companies, as most stocks are expected to return to their intrinsic value [2] - A-shares are expected to recover positively by 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as credit inflation and a stable debt environment [4] Group 2 - Conditions for a comprehensive A-share market rally are becoming more favorable, with expectations of foreign capital inflow and improved supply-demand dynamics in the market [6] - The potential for a significant market rally is linked to China's innovation, AI application advantages, and strategic opportunities [6] - Current dividend strategies show significant bottom characteristics, with indicators suggesting a potential recovery in performance [8] Group 3 - The dividend strategy has exhibited rare "negative return - high volatility" characteristics over the past three months, indicating a deviation from long-term averages and potential for recovery [8] - The relative market excess of dividends is nearing -10%, suggesting a high probability of excess return recovery based on historical patterns [8] - The trading volume of dividend ETFs is in a low state, indicating a potential bottom phase for the strategy, with a significant safety margin for allocation [8]