摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数继续冲高，沪指站稳3500点，四大行再创历史新高。为什么是银行？还能上车吗？ 2、 机构： 沪指后市将挑战3674点阻力位。这次的3500点有什么不一样？后市如何布局？ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1383 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数午后冲高，沪指成功站上了3500点！ （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/10，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.49万亿元，盘面上，银行、地产、煤炭、券商等板块领涨。 分析人士指出， 短期看，沪指突破本身直接推动了风险偏好提升和赚钱效应扩散。从中期看，2025年四季度指数可能有效突破，三季度维持震荡市的 判断。 四大行再创新高，A股站上3500点！ 今天，在券商、银行、地产等板块的带动下，A股终于站上了3500点，四大行再创历史新高。 分析人士认为， 本次3500点突破是政策托底 + 金融权重发力 + 经济数据企稳的综合结果，但与历史相比结构性分化更显著、量能支撑偏弱。 1、银行板块再创新高。 今天，银行板块再度上 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a stable consolidation pattern, with approximately 3,600 stocks declining and a slight decrease in trading volume in the afternoon, indicating no continuation of a significant rally [1] - A-shares have historically reached a total market capitalization of over 100 trillion, with the index returning above 3,400 points, marking a significant milestone [3] Investment Sentiment - The current market consolidation is seen as positive, allowing those wishing to exit to do so while enabling new capital to enter, which is essential for further upward movement [1] - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index having increased by 30% over the past 30 years, and the CSI 300 Index showing an annualized return of 10% [3] Sector Performance - The market is expected to see continued upward movement, with major sectors such as finance, consumption, and real estate likely to drive the index higher, while technology stocks are not expected to play a significant role [8][10] - Financial sectors, including banks and insurance, are anticipated to be the main drivers of the market this year, with a rotation expected among securities, liquor, real estate, and insurance [8] Investment Strategy - Given the low probability of outperforming the market index, it is suggested that investors consider holding index funds rather than attempting to beat the market through individual stock selection [5] - The focus should be on large financial and consumer sectors, as technology companies do not hold significant market capitalization within A-shares [10]

港股经过前几周的上涨，港股医药股回到了正常估值。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘略微下跌，整体波动不大，截止到收盘，在5-5.1星上下。 沪深300略微上涨，中小盘股下跌。 红利等价值风格比较强势，略微上涨。 白酒、消费指数上涨较多。 港股今天表现比较好，上涨较多。 港股科技、港股红利也都上涨。 港股科技这两天回调，回到低估，距离正常估值也比较接近。 螺丝钉也汇总了港股指数的估值，供参考。 | 风险:5 目女 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/01 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | 股息率% | ROE% | 近五年市盈率 分位数% | 近十年市盈率 分位数% | 近五年市净率 分位数% | 近十年市净率 分位数% | 场内代码 | 场外代码 | | HSCEI.HI | H股指数 | 13.10 | 1.26 | 3.13 | 9.62 | 65.52 | 82.76 | 75.10 | 87 ...

六总 总量双周报: 扰动增加,趋势依旧 2025年6月19日 总量双周报 专题报告 | 分析师 | 林阳 电话:021-65465572 邮箱: linyang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480524080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 康明怡 电话: 021-25102911 邮箱: kangmy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519090001 | | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话: 021-25102905 邮箱: linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519070002 | | 分析师 | 陈刚 电话: 010-66554028 邮箱: chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480521080001 | | 分析师 | 刘嘉玮 电话: 010-66554043 邮箱: liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519050001 | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话: 010-66554013 邮箱: tianxy@dxzq.net.cn ...

东兴证券认为，在目前量能条件下，市场出现风格切换的可能性较小，中小盘和成长风格有望延续，短 期在中小盘拥挤度较高的情况下有可能出现小周期调整，但大周期调整可能性较低，A股慢牛走势开 启，大市值公司价值有望跟随中小市值公司步入上升趋势，从市场风格来看，中小市值弹性仍然占优。 中原证券认为，周一早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3384点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡， 尾盘再度上行，盘中文化传媒、游戏、软件开发以及互联网服务等行业表现较好；贵金属、珠宝首饰、 航空机场以及航天航空等行业表现较弱。市场预计美联储最早或于9月份进行下一次降息操作，海外流 动性进一步宽松尚需等待。上周A股在3400点关口遭遇地缘事件与技术层面的双重影响，市场情绪陷入 谨慎。然而政策托底与流动性宽松为中期修复提供支撑，结构性机会仍存。本周需重点关注中东局势演 变、陆家嘴论坛政策信号及量能变化。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金 面以及外盘的变化情况。 财信证券认为，因受到中东地缘冲突升级影响，大盘在前一个交易日调整较多，但经历周末后，市场恐 慌情绪有所降低，叠加5月国内经济数据尚可，大盘迎来反弹；但当日成交额缩量较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

据央视新闻消息，当地时间5月10日，巴基斯坦外长达尔表示，巴基斯坦和印度已同意立即停火。 停火是预期里面事情，只是双方试探，而且是各怀鬼胎。坦白说，这场冲突只是检验了一次军备。对我们反而是利好，因为间接带货了。 各行各业，我们都已经悄悄崛起，到了全球第一梯队。这些年埋头苦干，努力的赶超别人。目前，我们的工业制造水平已经空前的强大了。 受到消息影响，大资金的风险偏好应该要变了，未来几个月大概率会风平浪静，关税的事情肯定也会有缓和。 上证指数盘整了7个月，大概率不是为了倒车接人，反而是洗盘。大多数人的仓位越来越轻，大家对未来已经迷茫了。 A股要继续反弹了 个人角度，市场会继续反弹，这件事情不以谁的意志为转移。银行已经突破10月8日高点了，剩余的几个权重行业还有15~30%的补涨空间。 之后，行业轮动上涨，上证指数震荡向上，慢牛走势。个股会不断有局部行情，市场天天都会有热点，不会玩的人，怎么都是亏损累累。 炒股也是挣大利润的人，都对手盘游戏，不可能是市场把本金吃掉了。无论什么策略，都是战胜同样策略的人。 白酒、证券依旧不需要加速，等待地产的利好。4月份的消费数据也披露了，很不理想！接下来只有拉升股市，让资金流动起来 ...

GUIDE 摘要 市场处于慢牛走势，首选大科技核心板块 东兴证券表示， 市场仍然处于慢牛走势，我们仍然首选大科技核心板块，从风格上，更倾向于从极端 结构向均衡结构配置，消费和顺周期品种可以逐步增配 ，在即将到来的业绩公布期，兼顾基本面，回 避绩差公司，虽然宏大叙事想象空间巨大，但最终的产业格局尚未确定，未来注定大部分个股会回归其 内在价值。 广发证 券 2025年A股有望回升向好 广发证券金工组资深分析师陈原文表示， 从信用通胀的宏观角度看，2025年A股总体有望回升向好。 本轮杠杆率上行主要为债务稳定，产出走弱，在见到产出走强之前，宽松周期预期将大概率维持。自上 而下看，权益市场上行弹性更大。风险溢价目前处于均衡区域，指数PE分位数整体位于相对较低位 置，尤其创业板指处于PE分位数低位。从情绪视角看，股价处于200日均线以上的个股占总体的比例能 反映市场高低热度，该指标目前处于较高区域。 东兴证券：市场处于慢牛走势，首选大科技核心板块； 广发证券：2 0 2 5年A股有望回升向好； 申万宏源：A股行情全面启动的条件正在变得丰满； 中信证券：从定量指标看，当前红利策略已呈现较显著底部特征 东兴证券 中信证券研 ...