【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判。通威股份（600438）：预计2025年净亏损90亿元至 100亿元；隆基绿能（601012）：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元。 大家好，马上就要开盘了，一起回顾周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 国常会：听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报 研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日联合发布通知称，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷 款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。中国人民银行各省级分行、国家金融监督管理总局各省级派出机 构根据辖区各城市政府调控要求，按照因城施策原则，在全国统一的最低首付款比例基础上，自主确定 辖区各城市最低首付款比例下限。 证监会对容百科技重大合同公告涉嫌误导性陈述立案调查 据证监会官网，2026年1月14日，宁波容百新能源科技股份有限公司（以下简称容百科技）披露日常经 营重大合同的公告，涉嫌误导性陈述。近日，证监会已对容百科技立案调查。下一步，将在全面调查的 基础上依法处理，切实维护市场健康稳定发展。 隆基绿能：预计2025年净亏损60亿元至65亿元 隆基绿能1月18日公告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 20th Private Equity Fund Development Forum, focusing on the theme of "Walking Towards the Light, Stars and Rivers for Miles," which aims to explore new paths for high-quality development in China's private equity fund industry through discussions on AI empowerment, investment opportunities in equity markets, and the value of CTA strategy allocation [2]. Group 1: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - From a cyclical perspective, the market is expected to be in an upward phase from early 2024 to 2025, with overall valuations still in a bull market mid-stage, indicating no extreme bubbles yet [4]. - AI is identified as a key investment theme for 2026, with a potential shift in focus from hardware to software as commercialization progresses, correcting the current imbalance in AI hardware investment [5]. - The market confidence has been restored due to supportive policies, declining risk-free rates, and improved profit expectations, leading to a cautious optimism for 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is seen as having significant growth potential, comparable to the early stages of the internet and new energy revolutions, with a low penetration rate and vast development space [6]. - The investment focus should be on AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations that China could capture 20%-30% of the global innovative drug market share in the next decade [9]. - The consumer sector is expected to require a clear economic recovery and income growth for substantial gains, while the pharmaceutical sector remains promising due to aging trends [11]. Group 3: Macro-Economic Factors - The current market is characterized by a new Kondratiev wave driven by AI, alongside a transition in the global monetary system, with liquidity easing being a primary driver of market growth since September 2024 [14]. - Investment in large projects is highlighted as a significant variable for 2026, particularly in cyclical industries, while the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable until October 2026 [15].