日本内阁府最新统计显示，日本今年第三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率下降1.8%，为自2024 年第一季度以来第二次负增长。分析认为，这一数据是美国政府自4月起加征汽车关税及实施所谓"对等 关税"所造成的负面影响的直接反映，出口产业尤其是汽车业受到的打击最为沉重。内阁府的中期经济 报告指出，美国关税措施对日本经济的负面影响仍在持续，加之物价上涨削弱消费，日本政府已将2025 财年的经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%。 为解决当前日本面临的经济困境，日本政府于11月21日批准了总额21.3万亿日元的经济刺激计划，其中 17.7万亿日元通过补充预算安排，2.7万亿日元来自减税。支出划分为"生活安全保障与物价对策"11.7万 亿日元、"危机管理与成长投资"7.2万亿日元以及"强化防卫与外交"1.7万亿日元，内容涵盖汽油和柴油 税下调、扩大能源补贴、向未满18岁儿童发放2万日元补贴及提高所得税起征点等。然而经济界普遍认 为，日本政府大规模经济刺激计划，将引发市场对日本财政状况和信用情况的担忧，不仅难以实现预期 效果，还可能进一步伤害日本经济。 自日本高市早苗政府启动以来，日本经济形势持续恶化。首先是美国关税措施 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 前段时间，上市公司2025年三季报陆续公布了。 有朋友问，上市公司的定期报告有哪些，在哪里查看呢？ 过去几年，哪些公司赚钱了，哪些亏钱了？ 今年前3季度，上市公司盈利增长恢复了么？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1111 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 上市公司的定期报告及披露时间 A股上市公司每年会有4份定期报告，分别是一季报、半年报（中报）、三季报和年报。 港股与A股类似，港股上市公司定期报告，也主要是季报、年报等。 不同的是，港股对季报披露时间，并没有强制要求。 实际的披露时间，通常也会比A股要晚一些。 另外，港股的财政年度有可能不是自然年度，而是可以自定义的。 所以三季报，大家主要看A股指数的相关数据。港股指数的数据三季度还不完全，只是定性参考下，等年报数据看会更准确。 这些定期报告，各自的披露时间，如下表所示。 | | A服 | 港股 | | --- | --- | --- | | 季度报告 | 1个月内披露 | 港股对季度报告无强制要求 A + H股公司 ...

如果是这样，那么美国实体经济将面临更大的负面压力，消费和整体经济也很难被提振。如果再考虑到美国中期选举给 经济政策走向带来的影响，那么美国经济前景就存在更大的不确定性。 JerryZang 11月21日公布的数据显示，美国11月密歇根大学消费者信心指数从前值50.3小幅升至51，不过依然处于历史低位。这反 映出美国经济最重要的支柱消费仍然人气不旺。 对于美国经济的增长，消费贡献了超过70%的动力。如果消费出现了大幅萎缩，那么美国经济大概率会出现下行，甚至 负增长。 一段时间以来，美国消费者信心指数一直徘徊于历史低位，这表明美国经济中消费的动力不足。随着美国就业市场出现 疲软的迹象，市场普遍担心消费会大幅萎缩。 为了提振经济，美国总统特朗普从就任以来就极力呼吁美联储尽快降息。然而，美联储在今年9月和10月分别降息25个 基点后不断释放出在12月暂停降息的信号。这似乎也意味着在明年5月鲍威尔卸任美联储主席之前美联储同样会在降息 问题上采取谨慎态度。这甚至进一步意味着在明年5月特朗普总统任命新的美联储主席后，美联储也未必会如特朗普总 统之愿而快速降息。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据 ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 策略研究 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 ——2026 年度策略展望 要点 长期牛市的基础 本轮牛市无论在时间还是空间之上，都仍然值得期待。牛市持续需要的不仅是流 动性的好转，历史来看，时间周期越长，市场与基本面的相关性就越高。因此在 我们展望长期牛市可能性的时候，基本面的稳健改善仍然是基础，政策往往提供 了预期改善的拐点，资金决定斜率与节奏。牛市至此，未来更需要关注基本面预 期的兑现。 盈利总量稳定，关注结构亮点 关注"十五五" 开局之年政策共振。政策方面，"十五五"规划建议为未来五 年的经济与产业发展提供了重要的政策基础。五年规划开局之年，市场通常都有 不错的表现，结构也将与政策增量方向相一致。此外，金融政策预计仍然整体处 于放松周期之中。 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 市场当前位置有望是长期牛市的起点。基本面的逐步好转与产业亮点仍然是市场 长期牛市的基础，居民资金的流入与"十五五"开局之年的政策支持将决定市场 的斜率与节奏。与往年全面牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是 在政府对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。 行业主线与切换可能 2026 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称"美联储"）公布了10月联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 会议纪要显示，许多与会者支持降低联邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持 利率不变同样可接受。另有数名官员反对降息。 美联储最终以10比2的投票结果通过降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间降至3.75%至4%。但此次纪要 表明决定是在激烈争论下勉强达成的共识，而12月是否会再度降息仍存在不确定性。 郭一鸣则表示："因为A股定价核心仍锚定国内基本面，当前稳健的货币政策与持续加码的稳增长措施 有望形成有效对冲，且市场前期已逐步消化部分外部预期，冲击幅度或处于可控范围。" 展望明年A股走势，郭一鸣预计，A股有望呈现"先抑后扬、逐步震荡上行"的慢牛格局。 "预计驱动因素将从当前的流动性宽松预期，逐步切换至基本面实质复苏的验证。全球主要国家宽财政 与宽货币的政策环境仍有利于需求回暖，国内企业盈利亦有望随经济修复而稳步回升，共同支撑市场的 中长期趋势。"郭一鸣解释说。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs before experiencing a downturn, causing panic among investors [3][31]. - The absence of the U.S. CPI data has led to market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, with concerns that interest rates may not be lowered in December [4][6]. - The article highlights that despite the lack of CPI data, the Federal Reserve has other data to consider, and the current economic situation in the U.S. is not as strong as it appears, masked by the tech boom [9][10]. Group 2 - There has been a significant increase in non-bank loans in the U.S., with $550 billion in new loans in the first ten months of the year, marking a 40% growth rate [18][19]. - Non-bank loans have surpassed the total of real estate, industrial, and consumer loans combined, indicating a shift in credit dynamics [19][21]. - The article outlines the main areas where non-bank loans are directed, including commercial real estate, residential mortgages, corporate credit, and consumer finance, driven by tighter bank regulations and the need for flexible financing [22][23]. Group 3 - The article notes a style shift in the market, with a general decline influenced by overseas factors, while certain sectors like finance and small-cap stocks have shown resilience [31][33]. - The Hong Kong stock market is more affected by overseas influences, and there have been recommendations to increase positions in insurance and Hong Kong dividend stocks during corrections [34][39]. - The article emphasizes that despite internal style rotations, the overall index is still on a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [43][44]. Group 4 - Recent economic data shows a decline in M1 and M2 growth rates, with M1 decreasing to 6.2% and M2 to 8.2%, indicating potential challenges in the stock market [53][59]. - Retail sales growth has slowed to 2.93%, suggesting a sluggish recovery in consumer spending, with restaurant revenues showing some improvement [62][66]. - Real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, but the article suggests that funds from the real estate market may flow into the stock market [67][68]. Group 5 - The article mentions a rebound in soybean meal prices, with potential for further increases if supply issues arise towards the end of the year [69]. - It highlights the cyclical nature of the market, emphasizing that returns are not linear and that investors should be prepared for periods of volatility [71][73]. - The article advises against certain mindsets during bull markets, such as chasing highs or being overly sensitive to account fluctuations, suggesting a focus on long-term investment strategies [76][77].

2025年前三季度，长三角三省一市地区生产总值合计达25.18万亿元，占全国GDP总量的24.81%，持续稳居全国经济"压舱石"和"增长极"地位。 今年前三季度，长三角地区经济运行稳中有进、韧性凸显，41座城市形成清晰梯度格局，发展动能持续充沛，在全国经济版图中的核心作用进一步凸 显。在"十四五"收官的关键期，以上海为龙头，苏浙皖各扬所长、协同发力，长三角正持续释放高质量发展动能。 经济总量"你追我赶" 今年前三季度，沪苏浙皖GDP总量达25.18万亿元，约占全国GDP的24.81%，延续了近年来稳步增长的良好态势。长三角内部发展均衡，省际协同与城 市竞合态势良好。江苏以102811亿元的GDP总量领跑长三角，浙江（68495亿元）、上海（40721.17亿元）、安徽（39770亿元）紧随其后，形成梯度发展、 相互支撑的格局；增速方面，浙江以5.7%位居三省一市首位，上海、江苏、安徽均为5.4%，全部高于全国平均水平。 41座城市中，31座经济增速跑赢全国5.2%的平均水平，14座城市增速突破6%，7座城市生产总值超过1万亿元，区域发展的均衡性与活力性同步提升。 经济总量的梯队格局尤为清晰。第一梯队的9座万亿 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on the "price increase diffusion" trend, indicating a potential market shift towards sectors benefiting from rising prices, particularly in the context of recent economic data and consumer behavior [2][11][12] - The energy storage industry is highlighted as a key area of interest, with significant price increases in midstream materials driven by supply-demand mismatches and growing storage needs, suggesting a robust profit elasticity potential [21][22] - The AI sector continues to show strong demand, but supply shortages, particularly in AI chips and power, are becoming critical issues, necessitating attention to storage and power solutions [27][31] Market Overview - Recent market activity has shown a clear rotation in styles, with the previously leading TMT sector experiencing adjustments while consumer sectors like retail and food & beverage have become more active [11][12] - Economic indicators from October reveal a mixed picture, with investment pressures increasing while consumer spending shows signs of recovery, suggesting a potential shift in market focus [11][12][20] Industry and Economic Data - October CPI and PPI data indicate a gradual recovery in consumer demand, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards service consumption [16][20] - The report notes that the storage market has officially replaced power batteries as a new growth direction for the lithium battery sector, with China's new energy storage installations exceeding 100GW, marking a significant increase [21][22] Investment Trends - The report identifies a divergence in profit recovery expectations between technology sectors and traditional midstream industries, which could shape future investment strategies [22] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to accelerate, creating a favorable environment for price increase trends across various sectors [22] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the consumer services, textiles, and pharmaceuticals sectors have shown strong performance, while technology sectors have faced notable adjustments [20][23] - The report also indicates that the AI infrastructure remains a critical area for investment, with major cloud providers continuing to increase capital expenditures significantly [27][29]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's announcement on November 10 to stop writing Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter and speaking at shareholder meetings marks the end of an investment era that has lasted over half a century [2] - The transition of leadership to Greg Abel signifies a potential shift in Berkshire's investment strategy, moving away from pure long-termism to a more diversified and shorter holding period approach [2][3] - Berkshire Hathaway's recent performance has struggled to outperform the S&P 500, highlighting strategic challenges and the need for adaptation in a rapidly changing market environment dominated by technology [3][4] Investment Strategy - Buffett's investment philosophy has traditionally focused on undervalued blue-chip stocks, primarily within the traditional American economy, including sectors like consumer goods, finance, and energy [3] - The rise of technology as a core driver of economic growth necessitates a reevaluation of value investing principles, as traditional methods may not be sufficient in the current high-valuation environment [4] - Berkshire's significant cash reserves provide an opportunity to capitalize on market adjustments, despite the challenges posed by the current investment landscape [4][5] Legacy and Future - Buffett's retirement does not signify the end of value investing but rather a transformation and continuation of his core principles, emphasizing the importance of patience and adaptability in investment strategies [5] - The need for the market to allow Greg Abel sufficient time to establish his investment approach is crucial for the evolution of value investing [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that during the PPI recovery phase, small-cap value stocks tend to outperform, with small-cap growth also showing potential for good performance [4][10][12] - Historical analysis shows that in previous PPI recovery phases, the market style favored small-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly when liquidity remains loose [10][11] - The report highlights that the cyclical sector tends to outperform during PPI recovery phases, as its performance is closely tied to PPI movements and investment demand [12][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent market sentiment has shifted towards cyclical and consumer staples sectors, with increased attention on these indices [4][39] - In terms of industry preference, sectors such as electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials have seen significant net inflows, while sectors like electronics and non-ferrous metals experienced net outflows [47] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming years, particularly 2026, may witness a significant investment boost due to the alignment of China's five-year plans and the U.S. election cycle, potentially benefiting related sectors [4][9]