专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 换季是生活的自然切换 或许也是投资的机会窗口 顺着季节变换的脉络捕捉行业趋势 让基金配置跟上换季的节奏~ 消费板块：季节轮转间，激活消费新势能 进入十月，气温渐凉推动消费者需求"换季"。在政策发力与"金九银十"消费热潮的推动下，消费市场活 力正加速释放。 消费增长韧性凸显 今年以来，各项提振消费政策落地显效，消费市场整体保持稳健增长态势。今年1-7月，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长4.8%，其中餐饮收入同比增长3.8%、商品零售额同比增长4.9%。 局，《2025年7月份社会消费品零售总额增长3.7%》，截至2025.8.15。 "换季经济"升温 换季时节，"换季经济"升温。服装店里，轻盈的夏装逐渐让位于各式秋装；季节转换期间，皮肤敏感、 干燥问题增多，保湿、修复类护肤品关注度提升；食品饮料领域，热咖啡、养生茶饮、火锅等重回消 费"C位"。 消费市场迎多重利好 自9月1日起，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》正式实施，降低消费信贷成本，叠加"金九银 十"传统旺季，消费市场增长空间有望进一步打开。 医疗板块：季节交替时，健康赛道迎布局窗口 "一场秋雨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market and economic indicators during the National Day holiday, highlighting the strong stock market despite weak consumption and real estate data [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1.3%, breaking through the 3900 mark, driven by positive sentiment around AI narratives [5]. - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.785% after opening at 1.7925% [5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer spending during the holiday was weak, with an average daily expenditure of 113 yuan per person, recovering to 97% of 2019 levels [5]. - Real estate transaction volumes in key cities saw a significant decline, with year-on-year reductions of nearly 50% [5]. - Movie box office revenues were down nearly 60% compared to 2019, reflecting ongoing challenges in the entertainment sector [5].

今年以来，从美国及主要亚洲市场的股市表现来看，中国股市是表现最佳的市场之一。近期美银在欧洲机构路演中 表示，不少投资者看好中国股市的反弹将会持续到年底。 据追风交易台消息，美林在9月29日的报告中表示，其最新调研显示，欧洲投资者对中国股市信心显著回升。巴黎小 组会上近70%的投资者以及伦敦小组会上近100%的投资者预计中国股市反弹将持续至年底。 欧洲具备 "全新视角" 的新入场投资者，更看好中国股市相对偏低的估值、持续释放的创新活力，以及 "政策看跌期 权" 带来的风险缓冲。他们提出一个新颖看涨逻辑，与2015年A股反弹期间类似，在目前经济环境下，中国股市或将 迎来向好契机。 尽管一些新兴市场基金对于中国股市已从低配转向中性至超配，但迄今为止外部资本流入似乎有限。全球基金仍维 持低配或在中国持有少量头寸，一些基金今年因为专注于欧洲而错过了中国，今年以来中国股市成为表现最佳的市 场之一，全球基金更愿意在市场层面和特定主题/板块（如全球金融/科技基金）增加中国配置。 美银建议投资者重点关注中国家庭存款持续流入股市推动市场重定价、股市正面财富效应扭转消费与CPI进而提振消 费股。 关于对中国股市的投资策略，美银在报 ...

10月1日晚，自贡市南湖体育中心灯火璀璨，作为2025/2026四川省城市足球联赛（以下简称"川 超"）国庆长假首日唯一一场赛事，川南赛区自贡灯城燊龙队与内江重龍酒队在此展开"咸甜对决"。最 终自贡灯城燊龙队以4∶0战胜内江重龍酒队，主场拿下比赛。 当晚，能够容纳两万多名观众的自贡市南湖体育中心球迷呐喊声此起彼伏。球场外，自贡、内江两 地推出的消费季活动也精彩纷呈。以赛事为媒，"双节"假期，类似场景还将在省内多个城市上演 ——"川超"将展开两轮争夺，4个赛区6天时间为广大球迷献上18场精彩对决；同时，全省21个市（州） 还将针对"川超"赛事，配套文旅活动，邀请大家到四川看球赛、赏美景、品美食。 据悉，今年内，四川将举办包括国际乒联混合团体世界杯在内共计50余项国际国内重大赛事，全省 将举办县级以上赛事活动超1.1万场。以赛为媒，四川正跑出文体旅融合发展"加速度"。（记者 薛剑 田 珊） 赛场上的较量精彩不断，赛场外的烟火气也让人感到暖心。自贡在"双节"假期开放133个机关事业 单位停车场，提供4518个免费停车位，覆盖主要景区及赛事场地；雅安推出凭"川超"门票可在158家商 户享受"餐饮+住宿+购物+景区"特 ...

Economic Indicators - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the US in Q2 2025 was significantly revised up to 3.8%, from a previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023[6] - The strong GDP growth has cooled global interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October now at 89.8%, down from 91.9%[3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6643.70, showing a decline of 0.31% over the week, while the Hang Seng Index and KOSPI led declines in the Asia-Pacific region[8] - The technology sector in the US saw a significant outflow of $4.33 billion, while China's technology sector experienced an inflow of $3.55 billion[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, US equity markets saw inflows of $8.26 billion, while Chinese markets attracted $5.48 billion[15] - Developed markets experienced notable inflows, with US fixed income funds seeing an inflow of $18.85 billion[15] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 4.60%, and COMEX gold rose by 2.83% during the week, indicating a stronger inflation outlook[3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.55%, currently standing at 98.2, remaining below the 100 mark[9] Valuation Metrics - The risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ decreased to 49% and 45%, respectively, indicating a decline in perceived investment quality[3] - The PE percentile for the S&P 500 and DAX is at 93.0% and 89.5%, respectively, suggesting high valuations compared to historical averages[3]

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商 学界精英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 点击在 看 持续关注↓ ↓ ↓ 不过，这一被动配置行为却给林园带来了不小的困扰。林园一直坚持满仓策略，认为只有满仓才能赚足行情，并通过持有优质公司来应对市场波动。 他偏好投资盈利能力确定、具有垄断地位及成瘾性特征的行业龙头，尤其聚焦于消费和医药等刚性需求赛道。他坦言投资科创板让他备受煎熬。"搞 了以后，对我来说也是很痛苦，我买了以后才后悔，把我折腾的多少个晚上都睡不着觉。因为我买了是不卖的。" （编者按：8月16日，上交所发布《上海市场首次公开发行股票网下发行实施细则（2024年修订）》。自2024年10月1日起，对于私募基金等专业 机构投资者参与网下打新，规则有所不同。根据2024年10月起实施的新规，私募基金等专业机构投资者参与网下打新，除了要满足原有的沪市总市 值门槛，还必须持有至少600万元的科创板股票流通市值作为底仓。这个规定是为了引导机构更关注科创板公司的长期价值，而不仅仅是短期打新收 益，从而为科创板市场带来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation, with growth styles recently underperforming while value styles are gaining traction. This indicates a potential shift in investment strategies and opportunities in different sectors [5][7][22]. Market Performance - The market index showed a decline during the day, reaching a low of 4.3 stars but rebounded to 4.2 stars by the end of the trading session [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [3]. - Growth styles faced a more considerable downturn, while value styles overall increased [4][7]. Sector Analysis - The banking index saw an overall increase, although it had previously reached a high valuation before correcting to a normal valuation [8][9][10]. - The recent market structure favors active selection strategies, as evidenced by the slight increase in active selection portfolios [12][13]. Market Trends - The market is characterized by structural bull markets where certain sectors lead while others lag, with each bull market cycle featuring different leading sectors [14]. - Bull markets are not continuous; they often exhibit patterns of rapid increases followed by corrections, indicating the need for patience from investors [15][16]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown 2-3 cycles of significant short-term increases followed by consolidation or corrections [17][18]. Investment Strategy - For investment strategies, the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, suggesting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings until a low valuation is reached again [21]. - The active selection portfolio continues normal investments, while the monthly salary treasure portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [44][45]. Personal Pension Investment - The pension index funds, specifically the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, have returned to normal valuations, leading to a pause in new investments until they reach undervalued levels again [31][32]. - The performance of these pension index funds has shown profitability, with the CSI A500 up by approximately 20% and the CSI Dividend up by about 4% over the recent months [37].

记者丨 张伟泽 编辑丨朱丽娜 李艳霞 今年以来，港股IPO市场认购盛况空前，"超额认购王"纪录屡创新高。其中，大行科工以7558 倍的认购倍数领先，而紧随其后的布鲁可和银诺医药分别获得6000倍和5342倍的踊跃认购。 9月23日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布《2025年前三季度中国内地和香港新股市场回顾与展 望》（下称"报告"），报告指出，以集资额计算，港交所预计将蝉联全球新股集资榜首。 德勤预计，今年前三季度，香港将迎来66只新股上市，集资总额达1823亿港元。新股数量较去 年同期的45只增长47%，集资额较去年同期的556亿港元大幅上升228%。 德勤在报告中指出，预计今年最后一个季度，香港新股市场将延续强劲势头，2025年全年香港 将迎来超过80宗新股上市，总集资额介于2500亿至2800亿港元之间。 德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴指出，随着美联储开启降息周期，预计更多海外资金将涌入 亚洲高成长性投资标的，包括中国内地与香港市场。这将为今年第四季度香港多宗超大型新股 发行提供充足的资金、流动性支持，并营造更有利的估值环境。他预计，A+H上市、生物科技 及科技板块将继续成为香港新股市场的主要动力。 政策与 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent release of quarterly reports for A-share and H-share listed companies, focusing on their profitability trends and recovery in earnings growth for the first half of 2025 [1][10] - A-share companies are required to disclose four periodic reports annually: quarterly, semi-annual, and annual reports, while H-share companies have more flexible reporting timelines [4][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring earnings growth as a key driver for market performance, summarizing that stock index returns are derived from valuation, earnings, and dividends [11] Group 2 - The profitability trends of various indices are analyzed, including the performance of broad-based indices, strategy indices, and industry/theme indices [13][39] - The overall profitability of A-shares, represented by the CSI All Share Index, showed a decline in 2024 but rebounded with a 4.46% growth in Q1 2025 and 2.19% in Q2 2025 [20] - The CSI 300 index, representing large-cap stocks, demonstrated stable earnings growth, with a consistent positive net profit over the past five years, although growth rates have been lower during the economic downturn [22][24] Group 3 - The CSI 500 index, representing mid-cap stocks, experienced significant fluctuations in profitability, with a notable recovery in 2025, showing 6.51% growth in Q1 and 3.6% in Q2 [26] - The CSI 1000 index, representing small-cap stocks, had a dramatic 68.02% growth in 2021 but faced declines in 2023-2024, recovering to 16.13% growth in Q1 2025, though slowing to 0.44% in Q2 [29][33] - The ChiNext Index, representing growth-oriented stocks, showed a strong 30.79% growth in Q1 2025, with a decrease to 13.39% in Q2 [33] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index demonstrated stable earnings growth, with a 16.32% increase in Q1 2025, but a significant drop to 0.14% in Q2 [35] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-shares) also showed stable profitability, recovering after declines in 2020 and 2021, with consistent growth in 2022-2025 [37] - The article highlights the performance of various strategy indices, such as the CSI Dividend Index, which showed stable growth in profitability from 2022 to 2025 [42]

美国最新的消费者信心指数的进一步大幅下滑对美联储本月议息会议上重启降息进程起到一定的支撑。从目前公布的一 系列最新的经济数据看，美联储本月降息几乎是板上钉钉的事情。有机构甚至认为，美联储本月会一次降息50个基点。 笔者认为，美联储本月降息25个基点是更大概率的事情，未来一段时间内美联储仍然会在降息问题上秉持谨慎态度，大 幅而快速降息的概率不大，除非美国经济出现了非常明显的加速下行的趋势。 目前，特朗普总统的关税政策仍然存在很大的变数，由此带给美国经济的不确定性仍然存在，这给美国经济带来了相当 的负面压力。 9月12日公布的数据显示，美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数从前值58.2下降至55.4。美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数从上月处于的历史低位进一步大幅下滑，这表明美国经济的最重要的支柱消费正在进一步恶化。 与此同时，美国经济还面临着来自"黑天鹅事件"的可能的负面冲击。这使得美国经济的前景更加扑朔迷离。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...