细分市场表现分化显著。2025年特种化学品受益于涂料品类8.4%的高增长，整体增幅达4.3%，但2026 年预计整体下降0.2%，涂料增速收窄至0.4%；基础化学品2025年微增0.1%，无机化学品与塑料树脂产 量下滑抵消部分增长，2026年整体增幅将回升至1.2%，合成橡胶与人造纤维产量回落；农用化学品与 日用化学品持续承压，2026年预计分别下降1.0%和1.5%。2025年美国农用化学品产量增长了2.7%而日 用化学品产量下降了2.2%。 尽管经济不确定性有所缓解，但贸易波动、高利率等因素仍存制约。2024年年末至2025年年初，美国制 造业的增长势头因关税政策变动及客户库存高企而逐渐消退，导致化工消费领域产出下调。不过ACC 预测，2026年年中，行业将迎来复苏拐点；下半年复苏进程逐步推进；工业产能扩张计划与降息政策的 滞后效应，将为2026年年末至2027年增长提速提供支撑。 终端应用市场同样冷暖不均。2025年20个追踪市场中11个消费量下滑，服装行业降幅达3%，而半导体 与电子行业以12%的增幅领跑。人工智能(AI)成为增长核心驱动力，2025年带动美国企业投资增速达 4.1%，直接拉动半导体材 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of benzene and butadiene, essential raw materials for automotive and apparel industries, have dropped by approximately 20% over the past month and a half, raising concerns about declining global automotive demand due to economic downturns and tariff impacts [1][4]. Group 1: Benzene Market - The price of benzene in East Asia fell to $750 per ton as of April 14, a decrease of $85 (10%) from the previous week, and down $175 (19%) compared to the last week of February [3]. - Benzene is a key raw material for various products, including polystyrene, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), and ABS resin, as well as nylon fibers for apparel [3]. - The decline in benzene prices is attributed to a slowdown in exports to the U.S. and a sluggish Chinese economy, compounded by tariff disputes affecting global economic outlooks [3][4]. - ENEOS's April contract price for benzene dropped by $90 (10%) to $835 per ton, marking a new low since July 2023 [3]. Group 2: Butadiene Market - Butadiene prices in Asia fell to $1,145 per ton as of April 11, down $170 (13%) from the previous week and $320 (22%) from February's peak [4]. - The weakening demand for butadiene is linked to the broader economic decline and reduced automotive demand, which is increasingly recognized in the market [4]. - The apparel sector may also face challenges, as platforms like SHEIN could see production slow due to changing tariff conditions in the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Naphtha Market - The price of naphtha, a feedstock for benzene and butadiene, has also weakened, dropping below $600 per ton in early April [4]. - There are mixed views on the future of naphtha prices, with some suggesting that reduced imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and ethane by China to avoid high tariffs could lead to increased naphtha procurement, potentially supporting prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese companies with significant revenue from China are facing challenges, as indicated by a decline in their market capitalization index from 100 to 67 since March 7, 2024, due to intensified competition from Chinese firms and economic concerns stemming from US-China tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The weighted average market capitalization of ten major Japanese companies with high revenue from China has dropped significantly, while companies like SUBARU and Takeda Pharmaceutical, which have higher revenue from the US, remain relatively stable at 91 [2]. - The Japanese stock market is particularly affected by the performance of Chinese concept stocks, which are struggling amid fears of economic slowdown and increased competition from Chinese enterprises [2]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Expectations - The Japanese market is closely watching China's National People's Congress for policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, with a notable increase in the mention of "consumption" in the government work report [1]. - There are expectations that China's economic stimulus measures starting in 2024 could positively impact Japanese companies' performance [1]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, are gaining market share through cost reductions and innovations, with BYD's electric vehicle sales projected to grow by 40% in 2024, while Japanese automakers like Honda and Nissan are experiencing declines in sales [2][3]. - The rise of Chinese firms is attributed not only to government subsidies but also to significant improvements in production efficiency, with labor productivity in China increasing by 30% from 2017 to 2022, compared to a 7% increase in Japan [3]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Despite the competitive pressures, some Japanese companies are investing in China, such as Toyota's plan to build a Lexus factory in Shanghai and launch a budget EV [4]. - Pigeon Corporation, a baby products giant, is implementing aggressive marketing strategies to recover its lost market share in China, aiming for a 20% increase in sales [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in China is described as overly competitive, raising questions about the prospects for Japanese companies [5]. - There is a belief that Japanese firms, known for their quality and price balance, may have opportunities to regain market share, especially in sectors like AI and hardware [5].