证券代码：600426 证券简称：华鲁恒升 编号：临 2026-014 山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司 2025 年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年年度报告披露工作的通 知》、《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息披露第十三号—化工》的要求，山 东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年度主要经营数据披 露如下： | 本年主要产品 | 生产量（万吨） | 销售量（万吨） | 收入（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新能源新材料相关产品 | 488.45 | 300.23 | 155.57 | | 化学肥料 | 590.43 | 575.15 | 73.06 | | 有机胺系列产品 | 62.62 | 58.59 | 23.61 | | 醋酸及衍生品 | 157.68 | 156.23 | 33.87 | 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 注：新能源新材料相关产品生产量 ...

Summary of Coal Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is highly sensitive to international oil prices. When oil prices reach $70 per barrel, coal-to-olefins (CTO) becomes economically viable, while coal-to-ethylene glycol (EG) can break even. If oil prices stabilize between $80-$90 per barrel, it may trigger policy relaxation and an investment surge [2][6]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to rise from 70%-80% to over 95% if oil prices stabilize in the $70-$80 range, potentially increasing coal consumption for chemical use by 80 million to 100 million tons [2][10]. - Profitability varies among core products: coal-to-olefins (MTO/MTP) has a reduced consumption of 2.6-2.8 tons of methanol, showing significant profitability; coal-to-ethylene glycol has been in long-term losses with a utilization rate of only 60%-70%; coal-to-oil requires oil prices to reach $110-$130 to break even [2][6]. Key Insights - **Approval Policies and Regional Differences**: Post-2023, policies have relaxed due to economic pressures, with Xinjiang being the most favorable region for approvals. The number of projects in preparation has decreased by over 50% compared to the previous five years [2][9][10]. - **Cost Structure and Resource Endowment**: Companies with their own coal mines have a significant advantage, with internal coal prices around 450 RMB per ton. Energy consumption indicators in the northwest have improved, with reductions of 30%-40% from 2016 levels, and CCUS technology is helping to lower carbon emission constraints [2][6][15]. Product-Specific Insights - **High Elasticity Products**: In the context of widening coal-oil price differentials, by-products like benzene and coal tar show the highest profitability elasticity. Methanol, with million-ton capacity leverage, significantly contributes to profits for large enterprises [3][17]. - **Coal-to-Methanol**: The industry is currently at a breakeven point, with companies producing over 1 million tons able to maintain profitability, especially if they own coal mines. However, profitability dropped in early 2026 before recovering [8][12]. - **Coal-to-Ethylene Glycol**: The industry is facing long-term losses, with an overall utilization rate of 60%-70%. Future profitability largely depends on oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel [12][13]. Challenges and Opportunities - The coal chemical industry faces challenges such as high sensitivity to international oil prices, environmental and water resource constraints, and a lack of advanced product development. Some sectors are experiencing overcapacity [6][15]. - The potential for policy relaxation in the coal chemical sector depends on sustained high oil prices and international geopolitical stability, which could lead to increased investment and project approvals [13][14]. Regulatory Environment - Recent important policy documents emphasize the clean and efficient use of coal and the need for high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development in the coal chemical industry. The approval pace for new projects has slowed, with large projects typically limited to around 10 approvals per year [14][15]. Conclusion - The coal chemical industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for growth contingent on oil price stability and favorable regulatory conditions. The ability to adapt to environmental standards and leverage technological advancements will be crucial for future profitability and sustainability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply tightening may impact overseas refinery operations, with significant implications for oil prices and refining costs [5][6]. - The Middle East plays a crucial role in global oil supply, with 37% of global production and 20% of consumption passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently facing disruptions [5][6]. - The report anticipates a shift in the Asian chemical trade landscape, with Chinese companies likely to benefit from supply disruptions in the Middle East [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $92.69 per barrel, a 27.88% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices reached $90.90 per barrel, up 35.63% [16]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 439 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 253 million barrels [18]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs increased slightly to 551, while Canadian rigs decreased to 205 [29] [30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin rose to $34.11 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $25.3 per barrel [5]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices stabilize and economic recovery progresses [5][12]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has declined, with the average price in East China at 5440.83 CNY per ton, a 4.37% increase week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][12]. - It also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to expected high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply tightening may impact overseas refinery operations, with significant implications for the cost of raw materials and overall market dynamics [5][6]. - The Middle East, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, plays a crucial role in global oil supply, accounting for 37% of total production and 20% of global consumption passing through the Strait of Hormuz [5][6]. - The report anticipates a shift in chemical trade dynamics in Asia, with Chinese companies likely to benefit from disruptions in Middle Eastern raw material supplies [5][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $92.69 per barrel, a 27.88% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices reached $90.90 per barrel, up 35.63% [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 439 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 253 million barrels [21][34]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased slightly to 551, while year-on-year comparisons show a significant decline [34]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products rose to $34.11 per barrel, indicating improved profitability for refiners [5]. - The report notes that the refining capacity utilization rate in the Middle East is projected at 79% for 2024, with potential supply shortages looming due to geopolitical tensions [8][10]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has declined, with PTA prices showing a slight increase to 5440.83 CNY per ton [5][14]. - The report suggests that the polyester supply-demand balance is tightening, with expectations for improvement in market conditions [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [14]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the exploration and development sector [14].

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company (00338.HK) by 388,000 shares on February 27 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there were four days of reductions by southbound funds, totaling a net reduction of 11.718 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of reductions, with a cumulative net reduction of 30.182 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 985 million shares of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, accounting for 30.63% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical Company primarily engages in petrochemical business through three segments: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [1] - The refining products segment includes facilities for producing qualified gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heavy oil, and liquefied petroleum gas [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company (00338.HK) by 6.802 million shares on February 26, with a total net reduction of 9.19 million shares over the last five trading days and 33.406 million shares over the last twenty trading days [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 985 million shares of Shanghai Petrochemical, accounting for 30.64% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Petrochemical Company primarily engages in petrochemical business through three segments: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [1] - The refining products segment includes facilities for producing qualified refined gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heavy oil, and liquefied petroleum gas [1] - The chemical products segment mainly produces paraxylene, benzene, ethylene oxide, polyethylene resin, polypropylene resin, acrylic fiber, and carbon fiber [1] - The petrochemical product trading segment focuses on the import and export trade of petrochemical products [1] - The company also engages in leasing, providing services, and various other commercial activities, operating in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's petrochemical product exports declined by 1.5% year-on-year in January, totaling $35.2 billion, primarily due to global oversupply affecting prices, despite strong semiconductor exports [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In January, South Korea's overall export value surged by 33.9% year-on-year, reaching $658.5 billion, driven by robust semiconductor exports [1] - The import value also increased by 11.7% year-on-year, amounting to $571.1 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $87.4 billion [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The decline in petrochemical exports is attributed to low prices caused by global supply excess, impacting the overall export performance of the petrochemical sector [1] - The South Korean petrochemical industry is undergoing a restructuring phase supported by the government, with companies agreeing to reduce production capacity by August 2025 due to ongoing low profit margins and supply surplus [1]

Summary of MDI and TDI Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **MDI Industry**: - Global MDI total capacity is projected to reach 11 million tons with a demand of approximately 8.5 million tons in 2025 [2] - Domestic MDI capacity is expected to be 5.5 million tons, with polymer MDI demand at 2 million tons and pure MDI demand at 1 million tons [2] - Exports are anticipated to decline by 30% to 800,000 tons, while imports are expected to increase by 30% to over 100,000 tons [1][2] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports is significant, particularly in April and July [2] - **TDI Industry**: - Global TDI total capacity is estimated at 3.7 million tons with a demand of 2.8 million tons in 2025 [4] - Domestic TDI capacity is 2 million tons with an operating rate near 70% and demand around 900,000 tons, down 5% year-on-year due to the real estate market [4] - Exports are strong, reaching 550,000 tons, a 50% increase year-on-year [4] Price Trends - **MDI Prices**: - MDI prices are expected to drop from 18,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of 2025 to around 14,000 RMB/ton by year-end, with strong cost support [1][3] - Production costs for Wanhua Chemical are between 8,600 and 9,100 RMB/ton, while market prices range from 15,000 to 18,000 RMB/ton, indicating a remaining profit margin [3] - **TDI Prices**: - TDI prices are volatile, starting at 15,000 RMB/ton, dropping to 11,000-11,500 RMB/ton due to demand fluctuations and tariffs, then rising to 18,000 RMB/ton during peak season before settling at 14,000-14,500 RMB/ton [4] - TDI prices are expected to stabilize between 15,000 and 16,000 RMB/ton in 2026, supported by raw material costs [12][13] Demand Projections - **MDI Demand**: - Expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, driven by sectors such as refrigerators, automobiles, cold storage vehicles, engineered wood, and wind turbine blades [8] - Specific growth areas include: - Refrigerators: 1.6% growth in production [8] - Automotive: 10% increase in production and 9.4% in sales in 2025, with a forecasted 5-6% growth in 2026 [8] - Engineered wood: 8-10% growth due to the trend of using formaldehyde-free boards [8] - **TDI Demand**: - Demand is expected to remain stable, with a focus on the recovery of the real estate market and increased promotional activities in furniture and footwear sectors [12] Supply Side and Capacity - No new capacity is expected to be released in 2025, with reliance on previously completed projects [10] - Current inventory levels are slightly elevated due to reduced operating rates, with expectations of higher inventory by February [7] Additional Insights - The U.S. cold wave has led to port closures, affecting natural gas prices and power supply, which could impact production in the Gulf of Mexico [5] - Global price increases for MDI and TDI were noted, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe experiencing faster and longer-lasting price hikes compared to China [6] - The chemical industry is expected to see favorable conditions for price increases due to reduced competition and the cancellation of export tax rebates [15]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview: Petrochemical and Chemical Sector Key Insights - The petrochemical industry saw a significant increase in holding proportion to 0.6% in Q4 2025, up from 0.35% in Q3 2025, indicating rising market interest, particularly in upstream companies like Jereh, the "Three Barrels of Oil," and Baofeng [3][1] - Some petrochemical product prices, including benzene, PX, styrene, and ethylene glycol, have rebounded due to supply-side disruptions such as maintenance and unplanned shutdowns, despite current demand being in a low season [5][1] - The chemical industry’s active public fund allocation increased by 0.6% in Q4 2025, yet it remains under-allocated, suggesting significant future growth potential [7][1] Future Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for the chemical industry due to declining capital expenditures, near-zero capacity growth in most sub-industries, and restrictions from dual carbon policies on new project expansions [8][1] - The IMF's upward revision of global economic growth expectations is expected to boost chemical demand, particularly in emerging sectors like energy storage, robotics, AI, and commercial aerospace [9][1] Regulatory Impact - The dual carbon policy will significantly restrict new project expansions, requiring carbon emission evaluations as a prerequisite for project approvals. This is expected to pose challenges for new projects until 2027 [10][1] Sub-Industry Insights Polyurethane, PTA, and Polyester Filament - Polyurethane prices have recently adjusted but are expected to rise during the peak season from March to May. Limited capacity growth in PTA and polyester filament, along with high operating rates, is driving gradual improvements in market conditions [4][1][13][1] Potash and Refrigerants - Potash prices have steadily increased to around 3,000 CNY, with tight supply conditions expected to persist due to rising global consumption. The refrigerant market is stable but anticipated to rise as the peak season approaches, with significant price potential for mainstream refrigerants [16][1] Market Dynamics - The chemical and non-ferrous metal industries face supply constraints, with slow resource expansion potentially leading to long-term price increases. The dual carbon policy may similarly impact chemical products, creating a scenario of constrained supply against growing demand [11][1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies like Baofeng, Weixing, and private refining firms as key investment targets in the cyclical sector. Additionally, consider investment opportunities in companies like Xin'an and Hesheng Silicon Industry in the silicon chemical sector, and in potassium fertilizer companies like Yajiang International and Salt Lake Co. [6][1][14][1][16][1] Conclusion - The petrochemical and chemical industries are poised for significant changes driven by market dynamics, regulatory impacts, and evolving demand patterns. Investors should remain vigilant and consider strategic allocations in identified growth areas while monitoring policy developments and market trends.

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds increased their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company by 1.56 million shares on January 19, while experiencing a net reduction of 23.63 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings in the company for 17 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 45.74 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 1.019 billion shares of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, accounting for 31.69% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Petrochemical Company, a subsidiary of Sinopec, primarily engages in the petrochemical business through three segments: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [1] - The refining products segment includes facilities for producing qualified refined gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heavy oil, and liquefied petroleum gas [1] - The chemical products segment mainly produces paraxylene, benzene, ethylene oxide, polyethylene resin, polypropylene resin, acrylic fiber, and carbon fiber [1] - The petrochemical product trading segment focuses on the import and export trade of petrochemical products [1] - The company also engages in leasing, providing services, and various other commercial activities, operating in both domestic and international markets [1]