证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 2 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2026 年 01 月 07 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、文莱炼化二期项目全面启动，控股股东增持彰显长期发展信心--恒逸石 化/炼化及贸易(000703/217503) 公司点评 分析师：李永磊 S0350521080004 分析师：董伯骏 S0350521080009 分析师：仲逸涵 S0350525070003 事件: 1）2026 年 1 月 5 日，恒逸石化发布关于全面启动文莱炼化二期项目建设的进展公告，经综合研判与审慎评 估，公司决定全面启动 PMB 石油化工项目二期项目（简称"文莱炼化二期项目"）建设，文莱炼化二期项目 的设计产能优化调整为 1200 万吨/年，主要生产柴油、PX、苯、聚丙烯以及其他附加值较高的成品油及化工 产品，力争于 2028 年年底建成。文莱炼化二期项目建成后，文莱炼厂合计产能将达到 2000 万吨/年。 2）2025 年 12 月 1 日，公司发布关于控股股东及其一致行动人增持 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 东南亚成品油供需缺口持续扩大，文莱炼化项目有望持续受益 根据国际货币基金组织2025 年4月的报告，2025年东盟地区GDP维持4.5%增速，其中2025年印度尼西亚 GDP 增速预计达到5.1%，菲律宾、越南GDP增速预计达到 6.1%，大幅高于全球平均水平，经济预期的良 好态势或将进一步带动炼化产品需求的增长。相较国内成品油供需宽松状态，东南亚成品油市场存在较大 缺口。根据Platts 数据，2020-2023 年期间，受公共卫生事件和能源结构转型的影响，东南亚和澳洲地区已 有超过3,000 万吨的炼能退出市场。随着产能的持续出清，预计到2026年，东南亚成品油供需缺口将继续 扩大至 6,800 万吨。由于东南亚各国未来新增炼化产能投放有限，且东南亚本身存在成品油缺口，预计未 来供需将持续偏紧，文莱炼化项目有望持续受益。 风险提示： 全球经济复苏不及预期，国际原油价格波动，项目建设进度不及预期。 事件： 公司发布《关于全面启动文莱炼化二期项目建设的进展公告》，公司决定全面启动PMB石油化工项目二期 项目（以下简称"文莱炼化二期项目"）建设，并力争于2028年年底建 ...

公告显示，恒逸石化已于近日取得了文莱达鲁萨兰国政府出具的企业税收优惠相关证书批文、文莱伊斯兰银行出具的融资贷款意向函及恒逸文莱公司股东 方达迈控股有限公司出具的股东贷款承诺函，贷款资金将用于文莱炼化二期项目的投资建设。 文莱炼化二期项目主要包括"炼油、芳烃、乙烯、聚酯"四部分，四大关联产业链条高度一体化。 二期项目设计产能调整为1200万吨/年，主要生产柴油、 PX、苯、聚丙烯以及其他附加值较高的成品油及化工产品。 项目建成后，文莱炼厂合计产能将达到2000万吨/年。目前文莱现场已完成了场地初勘及二期 项目场地吹砂回填工作。 恒逸石化文莱炼化项目具备多重竞争优势。 【DT新材料】 获悉，1月5日， 恒逸石化 发布公告， 决定全面启动PMB石油化工项目二期项目（即文莱炼化二期项目）建设，并力争于2028年年底建 成。 首先是区位优势。 公司原油采购便利，无需原油进口配额，靠近马六甲海峡，原油运输距离较国内缩短， 有效降低物流成本，文莱也可直接供应部分原 油。此外，炼厂地处东南亚，销售市场广阔，部分成品油在文莱就地销售，剩余部分在东南亚、澳洲等地销售。 其次是税收优势。文莱项目位于东盟自由贸易区，进出口免关税；1 ...

中证报中证网讯（记者 齐金钊）日前，恒逸石化（000703）发布公告，为深化落实企业发展战略布 局，积极响应当地政策导向与合作意愿，统筹考虑市场环境、资源禀赋、政策支持等各项有利因素，经 综合研判与审慎评估，决定全面启动PMB石油化工项目二期项目（即文莱炼化二期项目）建设，并力 争于2028年年底建成。 公告显示，恒逸石化已于近日取得了文莱政府出具的企业税收优惠相关证书批文、当地银行出具的融资 贷款意向函及恒逸文莱公司股东方达迈控股有限公司出具的股东贷款承诺函，贷款资金将用于文莱炼化 二期项目的投资建设。此外，文莱炼化二期项目的设计产能优化调整为1200万吨/年，主要生产柴油、 PX、苯、聚丙烯以及其他附加值较高的成品油及化工产品。项目建成后，文莱炼厂合计产能将达到 2000万吨/年。 恒逸石化表示，项目建成后，将与一期项目形成较好的产业协同效应，有利于公司进一步提高海外市场 占有率，强化产业链一体化和规模化优势；有助于降低产品生产成本，保证原料供应的稳定性；有利于 提高高附加值产品的占比，进一步优化产品结构，满足客户多样化的市场需求，提高公司的市场竞争 力，提升整体抗风险能力。 从供需格局来看，东南亚地区成 ...

2026 年 1 月 6 日 公司研究 全面启动文莱炼化二期项目，看好公司未来成长性 ——恒逸石化（000703.SZ）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于全面启动文莱炼化二期项目建设的进展公告》，公司决定 全面启动 PMB 石油化工项目二期项目（以下简称"文莱炼化二期项目"）建设， 并力争于 2028 年年底建成。 点评： 全面启动文莱炼化二期项目，看好公司未来成长性：公司下属子公司恒逸实业（文 莱）有限公司已签订《二期实施协议》，并于近日取得了文莱达鲁萨兰国政府出 具的企业税收优惠相关证书批文、文莱伊斯兰银行出具的融资贷款意向函及恒逸 文莱公司股东方达迈控股有限公司出具的股东贷款承诺函，贷款资金将用于文莱 炼化二期项目的投资建设。文莱炼化二期项目的设计产能优化调整为 1,200 万吨 /年，主要生产柴油、PX、苯、聚丙烯以及其他附加值较高的成品油及化工产品。 文莱炼化二期项目建成后，文莱炼厂合计产能将达到 2000 万吨/年。公司决定 全面启动文莱炼化二期项目建设，并力争于 2028 年年底建成，项目建成后，将 与一期项目形成较好的产业协同效应，有利于公司进一步提高海外市场占有率， 强化产业链一体化和规模 ...

2026 年 01 月 06 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 仲逸涵 S0350525070003 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 文莱炼化二期项目全面启动，控股股东增持彰显 长期发展信心 ——恒逸石化（000703）公司点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2026/01/05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 恒逸石化 | 23.8% | 58.3% | 74.1% | | 沪深 300 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 25.0% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/05 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.40 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 5.45-10.98 | | 总市值（百万） | 37,467.27 | | 流通市值（百万） | ...

1月5日，恒逸石化（000703）公告，为深化落实企业发展战略布局，积极响应文莱达鲁萨兰国政府的政 策导向与合作意愿，统筹考虑市场环境、资源禀赋、政策支持等各项有利因素，经综合研判与审慎评 估，决定全面启动PMB石油化工项目二期项目（即文莱炼化二期项目）建设，并力争于2028年年底建 成。 公告显示，恒逸石化已于近日取得了文莱达鲁萨兰国政府出具的企业税收优惠相关证书批文、文莱伊斯 兰银行出具的融资贷款意向函及恒逸文莱公司股东方达迈控股有限公司出具的股东贷款承诺函，贷款资 金将用于文莱炼化二期项目的投资建设。 从供需格局来看，东南亚地区成品油供需格局持续偏紧。需求方面，由于东南亚地区的GDP增速大幅高 于全球平均水平，当地炼化产品需求持续旺盛。而老旧产能出清导致供给端持续收缩，且炼化企业扩产 意愿低迷，未来新增产能有限。根据IEA预测，预计到2026年，东南亚成品油供需缺口将继续扩大至 6800万吨，这为文莱炼化项目提供了广阔的市场空间和历史性机遇。 此外，恒逸石化同步公告，由于公司A股股价已高于原定增持价格上限，基于对公司未来持续发展的信 心及对公司长期投资价值的认可，同时为提振投资者信心，切实维护投资者利益 ...

人民财讯1月5日电，恒逸石化（000703）1月5日公告，公司决定全面启动PMB石油化工项目二期项目 (简称"文莱炼化二期项目")建设，并力争于2028年年底建成。文莱炼化二期项目的设计产能优化调整为 1200万吨/年，主要生产柴油、PX、苯、聚丙烯以及其他附加值较高的成品油及化工产品。文莱炼化二 期项目建成后，文莱炼厂合计产能将达到2000万吨/年。 ...

中化新网讯 2025年12月29日，波兰石油天然气集团(波国油)与森索斯集团签署协议，全资收购负责建设 新丁二烯萃取装置的S54公司。该装置建成后将并入波国油普洛克生产基地，完善集团石化产业链条， 交易估值约6.92亿兹罗提。 波国油首席执行官伊雷纽什·法法拉表示，此次交易解决了烯烃Ⅲ项目及丁二烯装置投资遗留问题，标 志着双方合作迈入新阶段。波国油通过该方案重获装置完全控制权，为"新化工计划"推进扫清障碍，也 为双方透明共赢的长期合作奠定基础。 据悉，S54公司承建的丁二烯萃取装置将加工全部C4馏分，产出抽余油供下游石化环节使用。双方同步 签署多项协议及合同修订案，全面规范法律与商业合作关系。合作范围拓展至捷克市场，将克拉卢比丁 二烯合资企业及相关原料合同期限从2049年提前至2038年，并延长两年乙烯、苯产品的捷克市场承购 期。 此次收购源于数年前普洛克石化扩张计划，原项目曾独立于波国油管控体系。本次交易进一步强化了项 目安全性与运营灵活性，助力集团优化单体生产设施建设及环氧乙烷、乙二醇等产品的产能布局。 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].