2026 年 02 月 23 日 公司点评 增持/维持 建发股份(600153) 目标价: 昨收盘:9.28 ■ 事件 2026 年 1 月，建发股份发布业绩预告。预计 2025 年度实现归母净 利润为-100 亿元至-52 亿元。2024 年全年归母净利润为 29.5 亿。 ■ 点评 经公司初步测算披露，2025 年度实现营业收入 6,736 亿元到 6,936 亿元之间。其中三个子板块，拆分情况如下： >>供应链板块，营收约 5200 亿元，利润盈利约+33 亿； 建发股份，2025 业绩预告点评，供应链盈利稳，地产亏损减值 ◼ 走势比较 总股本/流通(亿股) 29/29 总市值/流通(亿元) 269.08/269.08 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 11.71/8.68 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 >>房地产板块：营收约 1570 亿元，同比 2024 年下降约-15%，主要 系子公司建发房产和联发集团因交付项目减少导致结转收入减少利润减 少；利润约-65 亿至-53 亿元，主要系 ...

Core Insights - Chengdu has undergone a significant transformation from "building parks within cities" to "building cities within parks," leading to innovations in urban form, development paths, and governance systems [2] Group 1: Urban Transformation - Chengdu has over 1,500 parks, with air quality improving, as evidenced by 242 days of good air quality recorded this year, an increase of 15 days compared to the previous year [4][5] - The number of days residents can view snow-capped mountains has reached 70 days this year, surpassing last year's record of 62 days [3] Group 2: Lifestyle Changes - The transformation in urban ecology has led to a fundamental shift in lifestyle, with residents engaging more in outdoor activities, such as hiking and cycling along the Tianfu Greenway, which has exceeded 9,000 kilometers in total length [4][6] - The concept of "Work-life Balance" is becoming increasingly attractive, drawing talent from major cities to Chengdu, as the city offers a conducive environment for both work and leisure [7][9] Group 3: Economic Impact - Parks are driving new commercial models, with businesses like Fusenmei choosing locations near parks to enhance customer experience and sales, reflecting a shift towards immersive shopping experiences [8][9] - The integration of parks into urban planning is seen as a catalyst for high-quality urban development, with the goal of completing the park city demonstration zone by 2035 [8][10] Group 4: Governance Innovations - Chengdu's park city initiative includes modern governance frameworks, such as the "river chief" and "lake chief" systems, which enhance environmental management [10][11] - Collaborative governance among Chengdu and surrounding cities aims to optimize ecological spaces and improve air and water quality through joint regulations and initiatives [11][12]

Core Perspective - Chengdu has undergone a profound transformation from "building parks within cities" to "building cities within parks," reshaping its urban form and achieving comprehensive innovation in concepts, development paths, and governance systems [3] Group 1: Urban Development and Environmental Improvement - Chengdu has over 1,500 parks, with air quality improving year by year, leading to a daily scene of citizens strolling in parks [6][12] - The number of days citizens can view snow-capped mountains has reached 70 in 2025, surpassing the previous year's record of 62 days, indicating significant ecological improvement [4] - The city has achieved 242 days of good air quality in 2025, an increase of 15 days compared to the previous year, with a good air quality rate rising by 5.4 percentage points [6] Group 2: Lifestyle Changes and Community Engagement - The transformation in Chengdu's ecological environment has led to a fundamental change in lifestyle, with citizens increasingly engaging in outdoor activities such as hiking and cycling [7][9] - The concept of "work-life balance" is becoming more appealing, attracting talent from major cities to Chengdu due to its abundant parks and improved living conditions [12][11] Group 3: Economic and Commercial Implications - Parks are driving new commercial forms, with businesses like furniture stores strategically locating near parks to enhance customer experience and sales [11] - The "park commercial" model is redefining shopping logic, with 70% of consumers preferring this immersive shopping experience [11] Group 4: Governance and Systemic Innovation - Chengdu's park city initiative includes modern governance systems, such as the "river chief" and "lake chief" systems, enhancing environmental management [16][17] - Collaborative governance among Chengdu and surrounding cities is promoting ecological and economic integration, reflecting a shift towards sustainable urban development [17]