Core Insights - The report highlights the structural upgrade of China's new consumption market driven by demographic changes, income levels, policy guidance, and technological innovation, transitioning from scale expansion to structural adaptation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - The new consumption market is characterized by three core tracks: emotional economy, quality of life, and smart technology, reflecting profound changes in consumption logic and market structure [2][3]. - The emotional economy focuses on fulfilling emotional needs, with market size expected to reach 23,077.7 billion yuan by 2024 and double by 2029 [2]. - The quality of life track emphasizes health, comfort, and spiritual satisfaction, with the silver economy shifting from "elderly care" to "enjoying old age" [2][3]. - The smart technology track leverages AI and big data, with applications in AI terminals, service robots, and smart connected vehicles, becoming a key engine for consumption upgrade [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - Five major trends are anticipated for 2026: the shift from population dividends to value dividends in lower-tier markets, the integration of "AI+" services for personalized living, the acceleration of virtual and physical integration, sustainable consumption throughout the supply chain, and the globalization of brand ecosystems [3][9]. - Consumer motivations are evolving from functional satisfaction to emotional resonance and value recognition, with a dual decision-making logic of "extreme practicality" and "emotional premium" [2][9]. - The market structure is becoming more layered, with vertical communities emerging as the core soil for brand growth [2][9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Context - The transition from "scale expansion" to "structural adaptation" is marked by a new policy framework aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting consumption's contribution to economic growth [17][19]. - The government has set quantitative targets for optimizing supply structures, including three trillion-level fields and ten hundred-billion-level hotspots, to foster a healthy interaction between supply and demand [18][19].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption market has a rotation and rebound configuration opportunity, driven by three main logics: fundamental, financial, and style rotation [9][10][12] - The fundamental aspect indicates that under the backdrop of US-China trade friction, there is a strong expectation for policies to boost domestic demand, which catalyzes the consumption style market [9][10] - Financially, global capital reallocation and valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks are noted, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a resonance in consumer sectors [10][12] Group 2 - The report discusses structural changes in the Chinese consumption market driven by demographic shifts and weakening consumer confidence, with the middle-income group expanding and the "Z generation" becoming the main consumer force [28][29] - It emphasizes that the economic transformation and declining real estate cycle have led to a cautious consumer sentiment, affecting spending behavior [38][40] Group 3 - The report identifies three key trends in new consumption: "emotional consumption," "value-for-money consumption," and "service and experience consumption," each with distinct growth drivers and investment opportunities [48][59][68] - "Emotional consumption" is characterized by high margins and resilience to economic cycles, with significant growth in IP economy and pet economy sectors [48][51] - "Value-for-money consumption" is driven by rational consumption tendencies and supply chain optimization, leading to the rise of discount retail and bulk snack industries [59][62] Group 4 - The report notes that the service and experience consumption sector is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in outdoor sports, as GDP per capita surpasses 10,000 USD, influenced by the "single economy" and changing consumption preferences [68][71] - It highlights that outdoor apparel and footwear sales are projected to see significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 87.3% expected in 2024 [68][71]

Group 1 - The rise of outdoor economy is driven by a growing demand from younger generations, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, who prefer experiential travel over traditional sightseeing [1][2] - By early April 2025, the number of participants in outdoor sports in China is expected to exceed 400 million, with online consumption in outdoor sports projected to reach approximately 300 billion yuan in 2024, marking a nearly 40% increase [1] - The outdoor economy encompasses a wide range of products, from professional climbing gear to everyday outdoor apparel, catering to diverse consumer needs [1] Group 2 - Henan province boasts unique geographical advantages and rich natural resources, with various outdoor scenes such as health trails and forest camps, contributing to a robust outdoor market [2] - The outdoor products industry in Henan has seen significant growth, with 303 companies and 15 specialized parks, potentially generating a market worth billions [2] - To ensure sustainable growth in the outdoor economy, there is a need for improved service quality, diversified camping options, and enhanced market regulation to prevent chaotic industry expansion [2]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3472.32, with a slight increase of 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% to 10508.76 [3][8] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion, an increase of 121 billion compared to the previous trading day [8] Macro News Summary - The People's Bank of China is promoting the digital RMB innovation in relevant free trade zones [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, indicating potential recovery for the sector [6] Industry Dynamics - The outdoor economy is emerging as a new consumption trend, with related stocks such as Zhejiang Nature and Explorer [6] - The establishment of a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy by the Civil Aviation Administration of China [6] Company Focus - Zhongzhu Yejitu Group reported a net profit of 560 million to 650 million for the first half of 2025, an increase of 50.97% to 75.23% year-on-year [7] - Zhangyue Technology achieved a breakthrough in overseas short drama business, with nearly 200,000 new users on the iDrama platform [7] - Chip Dynamics reported a net profit between 138 million and 169 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 144.46% to 199.37% [7] Market Review and Outlook - The market experienced fluctuations with a peak near 3500 points, but closed lower due to profit-taking [8] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be crucial for excess returns, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous resources, midstream manufacturing, consumer services, and TMT [8] - New quantitative regulations are being implemented, indicating potential risks for previously high-flying small-cap stocks [8]

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]