2025年，中国企业出海 百舸争流 前行的货轮 满载中国企业出海的故事 一起"开箱" 开启出海体验 ↓↓↓ 01 硬核制造出海 中国「新能源汽车」 一路疾驰 中国「新能源装备」 注入澎湃绿电动能 中国「工业机器人」 走进全球生产车间 中国「家用电器」 卖爆全球 02 生物医药出海 中国「创新药」 从"跟跑"到"领跑" 03未来产业出海 中国「人工智能、人形机器人」 走向世界 中国「商业航天」 逐梦苍穹 中国「低空经济」 领飞全球 04 消费与服务出海 中国「智能家居」 融入海外家庭 中国「IP潮玩」 展现中华文化魅力 2025年，中国出海正在翻开新的一页 我们带着技术而去，携着共识而归 带着品牌而去，留下信任而归 2026，新征程已启 中国出海，未来可期！ 数据来源：海关总署、国家药监局、IDC数据、未来智库及公开报道。 *画面采用AI技术辅助制作。 策划出品｜经济政声工作室《经济有数》栏目 21创意工作室 总统筹｜陈晨星 执行统筹｜林虹 编辑｜包芳鸣 林青云 视频｜白宇航 谢和洋 实习生胡梓颖 设计｜刘妍妍 文案｜程迪 05 金融资本市场出海 中国「金融资本市场」 高光尽显 中国「跨境电商」 让"中国好物" ...

2025年，中国企业出海 百舸争流 前行的货轮 满载中国企业出海的故事 一起"开箱" 开启出海体验 ↓↓↓ 01 硬核制造出海 中国「新能源汽车」 一路疾驰 中国「新能源装备」 注入澎湃绿电动能 中国「家用电器」 卖爆全球 中国「工业机器人」 走进全球生产车间 02 生物医药出海 中国「创新药」 从"跟跑"到"领跑" 03未来产业出海 中国「人工智能、人形机器人」 走向世界 中国「商业航天」 逐梦苍穹 中国「低空经济」 领飞全球 中国「IP潮玩」 展现中华文化魅力 中国「跨境电商」 让"中国好物"走进千家万户 05 金融资本市场出海 中国「金融资本市场」 高光尽显 04 消费与服务出海 中国「智能家居」 融入海外家庭 2025年，中国出海正在翻开新的一页 我们带着技术而去，携着共识而归 带着品牌而去，留下信任而归 2026，新征程已启 中国出海，未来可期！ 数据来源：海关总署、国家药监局、IDC数据、未来智库及公开报道。 *画面采用AI技术辅助制作。 策划出品｜经济政声工作室《经济有数》栏目 21创意工作室 总统筹｜陈晨星 执行统筹｜林虹 编辑｜包芳鸣 林青云 视频｜白宇航 谢和洋 实习生胡梓颖 设计｜刘妍妍 ...

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 23 日 扩内需提消费下关注个护、潮玩、 宠物等赛道；关注永艺股份报告 看好 —— 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示：1）内需消费：在扩大内需、提振消费的背景下，关注结构性消费机会，如国 货崛起的个护、相对高景气的宠物用品、悦己消费催化的 IP 潮玩 ...

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, product and channel innovation will be crucial for the growth of apparel brands, despite a stable overall industry growth. The differentiation in offline channel traffic and oversupply in the industry will necessitate brands to focus on product innovation and effective channel operations to maintain market position [3][6]. Group 1: Apparel Industry Trends - The apparel industry is expected to maintain stable demand in 2026, with innovation in operational models and products being the main growth drivers [6]. - The offline shopping center traffic is increasingly polarized, with top-tier shopping districts attracting significant customer flow, making them ideal for brands to showcase their image [8]. - The demand for functional apparel remains strong, particularly in the outdoor segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.2% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing the overall apparel market [8]. Group 2: Jewelry Industry Insights - Jewelry sales are likely to continue being affected by high gold prices, with brands that emphasize product uniqueness expected to outperform the industry [12]. - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in sales baselines, and brands are enhancing their competitiveness through design innovation and optimizing channel images [12]. Group 3: OEM Manufacturers and Market Dynamics - Product innovation is identified as the primary driver for OEM manufacturers to gain market share, especially as demand for differentiated products increases [4][15]. - The textile manufacturing sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, recovering from profit margin lows caused by capacity expansion in 2025 [14]. - Manufacturers with technological advantages are expected to secure more orders by providing differentiated products to leading international brands [15].

Core Viewpoint - The media sector has shown a notable performance this week, ranking 7th among all sectors in terms of price changes, with a 4.20% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 but underperforming the ChiNext Index [3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The media industry increased by 4.20% during the week of October 20-24, 2023, outperforming the CSI 300's 3.24% but underperforming the ChiNext Index's 8.05% [3]. - The top gainers in the media sector included Rongxin Culture, Youzu Interactive, Haikan Co., and Jiayun Technology, while the biggest losers were Vision China, Tianxiaxiu, Xinghui Entertainment, and Gehua Cable [3]. Group 2: Key Events and Innovations - Significant events include the launch of OpenAI and Oracle's $15 billion Lighthouse Park, expected to be completed by 2028 [3]. - The introduction of the MoGA long video generation model by the University of Science and Technology of China and ByteDance, capable of producing high-quality videos with a resolution of 480p at 24 frames per second [3]. - ByteDance's Seed team has launched the 3D generation model Seed3D1.0, which can create high-quality simulation-level 3D models from a single image [3]. - Bilibili's "Escape from Duckkov" achieved over one million sales in its first week [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, IP toys, and the potential for policy shifts in the film industry, recommending stocks such as Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Gigabit [5]. - For IP toys, Pop Mart is highlighted as a key recommendation [5]. - The media sector is advised to monitor potential economic recovery, with a focus on companies like Focus Media [5]. - The shift in content policies and AI application opportunities are emphasized, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content providers such as Light Media and Huace Film [5].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3800 points, and most institutions are optimistic about the market outlook for Q4 [1][2] - Analysts expect a structural recovery in A-share earnings, driven by resilient export growth, manufacturing investment improvements, and seasonal consumption increases [2][3] - The market is anticipated to experience a "slow bull" trend, with a balanced style shift between growth and value stocks [2][4] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly in optical communication and semiconductors, has shown strong performance, while cyclical and consumer stocks have lagged [4] - Historical data suggests a style rotation in Q4, with cyclical stocks likely to rebound and technology stocks diversifying beyond just hardware [4][5] - Key sectors to focus on in Q4 include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, pharmaceuticals, military, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [4][5] Group 3 - Financial analysts predict increased allocation to equity assets by residents in a low-interest-rate environment, with a current equity and fund allocation of 15% among Chinese residents, indicating room for growth [3] - Suggested investment themes for Q4 include precious and industrial metals, renewable energy, AI hardware and applications, and consumer sectors such as pet economy and beauty products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a period of fluctuation as the third quarter concludes, with brokerages maintaining a relatively positive outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the market trend is not yet over [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with major indices experiencing divergence; the Shanghai Composite Index remains in a high-level fluctuation while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices continue to rise [2]. - A structural recovery in A-share earnings is anticipated, driven by policy expectations, macro and micro liquidity improvements, and a resilient export growth forecast [2]. Policy Impact - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China, with a shift in market focus towards 2026 economic and policy expectations [3]. - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation towards equity assets by residents, contributing to market growth [3]. Market Style - The market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [4]. - Historical data suggests that value styles have a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth styles in the fourth quarter since 2013 [4]. Investment Focus - The primary investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors, particularly AI, alongside cyclical products and sectors with improving economic conditions [5][6]. - Specific sectors identified for potential growth include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military, financial IT, and various consumer goods [6]. Sector Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, AI hardware and applications, and consumer services, with particular attention to emerging trends in pet economy, IP toys, and beauty products [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the IP toy sector, paper industry, and home furnishing sector, highlighting specific companies to watch [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The IP toy market continues to thrive, with Sanrio's FY26Q1 performance exceeding expectations, driven by strong IP character sales, particularly Hello Kitty, across various regions [2][4]. - The paper industry is entering a peak demand season in Q3, with expectations for price stabilization and potential upward movement due to supply-side improvements [14][15]. - The home furnishing sector is poised for recovery as Beijing relaxes housing purchase restrictions, which may enhance valuation and stimulate demand [17][19]. Summary by Sections 1. IP Toy Sector - Sanrio's FY26Q1 revenue reached 431 billion JPY, a 49% year-on-year increase, with operating profit up 88% and net profit up 38%, attributed to strong IP character performance [2][4]. - Companies such as Morning Glory, Chuangyuan, Chaohongji, Guobo, and Blucor are highlighted for their innovative IP collaborations and product launches [2][4][6][9][10]. 2. Paper Industry - The report notes that Q3 demand is gradually increasing, with expectations for paper prices to stabilize and potentially rise, supported by reduced production from overseas suppliers [14][15]. - Key companies to monitor include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Bohui Paper, as they are positioned to benefit from the improving supply-demand dynamics [14][15]. 3. Home Furnishing Sector - The easing of purchase restrictions in Beijing is expected to boost the home furnishing sector, with companies like Sophia, Oppein, Gujia, and others identified as having strong dividend safety margins [17][19][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector, driven by improved consumer confidence and demand from the secondary housing market [19][23].