证券研究报告 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年3月2日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 目录 | Part1 复盘：光储平价+缺电/电价上涨+政策补贴刺激需求 | | --- | | Part2 澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发 | | Part3 欧洲：乌/英/荷为重要增量市场，德国有望复苏 | | Part4 美国：TPO对冲ITC补贴取消，中长期VPP辅助消纳 | | Part5 产业：户储龙头竞争好于预期，出货进入新增长期 | | Part6 投资建议和风险提示 | 2 摘要： 澳洲欧洲引领新增长，多维布局龙头重拾成长 ——海外户储专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn ◆ 回顾全球户储各爆发区域，爆发驱动因素在于：1）光储价格下行，全球实现光储平价；2）缺电或电价上涨推动刚需； 3）补贴等政策催化。 ◆ 澳/英/乌/荷多国政策驱动户储爆发，行业持续增长可期：1）澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发。澳洲 户光渗透率/存量户光配储率分别为39%/10%，澳洲政府25H1推出23亿澳元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the diversification of the global residential energy storage market by 2025, with steady growth in demand from Europe and North America, and a significant explosion of demand in emerging markets. The market drivers have evolved from being primarily influenced by the energy crisis and high price arbitrage to a multi-faceted approach involving electricity prices, policies, and energy structure adjustments [2][5]. - By 2025, global residential energy storage system shipments are expected to reach 40 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.88%. By 2030, this figure is projected to increase to 180 GWh [5][6]. - The global wholesale electricity prices will enter a "differentiated equilibrium" phase by 2025, influenced by the competition between renewable energy transition and fossil fuel costs. This will lead to varying price fluctuations across different regions [3][5]. Group 2 - The distribution of the residential energy storage market in 2025 will show a dual-driven pattern, with mature markets maintaining their share and emerging markets experiencing rapid growth. Europe will continue to dominate the market, accounting for nearly half of the global share, with Germany leading at 32% [8][10]. - The trend towards larger residential energy storage systems is evident, with 10-20 kWh systems becoming the global mainstream, driven by different regional demands. In 2025, systems in the 10-20 kWh range will account for 43% of the market [11][13]. - The competitive landscape of the residential energy storage market will feature a "dual leader" scenario, with Tesla and Huawei leading the market. Tesla's Powerwall 3 has become a benchmark product, capturing nearly 25% of the global market [13][16]. Group 3 - In the battery market for residential energy storage, Chinese companies dominate, with a "one strong, two strong" competitive landscape. The top three companies hold a combined market share of 65.5% [17][19]. - By 2026, the global residential energy storage market is expected to show clear differentiation, with mature markets slowing down and emerging markets entering a phase of rapid growth. The competition structure will solidify into three tiers [20][22]. - The product landscape will see a shift towards larger capacity systems (20-30 kWh) and modular designs, enhancing installation convenience and space utilization. The integration of solar, storage, and charging functionalities will become more prevalent [21][22].

【浙商电新】固德威：澳洲户储需求火爆，在国内探索AI+能源应用 #澳洲户储补贴加码；公司是澳洲户储核心受益标的。 澳大利亚推出72亿澳元户用电池补贴计划，引爆户储需求。 5月1日后，14kWh以下才可拿到全额补贴，补贴按照功率段阶梯式递减。 我们认为5月1日前会存在大容量户储系统抢装，且退税减少也可能对备货需求产生刺激。 固德威在澳洲市场深耕多年，20 【浙商电新】固德威：澳洲户储需求火爆，在国内探索AI+能源应用 #澳洲户储补贴加码；公司是澳洲户储核心受益标的。 澳大利亚推出72亿澳元户用电池补贴计划，引爆户储需求。 5月1日后，14kWh以下才可拿到全额补贴，补贴按照功率段阶梯式递减。 我们认为5月1日前会存在大容量户储系统抢装，且退税减少也可能对备货需求产生刺激。 固德威在澳洲市场深耕多年，2015年设立澳大利亚子公司，在澳洲市占率居于前列，澳洲市场需求向上弹性极 大。 #英国发布150亿英镑热泵户储补贴计划；公司热泵和户储产品有望受益。 英国政府发布《温暖家园计划》（WHP），将在2026-2030年投入150亿英镑的公共资金，通过补贴和低息贷款， 用于高达500万户家庭的升级，使家庭安装热泵、光伏和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - The UK has launched the "Warm Homes Plan," committing £15 billion in public funds to retrofit 5 million homes and assist 1 million families in energy poverty by 2030. This plan is expected to significantly boost demand for residential solar storage and heat pumps [1]. - The plan allocates £2.7 billion for subsidies and £2 billion for low-interest loans to support the purchase of residential solar storage and heat pump systems, alongside £5 billion for assistance to low-income households and £1 billion for heating network investments [1]. - The anticipated growth in the residential solar storage and heat pump sectors is substantial, with projections of 3 million new solar installations and over 450,000 heat pumps installed annually from 2026 to 2030 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Residential Solar PV - By the end of 2025, the UK is expected to have a cumulative installation of 1.6 million residential solar PV systems, with less than 200,000 new installations in 2025. The "Warm Homes Plan" aims for an additional 3 million installations from 2026 to 2030, translating to an annual increase of 600,000 installations [2]. Residential Energy Storage - In 2025, the UK is projected to add 0.7 GWh of residential energy storage, equivalent to 70,000 units based on a 10 kWh per unit calculation. If 600,000 new solar PV systems are installed annually, with a storage integration rate of 50%, this would result in 300,000 new storage units each year, potentially increasing to 600,000 units if the integration rate reaches 100% [2]. Heat Pumps - The report indicates that approximately 60,000 heat pumps will be installed in 2024. The "Warm Homes Plan" targets an average annual installation of over 450,000 heat pumps from 2026 to 2030, representing a significant increase compared to 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the European and Australian residential storage markets, such as Airo Energy, GoodWe, Jinlang Technology, and Pylontech. It also highlights the potential for valuation increases in the residential storage sector and recommends low-valuation leading companies like Deye Technology [3]. Additionally, it advises attention to companies in the heat pump sector, such as Rujing Technology, and battery cell manufacturers like Penghui Energy, which may see improved profitability with unexpected demand increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global home energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted shipment of 27.8 GWh in 2024, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, and expected to reach 180 GWh by 2030, a growth of 547% compared to 2024 [2][33]. Global Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - Europe is the largest market for home energy storage, with a shipment of 13 GWh in 2024, but it faces a 10% decline due to falling electricity prices and reduced subsidies [4][27]. - The United States is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected shipment of 3.5 GWh in 2024, up 48% year-on-year, driven by tax incentives and rising electricity prices [7][29]. - Ukraine is emerging as the fastest-growing market, with a shipment of 2.5 GWh in 2024, expected to see a growth rate exceeding 300% [8][29]. - Japan's home storage market is also growing, with a forecasted shipment of 2 GWh in 2024, up 38% year-on-year, supported by substantial government subsidies [9][10]. - Australia is expected to ship 1.5 GWh in 2024, with a growth rate of over 20%, driven by federal and state subsidies [11][12]. - Africa's market is projected to reach 1.2 GWh in 2024, with South Africa leading and Nigeria emerging as a significant player [13][14]. Demand-Driven Core Factors - In Ukraine, over 60% of power plants have been damaged, leading to a surge in demand for home energy storage systems due to prolonged power outages and rising electricity prices [8][9]. - In Japan, the expiration of feed-in tariff contracts is driving households to adopt self-consumption models with storage systems [9][10]. - In Australia, federal subsidies are set to support over 1 million households by 2030, enhancing the economic viability of home storage systems [12][29]. Global Home Energy Storage Supply and Competitive Landscape - In 2024, China is expected to dominate the global market with a shipment of 21 GWh, accounting for 75% of total shipments, with major players including Huawei and BYD [16][29]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by significant players such as Huawei Digital Energy, BYD, and Tesla, with Huawei leading the market with a 21.6% share [29][33]. Policy Support for Home Energy Storage Industry - Various countries are implementing supportive policies for renewable energy and home storage systems, creating a favorable environment for industry growth [34][36]. - The European Union's "REPowerEU" plan aims to expand solar energy capacity, while the U.S. has extended tax credits for storage systems [17][34]. Emerging Market Growth - Regions like Southeast Asia, South Africa, and Ukraine are witnessing explosive demand for home storage systems due to unstable power grids and high electricity prices [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hekang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong operational performance and effective management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 4.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.06% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 71.1837 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 732.83% [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 251 million yuan, indicating healthy cash flow management [1]. Business Development - The company expanded its household photovoltaic EPC business from 15 to 22 provinces, with a cumulative grid-connected capacity exceeding 3GW as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - The company launched a new range of photovoltaic grid-connected inverters with power ratings between 20KW and 40KW, covering approximately 70% of the market application scenarios for household grid-connected inverters [2]. R&D and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on product research and market capability development in the household energy storage sector, with a robust order reserve situation supporting future growth [2]. - The company’s production base for energy storage in Anqing commenced operations on June 25, 2025, ensuring sufficient capacity for order fulfillment [2]. Industry Positioning - In the high-voltage frequency converter business, the company is leveraging national policies for equipment upgrades and domestic substitution, leading to a significant increase in project orders [3]. - The company signed a joint development agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation for a nuclear power intelligent high-voltage frequency conversion system [3]. - The company is actively exploring overseas markets in South America and Southeast Asia, focusing on industries such as HVAC, mining, and cement [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities predicts a significant growth inflection point for global household energy storage installations by 2025, with a projected CAGR of nearly 15% over the next three years, particularly highlighting opportunities in markets such as Australia and emerging regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] Summary by Region Europe - After a two-year period of market consolidation, inventory depletion is evident, and industry demand is returning to a stable growth trajectory [1] - The channel landscape is being reshaped, with leading solar storage distributors evolving into "light asset service providers" and "regional oligarchs," which is pressuring the supply structure to concentrate around major players [1] Australia - The penetration rates for household storage are approximately 7% for existing installations and 20% for new installations, significantly lower than Europe's corresponding rates of over 15% and 40%, indicating substantial room for growth [1] - The implementation of high-value household storage subsidy policies in 2025 is expected to reduce project payback periods to around five years, potentially igniting household storage demand with annual installations projected to increase by 3 to 6 times [1] - Chinese household storage suppliers hold a leading market share in Australia, and manufacturers with strategic positioning are likely to benefit significantly [1] Asia, Africa, and Latin America - Emerging markets are facing acute electricity shortages, creating urgent needs for power configuration and grid expansion [1] - Several countries are increasing policy support for household solar storage systems, driving continuous growth in installations, particularly in Southeast Asia and South Asia, where significant growth is anticipated [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the heat pump industry, which is part of the broader smart home sector, emphasizing the potential for domestic substitution in heat pumps and energy storage [1][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Heat Pump Technology**: Heat pumps operate by changing the temperature, state, and pressure of the working fluid to achieve heating or cooling. They are primarily used for heating, with significant energy efficiency, as one unit of electricity can extract three to five units of free heat from nature [2][5]. - **Market Growth**: The European heat pump market saw sales of 2.18 million units in 2023, with a growth rate of approximately 20%. The penetration rate in Europe is only 13%, indicating substantial growth potential [3][10]. - **Value Chain Structure**: The heat pump industry has a similar value chain to the air conditioning industry, comprising upstream components, midstream manufacturers, and downstream sales. The value chain is unevenly distributed, with upstream components accounting for over 30% of the terminal price [6][7]. - **Economic Considerations**: The heat pump industry is driven by energy security, climate safety, and economic factors. The use of heat pumps can reduce reliance on external energy sources and lower operational costs, making them economically advantageous despite higher initial investments [5][15]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The heat pump market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure in its value chain, where upstream core components hold significant value, while downstream installation and channels dominate the cost structure [7][8]. - **Export Challenges**: Chinese heat pump exports primarily rely on OEM and ODM models, with foreign companies controlling profits from core components and installation channels. This limits the profit margins for Chinese manufacturers [3][9]. - **Future Investment Opportunities**: Short-term investment opportunities are expected due to European energy policies. Upstream companies with smaller sizes and potential for domestic substitution are highlighted as promising, alongside strong downstream players [15]. - **Household Energy Storage Systems**: The development of household energy storage systems is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase of nearly 50GW in global household storage capacity by 2025. This sector is seen as a complementary market to heat pumps [16][17]. Conclusion - The heat pump industry presents significant growth opportunities driven by energy efficiency, climate policies, and economic advantages. The uneven value chain structure and export challenges highlight areas for potential investment and development within the sector.

Core Insights - Qingshan Holding Group, known as the "World Nickel King," is planning to establish a second listed company through its subsidiary, Maitian Energy, which has recently entered the IPO inquiry stage with an expected fundraising of approximately 1.662 billion yuan [1][6] - Maitian Energy, founded in 2019, is significantly backed by Qingshan, holding a 24.96% stake through Yongqing Technology, making it the second-largest shareholder [1][5] - The company has rapidly expanded its presence in the overseas market, with international sales accounting for over 95% of its main business revenue from 2022 to 2024 [5][12] Company Overview - Qingshan Holding is the largest stainless steel and nickel producer globally, with over 180,000 employees and a consistent presence in the Fortune Global 500 [2][3] - The founder, Xiang Guangda, is known for his resource-driven strategy, having successfully navigated the company through various market challenges by acquiring key resources [2][14] - Maitian Energy has quickly risen in the energy sector, particularly in the household energy storage market, achieving a global market share of 6% and 13% in Europe by 2023 [5][12] Market Dynamics - The European household energy storage market saw a significant surge in 2022, with new installations increasing by 118.2% to 12.0 GWh, driven by high electricity prices [5][12] - However, the market is facing challenges, with a projected decline in installation volumes and a price war expected in 2024 due to falling electricity prices and subsidy reductions [19][20] - Maitian's average sales price for storage inverters is expected to drop from 8,428.96 yuan in 2022 to 6,699.64 yuan in 2024, impacting its gross margin [19] Strategic Positioning - Maitian's growth is attributed to its strong backing from Qingshan, which has provided financial support and resources, allowing it to compete effectively in the market [13][20] - The company is diversifying its supply chain, moving beyond reliance on Qingshan's subsidiary, Ruipu Lanjun, for key components [20] - Maitian is also exploring opportunities in integrated solar and storage solutions, indicating a strategic shift to capture larger market segments [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth and strategic positioning of HeKang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in the green energy sector, particularly in energy management and storage solutions [1][2] - HeKang New Energy has achieved a revenue of 3.915 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 512.04%, with this revenue constituting 81.98% of its total operating income [1] - The company has successfully turned a profit due to the high growth of its photovoltaic EPC business, recovery in the profitability of its high-voltage inverter business, and effective cost management [1] Group 2 - Guotou Securities has initiated a "buy" rating for HeKang New Energy, citing the company's strong backing from Midea Group, which is expected to enhance its overseas business development [2] - The company is focusing on three main areas: high-voltage inverters, distributed photovoltaic EPC, and household energy storage, which are expected to benefit from Midea Group's comprehensive support [2] - HeKang New Energy's high-voltage inverter business is operating steadily, with a rich product matrix and orderly capacity expansion, while its new energy business is significantly scaling up [2]