证券研究报告 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年3月2日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 目录 | Part1 复盘：光储平价+缺电/电价上涨+政策补贴刺激需求 | | --- | | Part2 澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发 | | Part3 欧洲：乌/英/荷为重要增量市场，德国有望复苏 | | Part4 美国：TPO对冲ITC补贴取消，中长期VPP辅助消纳 | | Part5 产业：户储龙头竞争好于预期，出货进入新增长期 | | Part6 投资建议和风险提示 | 2 摘要： 澳洲欧洲引领新增长，多维布局龙头重拾成长 ——海外户储专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn ◆ 回顾全球户储各爆发区域，爆发驱动因素在于：1）光储价格下行，全球实现光储平价；2）缺电或电价上涨推动刚需； 3）补贴等政策催化。 ◆ 澳/英/乌/荷多国政策驱动户储爆发，行业持续增长可期：1）澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发。澳洲 户光渗透率/存量户光配储率分别为39%/10%，澳洲政府25H1推出23亿澳元 ...

格隆汇2月27日丨合康新能(300048.SZ)公布，拟向特定对象发行股票拟募集资金总额（含发行费用）不 超过16.5亿元，扣除发行费用后的募集资金净额全部投入高压变频器研发及产业化项目、光伏并网逆变 器研发及产业化项目、户用储能系统研发及产业化项目、分布式光伏标杆电站建设及研发项目、补充流 动资金。本次向特定对象发行股票的发行对象为美的集团。美的集团将以现金方式认购公司本次发行的 全部股票，美的集团已经与公司签署了《股份认购协议》。 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，合康新能2月27日晚间发布公告称，本次向特定对象发行股票相关事项已经公司第六届董 事会第二十八次会议审议通过，本次向特定对象发行股票的发行对象为美的集团。本次发行的股票数量 为募集资金总额除以本次发行股票的发行价格，即约2.88亿股（含本数），不超过本次发行前公司总股 本的30%。发行价格为5.73元/股。本次发行拟募集不超过约16.52亿元，募集资金用于以下用途：高压 变频器研发及产业化项目，总投资约4.39亿元，拟投入募集资金约4.39亿元；光伏并网逆变器研发及产 业化项目，总投资约4.37亿元，拟投入募集资金约4.37亿元；户用储能系统研发及产业化项目，总投资 约2.92亿元，拟投入募集资金约2.92亿元；分布式光伏标杆电站建设及研发项目，总投资约1.84亿元， 拟投入募集资金约1.84亿元；补充流动资金项目，总投资3亿元，拟投入募集资金3亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中美大反转，中国AI调用量首超美国，A股嗨了，多板块掀涨停潮！华尔 街知名分析师：中国算力路径颠覆传统认知 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to raise a total of up to 1,651.58 million yuan through a private placement of shares, including issuance costs [1] - The net proceeds from the fundraising will be fully invested in various projects, including high-voltage frequency converter R&D and industrialization, photovoltaic grid-connected inverter R&D and industrialization, household energy storage system R&D and industrialization, distributed photovoltaic benchmark power station construction and R&D projects, and to supplement working capital [1] - Before the fundraising proceeds are in place, the company may use self-raised funds to invest in the fundraising projects based on its operational status and business planning, and will replace these with the raised funds once they are available [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The offshore wind tendering in overseas markets remains robust, with significant capacity awarded in recent auctions, reflecting strong demand [6][11]. - Elon Musk announced a plan to establish 200GW of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within three years, which is expected to boost the solar industry significantly [6][11]. - The global household energy storage market is projected to grow nearly 50% in 2025, with key markets like Germany, the U.S., Australia, and Japan dominating the landscape [7][11]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - Recent overseas offshore wind tenders show high activity, with the UK awarding 8.4GW in its latest auction, marking the largest in Europe [11][26]. - The wind power index increased by 5.16% in the week of January 19-23, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.78 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM of approximately 29.34 times [12][11]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the offshore wind supply chain as demand continues to rise [11]. Solar Power - Elon Musk's announcement at the World Economic Forum regarding the 200GW solar capacity plan is expected to create significant market enthusiasm, particularly for suppliers in the solar equipment sector [6][11]. - The solar sector's current PE_TTM is around 51.85 times, with various indices showing substantial weekly gains [4][11]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen - The global household energy storage system shipment is expected to reach approximately 35GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 50% [7][11]. - The report recommends investments in domestic and international large-scale storage companies and highlights the potential for distributed storage in emerging markets [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on energy storage inverters and home energy storage systems, indicating a strategic shift towards renewable energy applications [1] Group 1: Business Focus - The company is concentrating on energy storage applications, particularly in energy storage inverters and home energy storage systems [1] - The energy storage-related business is experiencing rapid growth alongside the industrial control and new energy sectors [1] Group 2: Market Position - By the first half of 2025, the proportion of industrial control and new energy products in the company's portfolio has increased to 52.75% [1]

Group 1: ETF Market - The total market size of ETFs has decreased to 5.93 trillion yuan, down from 6.24 trillion yuan [1] - The scale of the CSI A500 ETF has dropped below 300 billion yuan, currently at 285.98 billion yuan, with 8 out of 40 ETFs having a scale of over 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Bridgewater Associates remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, projecting a 45% return for its onshore hedge fund in 2025, marking the best performance in five years [1] - The All Weather Plus fund of Bridgewater saw a 9.1% increase in Q4, with an annual return of 44.5%, compared to an 18% rise in the benchmark CSI 300 index [1] Group 3: Energy Storage Market - GGII forecasts that global household energy storage system shipments will reach approximately 35 GWh in 2025, representing a nearly 50% year-on-year growth [2] - The market concentration for household storage systems is significant, with Germany, the US, Australia, and Japan accounting for 57% of the total global installation [2] Group 4: Film Industry - China's film industry chain is projected to reach a value of 817.26 billion yuan in 2025, with a box office multiplier of approximately 1:15.77, ranking among the top globally [3] Group 5: Commercial Aerospace - In 2025, China's commercial aerospace sector is expected to complete 50 launches, accounting for 54% of the total national space launches, with 311 commercial satellites successfully placed into orbit [3] Group 6: Strategic Partnerships - Lianlong has signed a strategic framework agreement with Runyinglian to enhance the reliability and efficiency of the lubricating oil additive supply chain in China and the Asia-Pacific region [8] Group 7: Financial Performance Forecasts - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of 465 million to 500 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 471.55% to 514.57% [11] - Guanghui Energy expects a net profit of 1.32 billion to 1.47 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a decline of 50.03% to 55.13% year-on-year [12] - Jiajiayue forecasts a net profit of 198 million to 228 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 50.06% to 72.79% year-on-year [13] - Xianghe Industrial projects a net profit of 120 million to 148 million yuan for 2025, showing an increase of 59.17% to 96.31% year-on-year [14] - Baiao Intelligent expects a net profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 228.34% to 337.79% year-on-year [15] - Hekang New Energy anticipates a net profit of 50 million to 75 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 385.62% to 628.43% [16]

Group 1 - The global smart home energy storage solutions market is accelerating towards systemization and intelligence, with EcoFlow leading in global sales [1][4] - Smart home energy storage solutions integrate generation, storage, scheduling, and optimization of household energy through smart energy management technology [3] - Frost & Sullivan's report aims to analyze the global smart home energy storage solutions industry, exploring market size, characteristics, technological innovations, and driving factors behind industry development [3] Group 2 - EcoFlow has become a major provider of smart home energy storage solutions since its establishment in 2017, serving over 5 million users across more than 140 countries and holding over 1,200 patents [4] - EcoFlow's global leadership in the smart home energy storage market is attributed to its systematic advantages in ecological technology completeness, system intelligence capability, and global operations [4][6] - The company has developed a comprehensive energy ecosystem, providing tailored electricity solutions for various household scenarios, thus becoming a crucial foundation for home energy infrastructure [4] Group 3 - EcoFlow is enhancing its smart capabilities through its OASIS software platform, focusing on intelligent load management, peak shaving strategies, and other innovative features to help users manage household energy more efficiently [6] - The company has established localized operations and service teams in key regions such as North America, Europe, and Japan, allowing for differentiated services that cater to regional energy policies and user habits [6] - EcoFlow's commitment to "technology-driven + providing value to users" has positioned it as a global leader in smart home energy solutions, responding to increasing demands for energy independence, cost-effectiveness, and safety [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guoxia Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing the strength of China's energy storage technology sector and attracting significant capital market interest with a market capitalization of HKD 23.82 billion on its first trading day [1][3]. Company Overview - Guoxia Technology focuses on the "AI+" energy storage sector, providing renewable energy solutions and products since its establishment in Jiangsu in 2019. The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering large-scale, commercial, and residential energy storage [3][4]. - The company has developed two core technology platforms, Safe ESS and HANCHU iESS, integrating AI systems to create a unique "cloud-edge-end" architecture for intelligent energy management [3][4]. Market Position - According to a report by ZhiShi Consulting, Guoxia Technology ranks as the eighth largest energy storage system supplier in China by new installed capacity and is among the top ten suppliers in the residential energy storage sector, holding a 4% market share in both categories [4]. - The company has a strong domestic presence, with 79.9% of its revenue coming from the domestic market in 2024, while also establishing a significant international footprint in Europe and Africa [4]. Financial Performance - Guoxia Technology's revenue surged from CNY 142 million in 2022 to CNY 1.026 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 169%. In the first half of 2025, revenue reached CNY 691 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 663% [5]. - The company achieved a significant turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of CNY 5.575 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a net loss of CNY 25.59 million in the same period of 2024 [5]. IPO and Future Plans - In its IPO, Guoxia Technology issued 33.8529 million shares at HKD 20.1 per share, raising approximately HKD 606 million. The funds will be allocated to enhancing core technology research, expanding production capacity, and improving global service networks [6][8]. - The company aims to solidify its technological barriers in the "AI+" energy storage sector and drive high-quality development in the industry, transitioning from a focus on scale and cost to technology and ecosystem [8].

Core Viewpoint - Guoxia Technology, a provider of energy storage solutions, officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 16, raising approximately HKD 783 million through its IPO, with a strong debut performance [1][3]. IPO Details - The company issued 38.93 million H-shares at an offering price of HKD 20.1, representing 7.61% of total shares post-IPO, with a net fundraising amount of approximately HKD 701 million after expenses [3]. - On its first trading day, the stock opened at HKD 38, a 89% increase from the offering price, and closed at HKD 43.8, marking a 117.91% rise, leading to a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 22.42 billion [3]. Subscription and Investor Interest - The IPO was significantly oversubscribed, with the public offering portion receiving 1,890.73 times oversubscription and the international offering portion receiving 3.63 times [5]. - Three cornerstone investors participated in the offering, collectively subscribing for HKD 74.25 million, accounting for 9.49% of the total global offering [6]. Company Overview - Founded in 2019, Guoxia Technology focuses on AI-driven renewable energy solutions, employing a dual-brand strategy with "Guoxia Technology" for domestic markets and "HANCHUESS" for international markets [6]. - The company targets large-scale energy storage projects on the grid side domestically and household and commercial storage markets internationally, with products already in several mature overseas markets [6]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with revenues increasing from RMB 142 million in 2022 to RMB 1.026 billion in 2024, and annual profits rising from RMB 24.28 million to RMB 49.12 million [7]. - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached RMB 691 million, a 659% year-on-year increase, although profits decreased to RMB 5.58 million from RMB 25.59 million in the same period last year [7]. Shareholding Structure - The founding team maintains a strong controlling position, holding 54.08% of the shares, with key figures including Chairman Feng Lizheng, CEO Zhang Xi, and President Liu Ziye, all of whom are alumni of Jiangnan University [7]. Salary Information - The total compensation for key executives in the first half of 2025 included RMB 666,000 for Feng Lizheng and RMB 1.518 million for Zhang Xi [8]. Technological Advancements - Guoxia Technology is recognized as one of the first companies in the industry to achieve cloud integration of energy storage systems, pushing AI technology from cloud algorithms to physical entities, and aims to enhance its technology development and global market presence post-IPO [9].