作者丨崔文静 编辑丨张星 视频｜ 柳润瑛 11月28日，证监会就《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称《公告》）公开征求意见， 标志着我国公募REITs市场正式从基础设施领域 拓展至商业不动产领域，进入"双轮驱动"新阶段。 此次试点是落实资本市场新"国九条"、推动REITs市场高质量发展的关键举措。其核心在于打 通商业不动产的权益融资通道，为盘活存量资产、构建房地产发展新模式提供标准化金融解决 方案。 市场普遍视此举为水到渠成。历经近五年探索，基础设施REITs已上市77只产品，形成了较为 成熟的监管与运行框架，为商业不动产领域拓展奠定了坚实基础。当前，我国商业不动产存量 规模庞大，但缺乏高效退出渠道，试点推出精准回应了市场迫切的盘活需求。 支持构建房地产发展新模式被认为是其首要功能。 一位券商资深分析师表示，传统房地产高 杠杆、高周转的开发销售模式正在经历深刻转型，商业地产亟需找到一条依赖长期运营而非短 期销售的全新路径。REITs为此提供了标准化的退出渠道和持续的权益融资来源。它不仅能够 帮助企业优化资产负债表、降低杠杆风险，更将从根本上倒逼企业从"开发商"转向专 ...

Summary of REITs Market Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) market, highlighting its current market dynamics and performance across various segments [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The REITs market has shown significant volatility, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index dropping to 1,050 points, indicating weak market sentiment. The correlation between REITs and the bond market has increased, with a rolling 30-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.6-0.7, compared to a historical average of less than 0.2 [2][3]. 2. **Valuation Concerns**: Although REITs valuations have adjusted, they remain at a mid-to-high level. The previous valuation increase was primarily driven by market sentiment and liquidity rather than fundamental improvements, which raises concerns about potential valuation risks [1][2]. 3. **Segment Performance**: - **Stable Segments**: The rental housing and public utility sectors are stable but lack elasticity. - **Recovery Signs**: Consumer and highway sectors show signs of recovery, but further validation is needed. - **Under Pressure**: Industrial parks and logistics sectors remain under pressure with no clear turning point in sight [1][3]. 4. **Unlocking Pressure**: By the end of 2025, approximately 11 billion yuan of one-year allocation will be unlocked, potentially creating selling pressure. However, large transactions may smooth this impact, limiting effects on the secondary market [2][3]. 5. **Consumer REITs**: Benefiting from consumption policies and high-quality assets, consumer REITs have outperformed retail sales. However, macroeconomic recovery and traffic diversion effects on the highway sector need monitoring [1][2]. 6. **Institutional Investor Behavior**: High institutional investor participation may lead to short-term volatility due to behavioral consistency. There is a recommendation to enhance public investor education to diversify the holder structure and mitigate liquidity risks [1][15]. 7. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Industrial Parks**: Currently in a bottoming phase with significant competition, especially in second-tier cities. Investors are advised to focus on resilient projects with controllable regional competition and high tenant industry prosperity [5]. - **Logistics**: The sector remains under pressure, but a price-for-volume strategy has proven effective due to the scarcity of assets held by listed logistics REITs [6]. - **Rental Housing**: The sector's distribution amount remains stable, with some projects offsetting pressure through value-added services. The outlook for the second half of 2025 is positive, with attention to valuation adjustments during unlock periods [8]. - **Consumer Sector**: Supported by various consumption policies, consumer REITs have shown resilience, with many outperforming local retail sales. Projects with strong management capabilities and expansion potential are recommended for attention [9][11]. - **Highway Sector**: The sector has been significantly impacted by traffic diversion, with a focus on projects with better fundamentals and lower valuations recommended for monitoring [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Structure Changes**: Institutional investors accounted for an average of 97% of the market, with slight decreases in the rental housing and energy sectors. This indicates a growing recognition and participation of institutions in REITs assets [14]. - **Liquidity and Volatility**: Limited market liquidity may lead to short-term volatility driven by institutional behavior. Strengthening public investor education is suggested to enhance market stability [15]. - **Top Holders Analysis**: The concentration of top holders has slightly decreased, with a notable increase in participation from certain institutional types, indicating shifts in market dynamics [21]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the REITs market, highlighting both opportunities and risks across various segments.

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for Link REIT to HKD 49.8, indicating that the impact of interest rate cuts is expected to outweigh rental adjustments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 of FY2026, Link REIT's retail property portfolio sales decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly underperforming compared to the overall market growth of 0.4% in Hong Kong, primarily due to the influence of e-commerce free services on non-essential goods transactions [1] - Despite the sales decline, Link REIT maintained high occupancy rates for both retail and office properties in Q1 of FY2026 [1] Group 2: Rental and Dividend Forecasts - The latest forecast for rental adjustments indicates a negative low single-digit percentage, which may lead to a slight decrease in revenue for FY2026 [1] - CMB International has slightly reduced the per unit dividend forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 by approximately 1.5% and 2.9% respectively, while also introducing forecasts for FY2028 [1]