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粉笔(02469):竞争激烈致业绩承压,AI应用有望破局
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-04 15:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is facing pressure on performance due to intense competition in the recruitment training industry, leading to a decline in training business sales and revenue [3] - The launch of the AI-based question practice system class aims to establish a leading position in educational AI applications, with approximately 50,000 sales and revenue of about 20 million RMB by the end of June [3] - The AI question practice system class has shown initial success in improving conversion rates, attracting many previously non-paying users, and the company plans to expand this offering to more subjects in the future [3] - Despite the competitive challenges, the company is expected to achieve non-linear growth through AI applications, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 263 million, 295 million, and 358 million RMB respectively [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,034 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, but is expected to decline to 2,625 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.9% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 189 million RMB in 2023 to 263 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 50% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37 in 2023 to 28 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4]