智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，观察到26年春运首周人员流动稳健增长、26年春节假期机酒预订 表现较好，看好最长春节期间休闲旅游需求释放。此外，在社服行业呈现出需求企稳筑底或回升（如免 税）、供给端竞争趋缓格局趋稳（如酒店、咖啡、部分餐饮）的背景下，继续看好实现价格止跌回升或 同店修复的优质头部。 中金主要观点如下： 旅游：看好最长春节期间休闲旅游需求释放 据交通运输部数据和该行测算，春运前7天（2/2-2/7）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长约2.3%，其中 铁路/公路/水路/民航客运量分别同比+0.7%/+2.3%/+15.8%/+5.9%；航班管家测算26年春运40天民航旅客 运输量预计同比+5.3%。航旅纵横显示截至1/29春节机票日均预订量同比+16%，出入境机票预订量同比 略有增长。 免税：26年春节假期海南客流同比表现亮眼；25年同期销售额基数较低 客流方面，由于去年同期低基数、海南自贸港封关政策红利释放等综合影响，26年春节假期海南机票预 订同比表现亮眼。根据去哪儿数据，截至1月13日，26年春节假期三亚/海口机票预订量同比 +90%/120%。海口海关数据显示25年春节离岛免税日均销售额2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming peak period for the disclosure of Q3 earnings reports for A-share listed companies, highlighting a potential marginal slowdown in domestic growth momentum and the focus on fundamentals amid market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Q3 earnings growth for A-shares is expected to improve compared to Q2, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% for overall A-shares and 8.2% for non-financial sectors [3][6]. - Retail sales growth has shown a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from January to August, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The CPI has seen a year-on-year decline of 0.23%, while the PPI has improved slightly with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - Non-bank financial sectors are expected to benefit from high market activity, while gold and technology hardware sectors are anticipated to be structural highlights [4][5]. - The energy and materials sector, particularly the non-ferrous metals segment, is expected to perform well due to rising demand and prices, with gold prices reaching new highs [5][6]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, with mandatory consumption showing weak demand, while new consumption areas like beauty and trendy products are performing relatively well [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The article suggests focusing on sectors with structural highlights during the earnings disclosure phase, such as the gold sector and TMT sectors benefiting from AI trends [6][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying high-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, particularly in the AI industry and sectors with strong overseas market presence [6][8]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in industries that have undergone supply-side adjustments, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, and commercial vehicles [6][8].