美国总统特朗普对印度发出的关税威胁，正给本已步履蹒跚的印度股市带来新的冲击，并对严重依赖出口的行业构成直接打击。 7月30日，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称将从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税，高于对亚洲其他几个国家征收的15%至20%的区间。特朗普还威胁 将因印度从俄罗斯购买能源而施加额外惩罚。 特朗普威胁征收的25%关税预计将对印度多个行业造成直接冲击。尽管目前尚无关于具体行业关税税率和惩罚措施的明确信息，但以下行业被认为风险 最大： 医药：印度是美国最大的非专利药出口国，年出口额约80亿美元。印度太阳药业、瑞迪博士等大型药企至少30%的收入来自美国。根 据IQVIA的数据，2022年美国每10张处方中就有4张由印度公司提供。 （印 度孟买证券交易所SENSEX30指数低开近1%后小幅反弹） 据媒体报道，新美国安全中心（Center for a New American Security）的一位策略师表示，美印谈判出现了麻烦的迹象，包括美国希望印度进一步开放农 业市场。 这位策略师表示，农业对于印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪来说是"政治敏感"的领域，他可能无法在这个领域做出让步。这或许是导致谈判陷入僵局、并引发 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the Chinese industrial sector, indicating a balanced outlook on investment opportunities within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in emerging industries in China that possess structural competitive advantages, particularly in the context of challenges such as debt, deflation, demographic changes, and global multipolarity [3][8]. - It identifies significant opportunities in advanced supply chains and manufacturing, highlighting the potential for growth in sectors such as machinery, automotive, new energy, semiconductors, aerospace, artificial intelligence, software, pharmaceuticals, humanoid robotics, and eVTOL [4][30]. - The report outlines a framework consisting of six key elements that support industry upgrades, which include R&D investment, talent development, capital influx, government policy support, market demand, and supply chain robustness [31][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the Chinese industrial sector as "In-Line," suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on investment prospects [10]. Key Industry Opportunities - The report identifies 28 stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial upgrades and emerging trends in China, focusing on companies that are either upstream in the supply chain or are key enablers in sectors like automation and AI [4][42]. Six Key Elements Framework 1. **R&D Investment**: China’s R&D expenditure is primarily concentrated in manufacturing, with a notable increase in investment in technology and emerging industries [15][31]. 2. **Talent Pool**: China produces the largest number of engineering graduates globally, with a focus on strategic emerging fields such as AI and data science [31][32]. 3. **Capital Influx**: Significant capital has flowed into advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly semiconductors and machinery, with a total of approximately RMB 20 trillion from 2021 to 2024 [32][33]. 4. **Government Support**: The Chinese government has implemented various strategic initiatives to support key industries, including AI, semiconductors, and aerospace, enhancing the investment landscape [33][34]. 5. **Market Demand**: The report highlights a positive feedback loop between rising demand and innovation, particularly in consumer electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery [34]. 6. **Supply Chain Development**: The report discusses the importance of moving up the value chain, particularly in sectors with low localization rates and strong downstream demand [34][35]. Emerging Industry Focus - The report underscores the potential of artificial intelligence to drive significant economic value in China, projecting that AI could contribute RMB 11 trillion to the labor value by 2035, representing 5.5% of nominal GDP [37][38]. - It also notes the expected growth in sectors such as autonomous vehicles and industrial AI applications, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and operational efficiency across various industries [39].