Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1, which has led to immediate responses from the affected nations and raised new challenges in international trade relations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Responses from Affected Countries - Japan expressed "regret" over the U.S. decision but remains open to negotiations, indicating potential modifications to the tariff letter before the deadline [2][3]. - South Korea vowed to expedite tariff negotiations with the U.S. to resolve trade uncertainties swiftly [3][4]. - Thailand's finance minister expressed shock at the tariff rates but is confident in reducing them to levels similar to other countries [4][5]. - Malaysia and Myanmar are also seeking to engage with the U.S. to negotiate fair trade agreements or lower tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Country Reactions - South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa challenged the accuracy of the tariff calculations, asserting that there are discrepancies in trade data interpretation between the two nations [6][7]. - Brazil's President Lula criticized the U.S. tariffs as "wrong and irresponsible," emphasizing that other countries could retaliate with equivalent tariffs if the U.S. proceeds [7][8]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Despite various countries actively seeking to resolve the crisis through dialogue, previous efforts have not significantly influenced the final outcomes, leading to increased uncertainty in future trade relations [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "America First" is prompting the EU to enter an era of "strategic awakening," with the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the EU economy likely to manifest sooner than the positive effects of fiscal expansion, which may only begin to outweigh the negative impacts by Q4 of this year [1][4][13]. Group 1: Strategic Awakening in the EU - The unilateralism of the Trump administration is increasing anxiety among European nations, leading to a consensus on increasing defense spending within the EU [2][13]. - Germany's €1 trillion fiscal expansion plan has completed the legislative process and will be discussed after the new government is formed [2][13]. - The EU's €800 billion proposal for "rearming Europe" is actively progressing, with national exception clause applications approved in July [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the EU Economy - The static assessment indicates that U.S. tariffs will raise the effective tariff rate on imports from the EU by 9.6 percentage points, potentially reducing EU exports by approximately 1.9% and impacting EU GDP by about 0.5% [4][12]. - The pharmaceutical and organic chemical sectors are particularly vulnerable to these tariffs, with countries like Ireland, Finland, Italy, and Germany being sensitive to U.S. tariff policies [4][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion and Economic Growth - Increased fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to effectively boost economic growth in Europe, with France and Germany likely to be the primary beneficiaries [4][18]. - The positive impact of fiscal expansion may take longer to materialize compared to the immediate negative effects of tariffs, with expectations that the latter will begin to diminish by Q4 of this year [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is crucial for the EU economy to avoid recession, with many European companies focusing on equipment upgrades and product R&D rather than capacity expansion [18]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to leverage the EU's fiscal expansion to accelerate strategic transformations and seek potential opportunities in Europe, particularly in sectors like electrical and optical equipment [18].