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棉花:需求仍将限制,郑棉期货反弹动能
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:01
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The demand will still limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton yesterday with no daily increase, and 13,005 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.12% increase. CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.21% decrease, and 18,955 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.11% increase. ICE cotton 07 closed at 68.7 cents/pound yesterday with a -0.65% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 254,032 lots yesterday, a decrease of 2,112 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 773,192 lots, a decrease of 7,911 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 4,278 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,233 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,555 yesterday, an increase of 216, and the effective forecast was 1,938, a decrease of 239. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,068 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.12%. The price in Hebei was 14,241 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.12%. The 3128B index was 14,224 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan or 0.25% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained sluggish, market quotations decreased slightly, and the quoted prices in different regions varied greatly. The spot sales basis was stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was mainly CF09 + 750 - 800, and some were as high as 900 - 1000, for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The basis of some transactions of 2024/25 Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1200, for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The freight for cotton transported out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market was poor, downstream orders were insufficient, and procurement decreased. Spinning mills' operating rates declined, and the number of holidays increased recently. The price of cotton yarn gradually decreased. The weakness of pure cotton grey fabric continued recently, the shipment slowed down significantly, and the shipment volume declined. Weaving mills purchased based on sales, and their procurement enthusiasm was not high. New orders for weaving mills were insufficient, and the production of conventional varieties increased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton first rose and then fell. Driven by technical buying in the Asian trading session, ICE cotton once reached 69.75 cents/pound. However, due to poor US cotton export data and favorable weather in the main producing areas, and the lack of fundamental drivers, ICE cotton finally closed at 68.7 cents/pound [3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].