2026 年 01 月 11 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 于畅 S0350124080008 | | | | yuc02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 多晶硅、丁二烯价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 10.7% | 9.6% | 45.1% | | 沪深 300 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.9% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注 反内卷和铬盐（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》 ——2025-12-08 《基础化工行 ...

上周，国际原油价格偏强震荡。截至2026年1月2日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货(WTI)主 力合约结算价格为57.32美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升1.02%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主力 合约结算价格为60.75美元/桶，较2025年12月26日上升0.18%。 从现货市场看，涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为工业级碳酸锂上涨22.37%、精对苯二甲酸上涨8.32%、对 二甲苯(CFR中国)上涨6.97%、涤纶FDY上涨5.04%、页岩油上涨4.98%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为 液氯下跌37.72%、液化天然气下跌6.69%、纯MDI下跌4.23%、硫黄下跌3.96%、维生素D3下跌3.85%。 中化新网讯上周(2025年12月29日至31日)，仅有3个交易日，期间石油与化工指数中化工指数全部下 跌，石油指数全部上涨。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计下跌0.65%、化工机械指数累计下跌2.97%、化学制药指数累计下跌 2.19%、农药化肥指数累计下跌0.73%；石油板块方面，石油加工指数累计上涨6.19%、石油开采指数累 计上涨4.93%、石油贸易指数累计上涨2.66%。 从资本市 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - The majority of indices in the petroleum and chemical sectors increased last week, with only the petroleum trade index declining [1] - The chemical raw materials index rose by 5.09%, the chemical machinery index by 5.46%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 0.14%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 3.86% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index increased by 0.87%, and the petroleum extraction index by 1.96%, while the petroleum trade index fell by 1.60% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices showed a strong performance, with WTI settling at $56.74 per barrel, up 0.14% from December 19, and Brent at $60.64 per barrel, up 0.28% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price increases included battery-grade lithium carbonate up 15.29%, purified terephthalic acid up 8.32%, paraxylene (CFR China) up 7.26%, polyester FDY up 5.04%, and shale oil up 4.98% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price declines included liquid chlorine down 37.72%, liquefied natural gas down 6.69%, pure MDI down 4.23%, sulfur down 3.96%, and vitamin D3 down 3.85% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Shenjian Co. up 61.20%, Jiuding New Materials up 48.75%, Jinlitai up 33.12%, Zaiseng Technology up 28.39%, and Dongcai Technology up 28.34% [2] - The top five listed chemical companies with the largest stock price declines were Bohai Chemical down 28.32%, Suli Co. down 13.71%, Tiantie Co. down 13.06%, Bofei Electric down 11.76%, and Kesi Co. down 10.22% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

2、国内有机硅行业自律行动推进：近期，有机硅行业通过产业自律协同调涨价格，有机硅主流单体厂 于11/18召开行业会议，会后山东单体厂报盘涨至13100元/吨，其余主流单体厂报盘涨至13200元/吨。 产业趋势：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》出台以来，在政策支持之下，产业科技 创新能力有望得到增强，新型市场及应用需求有望得到拓展，供给端有望得到科学调控，石化化工行业 转型升级有望加速。化工板块资本开支已近尾声，在建工程同比连续三个季度下滑，叠加老旧装置淘汰 更新+节能降碳等"反内卷"政策的深化与显效，部分两高及落后产能确定性退出，中小型企业加速出 清，供给端边际明显改善。2025三季度石化产业指数整体ROE小幅回升至10.1%，筑底态势趋于明确， 而市盈率分位数仍处于近十年中枢水平附近，板块估值性价比值得关注。 相关产品：化工行业ETF（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油 石化、基础化工产业龙头，指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时涵盖高股息+高成长成 份券，2023年以来收益表现在可比化工行业指数中保持领先。化工行业ET ...

MDI Market Overview and Outlook Industry Overview - The global MDI market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to new capacities from China and South Korea, coupled with the impact of US-China tariffs, which limit price increase momentum. The domestic market has entered a low season, and short-term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Global MDI demand growth is lower than expected but still positive. Recent domestic prices for polymer MDI are around 14,500-14,600 RMB/ton, while pure MDI has decreased to approximately 19,500 RMB/ton [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The MDI industry has seen significant changes in 2025, with slow recovery in domestic and overseas demand. The expected global demand growth was initially set at 3-4%, with domestic expectations at 5-6%, but actual growth has fallen short [2][5] - **Regional Price Comparison**: Recent price adjustments in Asia were lower than anticipated, with a recent increase of $100 instead of the expected $200. Current prices in Europe and domestically are close, while the US market remains stable due to anti-dumping policies and stable demand [2][3] - **Production Rates**: Domestic MDI operating rates have dropped to around 70%, with planned maintenance by companies like Wanhua Ningbo and BASF Chongqing having limited supply impact. European operating rates are also around 70%, while US production has returned to normal levels [4][6] - **Demand Drivers**: Domestic demand for MDI is positively influenced by growth in refrigerator and freezer production, automotive production, and cold storage capacity. The demand for formaldehyde-free board materials is increasing, and wind turbine blade demand is also growing [5][7] Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: MDI inventory is distributed among factories, traders, and end customers. Factory inventories are normal, while traders are keen to stock up, and downstream customers are maintaining low inventory levels due to seasonal price fluctuations [11] - **Future Demand Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with reduced tariff impacts and recovery in the refrigerator and freezer supply chain. The automotive sector is expected to maintain high growth, although slightly lower than in 2025. Exports may rebound, particularly from Europe, Africa, and India, compensating for weakness in the US market [9][10] - **Cost Structures**: Domestic production costs vary, with Wanhua using a coal chemical route at a lower cost compared to others using natural gas. European production costs are higher due to stable natural gas prices, while US production costs remain the lowest globally [13][15] Conclusion - The MDI market is navigating through a complex landscape of supply-demand dynamics, pricing pressures, and regional variations. The outlook for 2026 appears positive, with several growth drivers in place, although challenges remain in the form of geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations.

2025 年 12 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 209 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 业绩稳定增长，后续管线丰富--华东医药/化学制药(000963/213701) 公司点评 超长债企稳了吗？--债券研究周报 隆培素上市在即，期待 TransCon 技术长效生长激素商业化空间--行业周报 固收买卖方怎么看待当前债市点位的配置价值？--债券研究周报 去产能迎来加速阶段，布局生猪底部--行业周报 节奏为先，革新求变——2026 年可转债年度策略--策略 PPT 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 分析师：李永磊 S0350521080004 分析师：董伯骏 S0350521080009 联系人：于畅 S0350124080008 2025 年 12 月 4 日，国海化工景气指数为 91.81，较 11 月 27 日上升 0.45。 投资建议： 日本首相高市早苗近期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 85.20 [1][4][5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience amid fluctuations in the overseas MDI market, attributed to high energy costs and aging facilities affecting European competitors. The company maintains stable operations and good profitability due to its cost and scale advantages [1][2] - Recent price increases in MDI products globally, driven by supply disruptions and maintenance in major overseas plants, have led to an upward revision of the company's profit expectations for 2025. The recovery of MDI market conditions is anticipated alongside China's economic recovery and sustained overseas demand [1][2][4] - The report highlights that while the domestic MDI supply is expected to remain ample due to new capacity additions, short-term demand may stabilize due to weak real estate performance and reduced appliance demand. The sustainability of high MDI prices may be limited, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from any market recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global MDI market is experiencing price increases, with major companies like Hunstman and BASF raising prices by USD 200 to EUR 350. As of December 5, 2025, the domestic pure MDI price in China reached RMB 19,500 per ton, an 11% increase since the end of September [2] - China's MDI production capacity is projected to grow by 27% to 5.55 million tons in 2025, with the company expected to add 700,000 tons of new capacity in 2026. However, the domestic MDI market faces challenges from increased supply and weak demand in the short term [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 12.57 billion, a 2% increase from previous estimates. For 2026 and 2027, net profits are projected to be RMB 17.79 billion and RMB 20.82 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42% and 17% [4][9] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 85.20, which corresponds to a 14x P/E for 2026 [4][9]

万华化学：公司为全球MDI行业的龙头，国内及亚太地区最大的MDI制造企业，拥有380万吨MDI产 能；公司此前宣布将从12月1日起，上调在东南亚及南亚地区的聚合MDI与纯MDI产品价格，调涨幅度 为200美元/吨。 据生意社12月3日消息，匈牙利宝思德公司宣布1日起对所有MDI产品涨价，涨幅均为300欧元/吨（约 2400人民币）。 消息面上，据慧正资讯，亨斯迈位于荷兰罗曾堡的28万吨/年MDI装置于11月21日前后意外停车检修， 预计停产将持续至少一个月，其另一套16万吨/年装置也同步降至低负荷运行。此外，近期MDI行业进 入密集检修期，在供应收缩预期推动下，国际巨头巴斯夫、万华化学相继提价。 东方证券表示，从下半年的MDI行情来看，纯MDI由于供需更集中于国内，且保质期短难以库存，在下 游氨纶等需求并不旺盛的情况下，价格已经回到去年年末的高点。虽然当下并不是MDI需求的旺季，但 供给端的意外收缩，有望催动MDI价格反弹。而且MDI供给格局与需求情况更好于TDI，不排除本次事 件成为行业中长期拐点的可能。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 氯碱化工：公司参股30%上海亨斯迈聚氨酯和15%上海联恒:上海亨斯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]