2025 年 09 月 28 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 仲逸涵 S0350525070003 | | | zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026 年）》，涤纶长丝行业去库 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 《工作方案》提出，2025－2026 年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长 5% 以上，经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创新能力显著增强，精细化延伸、 数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高，减污降碳协同增效明显，化工园区 由规范建设向高质量发展迈进。聚焦石化化工行业发展面临的新形势、 新挑战，《工作方案》围绕强创新、提效益、拓需求、优载体、促合作 等 5 方面部署 10 项重点任务。一是强化产业科技创新，提升有效供给能 力。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Foundation Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From September 19, 2025, the Foundation Chemical Index dropped by 1.3% in the past week, rose by 2.7% in the past month, 17.4% in the past three months, 50.5% in the past year, and 23.4% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical fell 3.7% in the past week, Baofeng Energy dropped 3.8%, Satellite Chemical declined 4.1%, Huaxin Chemical rose 0.2%, and New Hope Liuhe fell 3.7% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of September 19, 2025, the total market value of Wanhua Chemical was 204.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024, expected to be 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 19 billion yuan in 2027. Similar data is provided for other companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,600 yuan/ton, 15,071 yuan/ton, and 13,694 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 179 yuan/ton, + 143 yuan/ton, and + 109 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,312 yuan/ton, 2,784 yuan/ton, and 2,558 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 221 yuan/ton, + 101 yuan/ton, and - 157 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average weekly prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,348 yuan/ton, 4,273 yuan/ton, 503 yuan/ton, and 4,293 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 46 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,704 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,093 yuan/ton, 1,844 yuan/ton, and - 143 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 29 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 335 yuan/ton, 1,442 yuan/ton, and - 369 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,108 yuan/ton, 1,683 yuan/ton, 3,875 yuan/ton, and 2,344 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton, - 107 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 152 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, - 316 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 27 yuan/ton, - 16 yuan/ton, - 122 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2. Foundation Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Foundation Chemical Index Trend** No specific content about the index trend is provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** The report shows the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector** It presents the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, along with the profitability of different production processes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, etc. [25][26]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector** The report shows the price trends and profitability of domestic coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, and other products [42][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift could enhance the cash flow and dividend yield of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to profit-generating ones [6][29] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected shortfall of 250,000 tons by 2028, which is about 23% of the total annual production [6] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 51.0% over the past 12 months, compared to 42.5% for the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for low-cost expansion in major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, alongside sectors like tires and fertilizers [7] - It also points out the improving conditions in various segments, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and agricultural chemicals [8] Key Products Analysis - Recent price increases were noted for acrylic acid and esters, with butyl acrylate priced at 7,600 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.40% increase [10] - The report also mentions the price of polymer MDI in East China at 15,550 RMB/ton, up by 1.97% [10] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [30]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane sector decreased compared to the previous week [2]. - In the oil, gas, and olefin sector, the average prices of ethane, propane, and naphtha increased slightly, while the average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene decreased. The theoretical profits of various production processes also decreased [2]. - In the coal chemical sector, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF decreased, while the average price of acetic acid increased. The gross profits of these products also showed corresponding changes [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index rose by 2.4% in the past week, 6.1% in the past month, 17.5% in the past three months, 50.4% in the past year, and 25.1% since the beginning of 2025 [8]. - Among the related companies, Wanhua Chemical rose by 2.9% in the past week, Baofeng Energy fell by 0.7%, Satellite Chemical rose by 0.6%, Huaxin Chemical rose by 0.5%, and New Hope Liuhe rose by 4.7% [8]. - The report also provides the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI were 17,779 yuan/ton, 14,929 yuan/ton, and 13,585 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 71 yuan/ton, 143 yuan/ton, and 702 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - The gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI were 4,533 yuan/ton, 2,683 yuan/ton, and 2,716 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 51 yuan/ton, 122 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain** - The average prices of ethane, propane, and naphtha were 1,302 yuan/ton, 4,259 yuan/ton, and 4,266 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 8 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - The average price of polyethylene was 7,707 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,122 yuan/ton, 1,866 yuan/ton, and -125 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 57 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were -330 yuan/ton, 1,463 yuan/ton, and -352 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 37 yuan/ton, 33 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Coal Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,129 yuan/ton, 1,707 yuan/ton, 3,982 yuan/ton, and 2,287 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -10 yuan/ton, -25 yuan/ton, -154 yuan/ton, and +48 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The gross profits of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 179 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, -193 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -9 yuan/ton, -31 yuan/ton, -90 yuan/ton, and +5 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend** - There is no specific content about the basic chemical index trend in the provided text. - **Polyurethane Sector** - The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI decreased this week [2]. - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector** - The prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, and naphtha changed slightly, while the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene decreased. The profits of various production processes also decreased [2]. - **Coal Chemical Sector** - The prices and gross profits of coal chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF showed different degrees of change [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that by the end of 2024, China's new energy storage capacity will reach 73.76 million kilowatts / 168 million kilowatt-hours, accounting for over 40% of the global total, making China the world's largest in this sector [1][3]. - As of June 30 this year, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 94.91 million kilowatts / 222 million kilowatt-hours, representing an approximate growth of 29% compared to the end of 2024 [1][3]. - Key regions contributing to this growth include Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, each exceeding 10 million kilowatts, while Shandong, Jiangsu, and Ningxia have all surpassed 5 million kilowatts [1][3]. Group 2 - The basic chemical sector saw a weekly increase of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.81%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 1.43 percentage points [7]. - The top five chemical products with price increases this week include methyl maltose (+8%), paraquat (+6.7%), and epoxy chloropropane (+5.5%) [4][7]. - The report indicates that the market for paraquat is experiencing strong performance, with prices rising due to tight supply and robust demand, particularly from overseas markets [4][8]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply and demand changes in various sub-industries, particularly those driven by domestic demand to counteract tariff impacts [8]. - Recommendations for specific companies include Jinhe Industrial for sucralose, Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Shares for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [8]. - The report also suggests that industries with potential for recovery in capacity include organic silicon and spandex, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Price Trends - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 17,950, 15,580, and 15,489 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of +10, -210, and -515 CNY/ton compared to the previous period[2] - The average price for urea is 1,755 CNY/ton, showing an increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the average price for synthetic ammonia is 2,162 CNY/ton, decreasing by 127 CNY/ton[2] Profit Margins - The gross profit margins for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 4,577, 3,241, and 4,619 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of +5, -238, and +121 CNY/ton compared to the previous period[2] - The gross profit margin for urea is 71 CNY/ton, increasing by 4 CNY/ton, while synthetic ammonia has a gross profit margin of 211 CNY/ton, decreasing by 148 CNY/ton[2] Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.9% over the past week and 8.2% over the past month, while the year-to-date increase is 22.5%[7] - Wanhua Chemical's stock price rose by 6.6% in the past week, while Baofeng Energy's stock price increased by 4.8%[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected project implementation, weaker-than-expected demand recovery due to macroeconomic slowdown, and significant changes in industry capacity[2][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's main business remains stable, with a short-term impact from impairment and scrapping [5] - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom due to improving product prices and demand in Q3 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [5] - The sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals increased by 14.5%, 7.8%, and 35.4% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 12.2% and 7.0%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] Future Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its growth in the medium to long term, including a new 700,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion project expected to be operational by Q2 2026 [6] - The company is also involved in a joint venture to build a 1.6 million-ton/year specialty polyolefin project, which will significantly enhance its international presence [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit of 13.876 billion yuan, 17.142 billion yuan, and 19.971 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.43, 5.48, and 6.38 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with TDI price increases anticipated to drive profit recovery [1][10]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI production capacity is expected to reach 144,000 tons per year by May 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in the polyurethane market [10][12]. - The company is focusing on innovation and expanding its product lines, which is expected to create new profit growth points [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175,361 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 245,163 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.5% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16,816 million yuan in 2023, declining to 13,033 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 20,340 million yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - The company's EPS is expected to be 5.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 4.15 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 6.48 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments was 368.88 billion yuan, 349.34 billion yuan, and 156.28 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 4.04%, -11.73%, and 20.41% [2][4]. - The average market price for TDI in the first half of 2025 was around 12,400 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.42% year-on-year decline [2][10]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the polyurethane segment was 25.68%, while the petrochemical segment experienced a negative gross margin of -0.37% [2][4]. - The average price of raw materials such as pure benzene decreased by 21.53% year-on-year, impacting overall cost structures [3][9]. Capacity and Production - In the first half of 2025, the production of polyurethane products was 2.98 million tons, an increase of 5.30% year-on-year, while sales rose by 12.64% to 3.03 million tons [4][9]. - The company successfully launched new production lines, including MS devices and specialty amines, which are expected to enhance its product offerings [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]