煤炭行业近期情况如何？ 动力煤方面，本周主产区多数煤矿正常生产，仅少数暂时停产，对供给略有收 缩。尽管寒潮影响短期内拉动终端日耗同比正增长，但煤炭价格仍小幅回落， 这主要由于北港存煤同比偏高 150 万吨至 2,700 万吨左右，中转港口货源充足。 此外，由于年底部分抢进口印尼煤炭存量以及内外贸多元补库，使得终端存煤 处于相对安全水平。本轮寒潮进入尾声后预计气温回升，加之春节假期临近， 周期行业-春季躁动，周期看好哪些方向？20260125 摘要 玻纤行业受益于风电和新能源车需求增长，粗纱和电子纱均呈现结构性 需求向好和量价齐升态势，企业已发布涨价函，预计 2026 年业绩将有 所体现，龙头企业中国巨石具备成本优势，有望受益于中高端产品占比 提升。 消费建材企业通过渠道变革，大力发展小 B 端及 C 端渠道，现金流及盈 利能力明显改善。三棵树发力家装墙面漆，兔宝宝稳健发力小 B 端，且 消费建材已宣布涨价，市场供给侧逐渐缓和。 水泥行业 2026 年需求或将萎缩，但供给侧存在亮点，如政府限产、市 场化整合及西部基建投资，海外市场需求旺盛，出海水泥企业成长性突 出，关注海螺水泥和华新水泥。 动力煤市场短期内受寒 ...

Group 1 - The cement industry is experiencing price increases and cost reductions, leading to profit recovery, with strong performance in overseas markets and ongoing supply-side checks on overproduction [1][2] - The consumption building materials sector remains at a low point, but signs of recovery are emerging in Q2 among leading companies; balance sheet repairs are a slow variable, with different companies adopting varying paces in cost control and transitioning from extensive to high-efficiency operations [2] - The fiberglass industry is benefiting from high demand for specialty fiberglass driven by AI, while traditional fiberglass margins continue to improve on a month-over-month basis [1][2] Group 2 - The glass industry is in a bottoming phase, with ongoing observation of supply-side changes [2] - Investment recommendations highlight optimism for AIPCB upstream new materials, where leading companies have high technical barriers and rapid product upgrades, likely maintaining first-mover advantages; there is also a positive outlook for "Belt and Road" initiatives, focusing on leading companies in tiles, cement, and fiberglass in Africa, as well as domestic paint leaders benefiting from internal competition and gradually emerging growth trends [2]

Demand Side - The real estate transaction prices are showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with 14 out of 70 major cities in China reporting a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices as of June 2025, an increase of 1 city compared to May and 10 cities year-on-year compared to June 2024 [2] - The decline in housing transaction area is gradually narrowing, indicating that the demand side is expected to stabilize and recover as macroeconomic policies become more accommodative [2] Cement and Concrete - The construction sector remains robust, supported by urban renewal demands and proactive supply-side measures, which are expected to stabilize cement prices [3] - The cost of cement clinker, primarily driven by coal prices, is predicted to remain relatively low, leading to further cost reductions and potential profit recovery in the cement and concrete industry by 2025 [3] Glass Fiber - The application fields for glass fiber are continuously expanding, with a long-term positive trend in consumption volume due to increasing penetration rates in certain sectors [4] - The supply structure is experiencing an oversupply, but demand for wind power yarn, electronic yarn, and thermosetting products remains strong, particularly for low-dielectric electronic cloth, which is in short supply, supporting overall price increases and profit recovery in the industry [4] Consumer Building Materials - Policies stimulating demand for commercial housing, such as "stabilizing prices" and "ensuring delivery," are expected to support the completion and sales of commercial housing [5] - The demand in the stock market for secondary renovations is continuously being released, and as the downstream demand shifts from B-end to C-end, companies with strong brand and channel advantages are likely to see an increase in market share [5]