纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1337 146 | 11 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -7 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1191 1372600 | 18 -10676 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | 1148707 | -60017 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -325488 | -23179 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -234728 | -21109 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 9064 | -9 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1643 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -111 | -11 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -192 | -16 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -121 | -20 | | | 玻璃基差 | -101 | -13 | | | | | 华北重碱(日 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 8 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1309 | 环比 数据指标 -49 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1162 | 环比 -34 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 147 1198103 | -15 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) 1641 纯碱前20名净持仓 | 1365953 -345354 | -62895 34639 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | 30267 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | | | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | -252457 2388 | -50 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 11020 -100 | 828 13 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -165 | 11 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -98 | 8 | | | 玻璃基差 | -82 | 30 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1260 | -20 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 | 0 | | 现货市场 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash industry is facing a combination of high inventory and weak demand, with the supply - demand contradiction intensifying. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand, but there are short - term expectations of production cuts, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The glass market has high mid - stream inventory in the short term, which restricts price rebound. However, in the long - term, policies are expected to be favorable for glass demand, and the futures price is expected to decline first and then rebound with fluctuations [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market on August 13**: The main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated downward, closing at 1383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.36%, with an increase of 64,009 lots in positions. The industry has high inventory (1.8851 million tons in factory inventory) and weak demand (photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 87,000 tons), and the supply side has high production due to low maintenance volume [7][8]. - **Glass Market on August 13**: As of August 8, 2025, the national float glass daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%, a new high this year. The cold - repair production line daily melting volume was 21,400 tons. The order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The total glass inventory was about 59.499 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.87%, and the inventory days were 25.5 days, with a slowdown in inventory reduction [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][21]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's financial sector is innovating to support green transformation in traditional industries through tailored financial products linked to environmental performance metrics [1][3][9]. Group 1: Financial Innovations - Dongguan Agricultural Commercial Bank has launched a "scattered industrial wastewater index-linked loan" that ties financing costs and credit limits to the company's wastewater treatment performance [1]. - As of now, Guangdong financial institutions have issued 39 loans meeting transformation finance standards, totaling 3.36 billion yuan [2]. - The shift in banking perspective has moved from "whether to do" to "how to do" regarding transformation finance, indicating a growing acceptance of financing high-carbon industries [3][9]. Group 2: Industry Standards and Implementation - The establishment of transformation finance standards is crucial for supporting projects in high-carbon industries like steel and cement, which have traditionally struggled to secure financing [3][4]. - Local transformation finance standards can take months to over a year to develop and implement, as seen with the ceramic industry standard initiated in August 2023 [4]. - The People's Bank of China is leading the development of transformation finance standards for several industries, while local governments are encouraged to create their own standards based on regional characteristics [3][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The complexity of implementing transformation finance projects remains a challenge compared to traditional green projects, requiring detailed documentation and assessments [5][6]. - Financial institutions are exploring ways to streamline the process for small and medium-sized enterprises by adjusting information disclosure requirements [8]. - The Guangdong government has introduced loan interest subsidies for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises, which could enhance the attractiveness of transformation finance [9][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - Financial institutions are focusing on identifying viable transformation projects and enhancing collaboration with government departments to create project databases [9]. - There is a call for clearer regulatory guidance to help banks navigate financing for high-carbon industries while managing risks [10]. - The ongoing development of transformation finance is seen as a critical step in supporting Guangdong's transition to a greener economy [1][8].

Summary of the Conference Call for Fulete (福莱特) Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Fulete (福莱特) - **Industry**: Photovoltaic Glass Industry Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Fulete reported revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.7%, primarily due to exceptionally high installation levels in Q1 2024 [2][3] - The company faced price pressure, with domestic market prices dropping to 10.5 yuan/unit, leading to losses of 1-1.5 yuan/unit for most companies [2][6] - Despite challenges, Fulete maintained strong profitability and cash flow control, with no new investment plans currently [2][7] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a second round of capacity clearance, with significant demand pressure in 2025 [3][18] - Fulete's daily photovoltaic glass production capacity reached 20,600 tons by the end of 2023, accounting for approximately 25% of the global market share [3][12] - The company has adjusted its customer structure, increasing orders from India and the US to counteract domestic price declines [2][3] Challenges and Strategies - Fulete is actively seeking to stabilize prices and is looking for support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to avoid deeper losses [6][7] - The glass industry is facing cash flow declines, particularly among second-tier companies, which are experiencing extended payment terms and increased financial costs [8][14] - The company has proactively shut down 1,800 tons of production capacity to adapt to market adjustments, maintaining a two-month collection cycle for receivables [8][13] Future Outlook - The overall supply in the glass industry is expected to decline until the end of 2026, with a more thorough capacity clearance anticipated [3][21] - Fulete's long-term effective capacity is projected to recover to over 20% as the industry consolidates [3][13] - The company is not planning new projects, focusing instead on maintaining operational efficiency and profitability [7][17] Price and Profitability Trends - The current price of photovoltaic glass is around 10.5 yuan, with potential further declines threatening profitability across the industry [22][25] - Fulete's net profit for the year is projected to be between 550 million to 558 million yuan, factoring in some impairment elements [25] - The glass industry is expected to see price stabilization and recovery post-capacity clearance, with long-term profitability anticipated [22][26] Investment Considerations - The photovoltaic glass sector is currently undervalued, with a target price of 18.51 yuan for A-shares and 13.3 HKD for Hong Kong shares [27] - The sector's resilience and long-term investment value make Fulete a stock to watch [27][28] Additional Important Insights - The glass industry has seen a significant drop in stock prices since 2021 due to increased capacity and lower-than-expected photovoltaic installation growth [2][9] - The company benefits from a strategic production capacity layout concentrated in regions with high component manufacturer density, enhancing transportation efficiency [15][16] - The industry is characterized by a high barrier to entry due to substantial capital requirements for new projects, making it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively [14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will likely hover at the bottom, and prices will continue to face pressure. With the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, market sentiment will be the main driver. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, the supply has increased with two glass production lines resuming production, but it remains at a low level. The industry's profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production may increase. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. After the glass price drops, there will be policy rumors to support the bottom. It is recommended to buy put options on rallies and go long on futures on dips [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,092 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1,559,642 hands, down 39,415 hands; glass main contract position is 1,522,202 hands, down 4,105 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 473,312, down 22,482; glass top 20 net position is - 392,954, up 24,900. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 2,815 tons, down 379 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 797 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 46, up 6; glass September - January contract spread is - 92, up 5. Soda ash basis is - 8 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; glass basis is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shahe glass sheets are 1,088 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32% (weekly), unchanged; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68% (weekly), unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 15.84 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 224 (weekly), up 2. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 188.4 million tons (weekly), up 2.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 67.102 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.983 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 16, the national power load hit a new high, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time. The State Council Executive Meeting plans to implement a special action to boost consumption and optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones. It also aims to standardize the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry and urge key car - makers to fulfill payment - term commitments. NVIDIA has restarted the sales of H20 in China, and inquiries have surged. He Lifeng stated that China will promote mutual - benefit and win - win results in the global industrial and supply chains [2]. Macro - aspect - The market is mainly observing whether an important meeting will be held at the end of July and if there will be new statements. There are still short - term policy expectations. Some false rumors are spreading in the short - term market, and commodity sentiment is the dominant factor [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - Supply: Domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, production is flat, supply is still ample, and profits continue to decline. Future production is expected to decrease, and natural - soda production will gradually become the mainstream. Demand: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and both operating rate and profit have improved. Photovoltaic glass is generally flat. Inventory: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - Supply: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and the industry profit has improved. Demand: The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have decreased, and procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample with production decline and profit drop, and it's expected that supply will stay loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to revert, and basis reversion trading may continue. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply slightly decreases with one more cold - repaired production line, and the industry profit keeps falling. The demand is expected to weaken further due to the poor real - estate situation. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main soda ash contract is 1181 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the main glass contract is 1006 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 175 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is - 13 yuan, down 17 yuan; that of glass is - 79 yuan, down 21 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 14 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is 37 yuan, down 3 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main soda ash contract is 1,588,831 lots, an increase of 79,343 lots; that of the main glass contract is 1,470,350 lots, an increase of 30,678 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 288,637 lots, a decrease of 65,695 lots; that in glass is - 322,568 lots, a decrease of 46,519 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 3,761 tons, an increase of 19 tons; those of glass are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,223 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; that of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.14 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 176.69 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 69,216,000 weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new - construction area of real estate is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative completion area of real estate is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters [2]. - The central bank plans to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land, and the real - estate market shows a stable trend. In the first five months, the total transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai is 10.94 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The real - estate market continued to recover in Q1 2025, and the decline has stopped and stabilized [2]. Industry News - The land transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year - on - year in H1 2025. In the 25th week of 2025, the new - house transactions in Shenzhen were 1,150 units, a week - on - week increase of 2%. Two residential - related land parcels in Guangzhou were sold at the reserve price of 2.496 billion yuan [2]. - In June, the number and area of second - hand housing online sign - ups in Guangzhou increased by 7.18% and 8.03% respectively week - on - week. A residential land parcel in Chengdu's Jinniu District was sold for 1.748 billion yuan. The land revenue in Chengdu in H1 increased by 100% year - on - year [2]. - Two residential land parcels in Nanjing's Xuanwu District were sold for about 1.2 billion yuan, and Greentown won a plot for 1.022 billion yuan. China Jinmao spent about 5.144 billion yuan to acquire three land parcels [2]. Macro - aspect - The third - batch funds for consumer goods trade - in will be allocated in July. The operating rate of domestic soda ash plants decreased this week, and the production of soda ash declined. The market supply is still ample, and the profit of domestic soda ash has decreased, with the profit of the ammonia - soda process turning negative [2].