2025 年 7 月 25 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【互联网传媒】谷歌 25Q2 核心业务均实现超预期加速增长，上调 25 年资本开支指 引——美股互联网传媒行业跟踪报告（二十七）(买入) 25Q2 谷歌广告收入超预期加速增长，显示美国经济活动整体活跃，关税带来的负面 影响尚未体现在广告市场，缓解了市场对于 AI 搜索侵蚀传统搜索引擎广告的担忧； 谷歌云收入和盈利强劲，上调全年资本开支指引，AI 负载持续供不应求。中长期来看， 数据中心+ASIC+算法+产品的全栈式 AI 产业链使谷歌在 AI 领域拥有稳固和差异化的 优势，建议持续关注。 【石化】纯碱、PVC：下游需求待复苏，"反内卷"有望加速供给侧出清——石化化工 反内卷稳增长系列之六(增持) 工信部即将推出石化化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健 康发展，相关龙头有望持续受益于行业供需格局改善。建议关注：（1）纯碱行业， 博源化工、山东海化、中盐化工、双环科技等；（2）PVC 行业，新疆天业、三友化 工、氯碱化工等。风险提示：政策进度不及预期，产能淘汰进度不及预期，行业景气 度波动风险。 【有色】"反内卷"主题有 ...

另外一个雅江电站涉及到的股票，比如说能建电建等等这些公司都是千亿级别的公司，很多都是千亿级 别的公司，这些股票连续在涨停，本身对指数就有一个巨大的拉动作用。昨天晚上我在直播的时候说， 我说如果说行情啊就是雅江电站的分化，应该是在啊七七就是周三，我们今天是周三周三的下午，这个 我绝对不是说啊在吹牛，大家可以今天晚上我们可以到，你们可以看底下评论区都是这样讲的，啊我到 底有没有说谎话？我们说的就是7月23号的下午，你可能说我撞大运也好，也猜的也好，没有关系，但 我们说的就是7月23下午为什么会出现这种情况？因为常规来讲，一般在历史上重大题材的分化就在第 三天，所以没有什么神奇的。 （原标题：和讯投顾朱和旺：冲过3600点，突然掉头向下，行情短期见顶？） 今天呢到了下午的时候，雅江很多板块很多个股出现了出面的澄清，比如说有很多炸药股说我们现在还 不确定对吧？有很多水水泥股说我们现在能不能参与到雅江电站里面还不知道等等，他们出面澄清了资 金出现了暂时的分歧，那么这资金呢11一旦出现了这种市场有一些负面的消息，资金自然而然会先获利 了结，也就是说市场上涨的速度比较快，他们都是一字板，突然又出现了这样的一个负面消息。我本 ...

本期编辑 刘雪莹 网红店突然关店：深切痛悔！7天前称将开100家新店 泡泡玛特一新店，开业2小时卖光闭店！黄牛不炒茅台炒Labubu，月入数万元 飞天茅台再跳水！25年原箱和24年散瓶首破2000元，"蛇茅"跌出新低 SFC 21君荐读 据大河报报道，涉事企业曾在5月28日因改变工房用途被临澧县应急管理局处罚。天眼查显 示，2019年，该公司也曾因组装包装工房成品转运不及时，安全通道不畅通受到行政处罚。 据极目新闻报道，该花炮厂负责人徐某某表示， 厂里存了一两万个药饼。 每个药饼里有一克 左右的火药，周边的人都跑开了。 厂里是凌晨3点开始上班，事发时厂里已经快下班了。 来 源 | 2 1财经客户端综合自常德应急管理、澎湃新闻、大河报、极目新闻、天眼查、南方都市报 据附近村民拍摄的视频，爆炸时现场浓烟滚滚并伴随烟花爆炸的声音。 天眼查信息显示，位于临澧县停弦渡镇山洲村的湖南省山洲烟花有限责任公司，成立于2017 年，是一家以从事化学原料和化学制品制造业为主的企业，所属行业为炸药、火工及焰火产 品制造，注册资本1500万元，法人代表是徐合平。 6月16日，湖南常德临澧县应急管理局发布情况通报：2025年6月16日 ...

军贸有望引领军工产能价值重估 20250609 摘要 印尼军方正评估采购中国歼 10 战机，旨在平衡国防预算与性能需求。 此前印尼已购入美制 F16、俄制苏 27/30，并与法国签订阵风战机采购 协议，但阵风在印巴冲突中表现不佳，促使印尼重新考虑军购策略。 在印巴冲突中，巴基斯坦空军使用歼 10 战机击落多架印度战机，包括 法国阵风、俄罗斯苏 30 和米格 29，以及一架印度苍鹭无人机，而中国 制造的歼 10 战机无一受损，实战表现突出，验证了中国四代机的性能。 中国军贸正从出口老式武器转向自主研制高端装备，如红旗-22 等。航 空装备方面，歼 10、歼 20、歼 35 等先进战斗机摆脱知识产权限制， 有望通过出口弥补供给端不足，提升中国在国际军贸市场的地位。 歼 35 具备高性价比、技术自主可控和完全国产化三大优势，与美国 F35 定位相似。F35 已获得大量订单并交付，若歼 35 能达到其一半成 就，将显著提升中航成飞的业绩。 军贸环节中，主机厂可享受显著溢价，改善盈利能力。相比国内销售， 军贸毛利率更高。飞机在过去十年全球武器装备订单中占比最高，主机 厂如飞机雷达制造商将显著受益于军贸溢价。 Q&A 最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The military trade is expected to lead to a revaluation of military industrial capacity and value [1]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for Chinese military equipment due to recent international conflicts, particularly the India-Pakistan conflict, which has showcased the performance of Chinese aircraft [25][29]. - The report emphasizes the transition of China's military trade into a new era characterized by high-quality self-developed equipment, moving away from reliance on imported Soviet-style equipment [46]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Military Trade Opportunities - Indonesia is considering the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets, driven by performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and cost-effectiveness compared to Western counterparts [14]. - Pakistan is also looking to acquire various advanced Chinese military equipment, including J-35 fighter jets and HQ-19 air defense systems, following successful military engagements [19][25]. Section 2: Next-Generation Aircraft - The U.S. has announced the development of the F-47 next-generation fighter jet, which may create competitive pressure for Chinese manufacturers like AVIC [61]. - The report discusses the potential of the J-35 to become a military trade hit, comparable to the F-35, due to its lower cost and advanced capabilities [41]. Section 3: Military Equipment Production and Safety - The report highlights the urgent need for upgrades in the production safety of energetic materials, citing frequent accidents in the industry [96]. - The complexity and risks associated with the production of explosives and ammunition are noted as significant challenges, particularly in the context of increasing demand during conflicts [100][105]. Section 4: Industry Growth and Investment Opportunities - The military trade sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and pricing, with primary manufacturers likely to see significant profit improvements [52]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with popular or potentially popular military models, such as AVIC subsidiaries and missile manufacturers [55].

商用航空发动机自主可控的重要性在于应对国际供应链风险，特别是美国可能 对中国商用航空发动机实施断供。这一事件催化了中国商用航空发动机自主可 控进程的加速。当前，中国商用航空发动机几乎全部依赖进口，包括国产飞机 C919 使用的 LEAP 发动机。如果断供，将对 C919 产生重大影响。因此，自 主可控成为迫切需求。 中国商用航空发动机市场空间有多大？ 根据测算，未来 20 年全球商用航空发动机市场需求约为 13 万亿元人民币，平 均每年 6,500 亿元人民币。中国市场预计总需求为 2.6 万亿元人民币，平均每 年 1,300 亿元人民币。这些数据反映了巨大的市场潜力。此外，维护费用通常 全球火炸药产能扩张面临瓶颈，美欧等国均面临短缺。欧盟推出 ISIP 法 案增加火炸药产能，美国加大对雷福德和霍尔斯顿弹药厂的投入，但扩 产难度大。 商业航天能力兴起推动国防体系建设，国防部门可购买太空发射能力和 商业星群。美国 Spacex 公司的"星链计划"和"星舰"超重型火箭试 验将极大推动低轨民用和军用星座建设。 Q&A 商用航空发动机自主可控的重要性及其加速的原因是什么？ 高于新机费用，使得整个生命周期内的市场规模更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial explosives industry in China is maturing, with significant increases in production capacity and output, driven by growing demand and technological advancements [2][6][10]. Industry Definition and Classification - Industrial explosives, also known as civil explosives, are explosive mixtures primarily composed of oxidizers and fuels, designed based on the principle of oxygen balance [3][4]. - Common types include ammonium nitrate explosives, emulsified explosives, and nitroglycerin explosives, characterized by low cost, simple manufacturing, and reliable application [4]. Current Development Status - The production of industrial explosives in China has increased from 3.54 million tons in 2016 to an expected 4.49 million tons in 2024, with major types including gel emulsified explosives (61.02%), porous ammonium oil explosives (23.15%), and expanded ammonium nitrate explosives (7.17%) [6][8]. - The total sales volume of industrial explosives is projected to reach 4.485 million tons in 2024, with gel emulsified explosives leading at 2.7289 million tons [8]. Industry Trends - The industry is transitioning from extensive growth to a focus on safety, environmental sustainability, and intelligence, with technological innovation and regulatory compliance as key drivers [2][10]. - Future challenges include balancing cost control with technological upgrades and exploring value-added blasting services to address environmental pressures and competition from alternative technologies [2]. Related Companies - Key listed companies in the industrial explosives sector include Yipuli (002096.SZ), Poly United (002037.SZ), Hongda Explosive (002683), and others [3]. - Other relevant companies include Beifang Special Energy, Yunnan Minexplosion, and Longye Chemical [3].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial explosives industry in China is maturing, with significant increases in production capacity and output, driven by expanding applications and demand in various sectors such as mining and infrastructure construction [1][4][19]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - Industrial explosives, also known as civil explosives, are explosive mixtures primarily composed of oxidizers and fuels, designed based on the principle of oxygen balance [2]. - Common types include ammonium nitrate explosives, emulsified explosives, and nitroglycerin explosives, characterized by low cost, simple manufacturing, and reliable application [2]. Group 2: Current Development Status - The production capacity and output of industrial explosives in China have significantly increased, with the domestic output projected to reach 4.4937 million tons in 2024, up from 3.5417 million tons in 2016 [4][6]. - The most widely used types of explosives include gel emulsified explosives, porous ammonium oil explosives, and expanded ammonium nitrate explosives, which together account for 91.35% of total production [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The upstream of the industrial explosives industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as ammonium nitrate, TNT, and sodium nitrate, with ammonium nitrate being the primary raw material [8][10]. - The midstream consists of research and production manufacturers, while the downstream customer base includes engineering blasting units involved in mining and construction [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industrial explosives market in China is fragmented, with numerous companies including Yipuli, Poly United, Hongda Blasting, and Yahua Group leading the industry [12][14]. - Key players have established competitive advantages through integrated operations, technological capabilities, and extensive distribution networks [14][15][17]. Group 5: Industry Development Trends - The industry is transitioning from extensive growth to a focus on safety, environmental sustainability, and smart technology, driven by innovation and regulatory compliance [19]. - Future growth will be supported by mining demand, infrastructure investment, and emerging application scenarios, while companies must balance cost control with technological upgrades [19].

俄乌冲突仍在继续，俄罗斯建造新的大型炸药设施 金十数据5月8日讯，外媒查阅公开的政府文件和卫星图像后发现，俄罗斯正在偏远的西伯利亚进行大规 模工厂扩建，以提高一种强力炸药的产量，这种炸药用于俄乌冲突中的炮弹和其他弹药。莫斯科拥有比 乌克兰更多炮弹，这在俄罗斯在冲突期间的战场胜利中发挥了重要作用，双方主要使用大炮和无人机进 行对抗。三名防务分析人士表示，在乌克兰及其西方盟友加紧生产武器之际，俄罗斯的项目预计将提高 炸药产量，可能有助于大幅增强莫斯科的火力。 ...

Group 1: Youth Empowerment and Innovation - The article emphasizes the importance of youth in driving national progress and innovation, as highlighted by Xi Jinping's encouragement for young people to connect personal efforts with the country's future [1] - Several award-winning young individuals exemplify this spirit through their entrepreneurial and innovative endeavors, addressing contemporary challenges and contributing to various industries [1][2] Group 2: Robotics Industry - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Nanjing Tianchuang Electronics focusing on developing inspection robots for hazardous environments, which are currently underrepresented in the market [2][3] - The company has achieved notable milestones, including the launch of the world's first explosion-proof humanoid robot, indicating a strong demand and potential for expansion in the robotics field [3] Group 3: E-commerce and Rural Development - The transformation of a traditional crystal village into a thriving e-commerce hub demonstrates the potential for rural revitalization through innovative business models and digital platforms [4][5] - The local leader, Zhao Zhonggang, has successfully leveraged social media and e-commerce to enhance local products' visibility, resulting in significant economic growth for the community [5][6] Group 4: Aerospace and Defense - The aerospace sector is highlighted through the work of professionals like Zhang Wenji, who focus on precision welding for critical components, emphasizing the importance of quality and safety in aviation [7][8] - The team at Nanjing University of Science and Technology is innovating in explosive materials, aiming to enhance the performance and safety of defense technologies, which is crucial for national security [10][11] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor materials sector is witnessing breakthroughs, with companies like Suzhou Bozhi Jinduan Technology developing advanced thermal management solutions that reduce costs and enhance performance [12][13] - The founder, Pan Yuanzhi, has successfully transitioned from academic research to industrial application, addressing the critical need for domestic semiconductor materials amid geopolitical tensions [13][14]