农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月02日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector**: For sugar, the international sugar supply is in surplus, leading to a decline in the external sugar market and dragging down Zhengzhou sugar futures prices. With sufficient domestic sugar supply, the price trend is likely downward. For pulp, the fundamentals are weak, lacking positive factors, but there is support for prices as the expectation of supply reduction from overseas producers is rising. For double - offset paper, the cost support weakens, and the price increase is limited. For cotton, the external market continues to put pressure on prices, and the domestic market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [4][7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector**: For apples, the supply - side support remains, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. For jujubes, after the price rebounds from the bottom, it shows a narrow - range shock, and the contradiction between the futures and spot prices is alleviated [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: Apple 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. Jujube 2605 is recommended for short - term buying at low prices, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: Sugar 2605 is recommended for temporary observation, with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5320 - 5350. Pulp 2605 is recommended for light - position long - allocation, with a support range of 5130 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5360 - 5400. Double - offset paper 2605 is recommended for range operation, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300. Cotton 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased significantly. As of February 12, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in the production area remained stable, and the sales situation in the sales area was generally good, but the sales of low - quality gift boxes were slow [19][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week. Due to a dispersed acquisition structure and a cautious market outlook, holders are more willing to sell before the Spring Festival [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production decreased, the US sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio were estimated, and Brazil's sugar production and related indicators changed. The market is currently bearish [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continued to weaken, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [27]. - **Double - Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased slightly, and the increase rate also narrowed. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the industry decreased [28]. - **Cotton Market**: EU clothing imports showed changes in September and October 2025. In January, Cote d'Ivoire's cotton exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and Australian farmers were optimistic about the yield [29]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily price changes, and daily price change rates of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 are provided [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apple, the 5 - 10 spread is 1421, with a positive outlook, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. For jujube, the 5 - 9 spread is - 215, and it is recommended to wait and see. For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread is - 5, with an expected volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see. For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread is - 65, with a weakening trend, and it is recommended to sell at high prices [56]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3][16] Group 2: Core Views - The overall supply of sugar remains relatively abundant, and the price is likely to move downward. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures should be temporarily observed. [3] - Pulp is dragged down by the downstream off - season, but the probability of the pulp futures price falling below 5000 in the short term is low. It is recommended to short - allocate in the short - term. [4] - The cost support for double - offset paper is weakening, and the price increase is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. [5] - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract. [6] - The supply - side support for apples remains, and the price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at lows. [7] - For jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and long - position holders can buy protective put options. [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Apple 2605**: Reduce long positions. The supply - side support remains, but the commodity sentiment is volatile. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500. [16] - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expected yield reduction may be reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is peaking. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. [16] - **Sugar 2605**: Sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in excess, and the domestic supply is in the peak season. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5320. [16] - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions lightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and there is cost support. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5360 - 5400. [16] - **Double - offset paper 2605**: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300. [16] - **Cotton 2605**: Reduce long positions. The long - term bullish expectation remains, but the external price is bottom - seeking. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500. [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 5,635,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons. [17] - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is decreasing. In the sales areas, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the sales are okay with stable prices. [17][18][19] 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation - As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory is decreasing, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. [20] 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment. [23] 3.2.4 Pulp Market - Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resold BSK has fallen, and the import price of NBSK has also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable. [26] 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market - The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase and a narrowing increase rate. The industry's destocking speed has decreased. [27] 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In January, Bangladesh imported about 125,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. As of the week of February 7, the net signed export volume of Egyptian cotton decreased by 52.8% week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased by 94.0% week - on - week. [28] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9500 | - 17 | - 0.18% | | Jujube 2605 | 8670 | - 55 | - 0.63% | | Sugar 2605 | 5278 | 17 | 0.32% | | Pulp 2605 | 5202 | 2 | 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 75 | 0.51% | [29] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 20 | - 630 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15988 | 21 | 1181 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Relevant basis data for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in the form of figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [45][49][50][52][54] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1280 | - 38 | 1909 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 250 | - 10 | 160 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 10 | 3 | - 139 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 115 | 10 | 50 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - The top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [63][64][68][74][82] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3546 | 196 | - 526 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | - 20 | - 193557 | | Cotton | 10686 | 106 | 3951 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility data for apple, sugar, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [91][92][100][105]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约止跌反弹，主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors show complex market trends. In the soft commodity sector, sugar prices are expected to be volatile, pulp prices may adjust, and cotton prices may be weak. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and jujube prices may be affected by weather and consumption factors [3][4][6][7]. - Due to factors such as changes in the supply and demand of underlying products, international market conditions, and policy expectations, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety, including interval operation, option strategies, and short - term empty allocation [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2510: Adopt a bearish approach. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sentiment has ebbed. The support range is 7300 - 7400, and the pressure range is 8200 - 8300 [7][16]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band operation. There are both long and short factors, and the upward pressure on futures prices is significant. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5880 - 5900 [3][16]. - Pulp 2507: Light - position short allocation. The fundamentals change little. After the market sentiment cools down, pulp prices may adjust, but the probability of falling to the June low is low. The support range is 5200 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [4][5][16]. - Cotton 2509: Exit long positions. The previous bearish factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [6][7][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information** - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [17]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 616,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,400 tons. As of July 31, it was 576,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 410,500 tons [17]. - Different institutions have different estimates of apple production. Zhuochuang estimates a slight reduction, while Steel Union estimates a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market** - The price of cold - storage apples in the production area remained stable this week. After the high - price opening of early - maturing apples, the transaction price declined. The sales volume of cold - storage apples in the sales area slightly increased, and the price remained stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The inventory in the Hebei market decreased, and the price of good - quality products increased. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Consulting firm StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The spot price of sugar in China remained stable [22]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported bleached softwood pulp was stable, and the price of bleached hardwood pulp decreased by $10/ton in July compared to June. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry chain changed little [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - India's new - season cotton sowing progress is behind last year, with the sown area as of July 25 being 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% compared to the same period last year [26]. - Pakistan imposed an 18% sales tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2510 closed at 7814, down 101, or 1.28%. - Jujube 2509 closed at 9580, down 60, or 0.62%. - Sugar 2509 closed at 5793, down 11, or 0.19%. - Pulp 2509 closed at 5232, down 94, or 1.76%. - Cotton 2509 closed at 13650, down 105, or 0.76% [27]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period and down 0.25 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 520 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 120 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous period and down 95 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis content is provided, only the figure numbers are given, such as Figure 14 for the basis of Apple 10th month [38]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 67, down 33 from the previous period and up 10 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1115, down 1165 from the previous period and down 775 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 138, unchanged from the previous period and down 193 year - on - year, expected to be weak within a range, and the recommended strategy is to go long on 01 and short on 09 [47]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation Only the figure numbers for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [56][58][63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple's warehouse receipt volume is 0, unchanged from the previous period and year - on - year. - Jujube's warehouse receipt volume is 8739, unchanged from the previous period and down 2131 year - on - year. - Sugar's warehouse receipt volume is 19473, down 47 from the previous period and up 3357 year - on - year. - Pulp's warehouse receipt volume is 254637, down 340 from the previous period and down 246468 year - on - year. - Cotton's warehouse receipt volume is 8940, down 115 from the previous period and down 2400 year - on - year [77]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data Only the figure numbers for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [79][81][82].