1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the supply of white sugar is relatively sufficient, but the fundamentals are expected to improve, and Zhengzhou sugar may bottom out and rebound. For pulp, the improvement of supply - demand for bleached softwood pulp is limited, and the upside potential is cautiously viewed. For double - offset paper, it is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and the rebound space is limited. For cotton, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the futures price is expected to enter a shock consolidation phase. For the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly in a high - level range, and jujube prices may bottom - out and then fluctuate in a narrow range [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy Recommendations** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The supply - side support remains, but the continuous driving force is slightly insufficient. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendations** - White Sugar 2605: Hold long positions. The sugar production in India and Thailand is lower than expected, and the price of foreign sugar has risen. The domestic southern sugar mills are starting to reduce production, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. The support range is 5230 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5550 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The increase in the overseas price of hardwood pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement of the supply - demand for bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [19]. - Double - Offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectations remain, and the medium - term support has not changed. However, the upward trend of the foreign price has not been confirmed, and the domestic - foreign price difference restricts the domestic price. In the short term, the futures price may continue to oscillate strongly. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,800 tons. As of February 26, 2026, it was 4.9448 million tons, a decrease of 370,300 tons compared with before the Spring Festival and a year - on - year decrease of 308,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage is stable, and there are some transactions. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, the number of merchants has increased, and they mainly purchase high - quality goods. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is normal, the sales are flat, and the price is stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory of sample points has decreased month - on - month [23]. - **White Sugar Market**: As of February 28, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 260.896 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.119 million tons; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.625 million tons; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13%. The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption is expected to be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus is expected to be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of February 24, the total position of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,203,496 contracts, a decrease of 43,866 contracts from the previous week. The speculative long position was 182,794 contracts, an increase of 3664 contracts from the previous week; the speculative short position was 440,657 contracts, a decrease of 4297 contracts from the previous week; the speculative net short position was 257,863 contracts, a decrease of 7961 contracts from the previous week. As of now, 2 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - crushing season, 42 less than the same period last year; the sugar - crushing capacity is 10,000 tons per day, 365,500 tons per day less than the same period last year [25]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The prices of imported NBSK spot and resale BSK have declined. The prices of NBSK produced in Canada and Northern Europe remain stable at $690 - 700 per ton and $680 - 690 per ton respectively, and the median price of NBSK remains at $690 per ton [27]. - **Double - Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [28]. - **Cotton Market**: In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month. The import value was 324.278 billion yen (equivalent to $1.78 billion), a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45%. In December 2026, the clothing import volume was 80,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.99% and a month - on - month increase of 10.01%. In January, Argentina exported 7409 tons of cotton, a significant increase compared with the same period last year (1737 tons) and a 29.1% decrease compared with the previous month (10,000 tons). As of March 1, 2026, 1099 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, with an inspection quantity of 33,138,040 bales and an inspection weight of 7.4803 million tons [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9896 | 136 | 1.39% | | Jujube 2605 | 8840 | 55 | 0.63% | | White Sugar 2605 | 5345 | 21 | 0.39% | | Pulp 2605 | 5252 | 6 | 0.11% | | Cotton 2605 | 15225 | - 170 | - 1.10% | [30] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | White Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5350 | 0 | - 700 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5300 | - 30 | - 1280 | | Double - Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16633 | 2 | 1686 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1278 | - 31 | 1920 | Oscillating strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 270 | 5 | 140 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | White Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 8 | 3 | - 140 | Oscillating | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 80 | - 80 | 95 | Oscillating weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation - Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3869 | 0 | - 816 | | White Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 10003 | | Pulp | 153011 | 0 | - 203702 | | Cotton | 11327 | 155 | 4077 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data - **Apple Option Data**: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content - **White Sugar Option Data**: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content - **Cotton Option Data**: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector**: For sugar, the international sugar supply is in surplus, leading to a decline in the external sugar market and dragging down Zhengzhou sugar futures prices. With sufficient domestic sugar supply, the price trend is likely downward. For pulp, the fundamentals are weak, lacking positive factors, but there is support for prices as the expectation of supply reduction from overseas producers is rising. For double - offset paper, the cost support weakens, and the price increase is limited. For cotton, the external market continues to put pressure on prices, and the domestic market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [4][7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector**: For apples, the supply - side support remains, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. For jujubes, after the price rebounds from the bottom, it shows a narrow - range shock, and the contradiction between the futures and spot prices is alleviated [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: Apple 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. Jujube 2605 is recommended for short - term buying at low prices, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: Sugar 2605 is recommended for temporary observation, with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5320 - 5350. Pulp 2605 is recommended for light - position long - allocation, with a support range of 5130 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5360 - 5400. Double - offset paper 2605 is recommended for range operation, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300. Cotton 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased significantly. As of February 12, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in the production area remained stable, and the sales situation in the sales area was generally good, but the sales of low - quality gift boxes were slow [19][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week. Due to a dispersed acquisition structure and a cautious market outlook, holders are more willing to sell before the Spring Festival [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production decreased, the US sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio were estimated, and Brazil's sugar production and related indicators changed. The market is currently bearish [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continued to weaken, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [27]. - **Double - Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased slightly, and the increase rate also narrowed. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the industry decreased [28]. - **Cotton Market**: EU clothing imports showed changes in September and October 2025. In January, Cote d'Ivoire's cotton exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and Australian farmers were optimistic about the yield [29]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices, daily price changes, and daily price change rates of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 are provided [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apple, the 5 - 10 spread is 1421, with a positive outlook, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. For jujube, the 5 - 9 spread is - 215, and it is recommended to wait and see. For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread is - 5, with an expected volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see. For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread is - 65, with a weakening trend, and it is recommended to sell at high prices [56]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][3][16] Group 2: Core Views - The overall supply of sugar remains relatively abundant, and the price is likely to move downward. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures should be temporarily observed. [3] - Pulp is dragged down by the downstream off - season, but the probability of the pulp futures price falling below 5000 in the short term is low. It is recommended to short - allocate in the short - term. [4] - The cost support for double - offset paper is weakening, and the price increase is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. [5] - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract. [6] - The supply - side support for apples remains, and the price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at lows. [7] - For jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and long - position holders can buy protective put options. [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Apple 2605**: Reduce long positions. The supply - side support remains, but the commodity sentiment is volatile. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500. [16] - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expected yield reduction may be reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is peaking. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. [16] - **Sugar 2605**: Sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in excess, and the domestic supply is in the peak season. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5320. [16] - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions lightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and there is cost support. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5360 - 5400. [16] - **Double - offset paper 2605**: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300. [16] - **Cotton 2605**: Reduce long positions. The long - term bullish expectation remains, but the external price is bottom - seeking. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500. [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market Situation - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 5,635,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons. [17] - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is decreasing. In the sales areas, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the sales are okay with stable prices. [17][18][19] 3.2.2 Jujube Market Situation - As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory is decreasing, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. [20] 3.2.3 Sugar Market Situation - From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment. [23] 3.2.4 Pulp Market - Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resold BSK has fallen, and the import price of NBSK has also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable. [26] 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market - The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase and a narrowing increase rate. The industry's destocking speed has decreased. [27] 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In January, Bangladesh imported about 125,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. As of the week of February 7, the net signed export volume of Egyptian cotton decreased by 52.8% week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased by 94.0% week - on - week. [28] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9500 | - 17 | - 0.18% | | Jujube 2605 | 8670 | - 55 | - 0.63% | | Sugar 2605 | 5278 | 17 | 0.32% | | Pulp 2605 | 5202 | 2 | 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 75 | 0.51% | [29] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 20 | - 630 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15988 | 21 | 1181 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Relevant basis data for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in the form of figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [45][49][50][52][54] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1280 | - 38 | 1909 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 250 | - 10 | 160 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 10 | 3 | - 139 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 115 | 10 | 50 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - The top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [63][64][68][74][82] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3546 | 196 | - 526 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | - 20 | - 193557 | | Cotton | 10686 | 106 | 3951 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility data for apple, sugar, and cotton are presented in figures, but no specific numerical summaries are provided in the text. [91][92][100][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: China's sugar supply is abundant and prices are low. In November, sugar imports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, which temporarily boosted domestic sugar prices. However, India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year and it is actively seeking exports. Domestic sugar mills' start - up has increased, with an oversupply in the international market and an increasing domestic supply, so the bearish drivers continue [4]. - **Pulp**: Pulp's spot and futures price fluctuations have narrowed recently, and the basis is not high. The previous price increase was due to the expected reduction in bleached softwood pulp supply caused by Lion brand's production cut and the weakening of delivery pressure after the gradual reduction of BCTMP warehouse receipts and the increase in new warehouse receipt costs. Recently, the supply - side bullish factors have weakened. In reality, the global bleached softwood pulp is not in short supply, and inventories in overseas producers, domestic ports, and European ports are not low. The demand for pulp in China is stable, and the improvement in Europe and the US is not obvious. The prices of domestic finished paper have not generally increased, and paper mills' profits are low, so the short - term ability to accept high - priced pulp may be weak. It is expected that next year, the price center will gradually rise under the influence of factors such as the slowdown in hardwood pulp production growth, the possible recovery of demand in Europe and the US, and the expected reduction in new warehouse receipts and bleached softwood pulp supply. For now, without further realization of supply - reduction expectations or obvious follow - up price increases in finished paper, it may be difficult to form a trend - upward market driven by pure expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to supply - side news, with prices moving in a range [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price of double - offset paper has not fluctuated much since October. The paper mill's operating rate has continued to rise, and the delivery of publication orders has increased the paper mill's production enthusiasm, with inventory also increasing and reaching a high this year. With sufficient production capacity, a simple seasonal improvement in demand is difficult to bring about an obvious improvement in supply and demand, and policy adjustment of supply is still needed. Recently, the price of raw material wood pulp has fluctuated greatly, and the double - offset paper futures price has fluctuated accordingly. With the spot price stable, the futures price may fluctuate with the basis, and there is support on the downside recently [5]. - **Cotton**: In the overseas market, there is little change, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation for global and US cotton and weak consumption expectations, and futures prices continue to operate at a low level. In the domestic market, the commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly month - on - month, reflecting the gradual release of the pressure of the new season's listing. The short - term supply is abundant, while the year - on - year increase is not obvious, reflecting limited long - term pressure. Currently, the market is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Recently, the significant increase in the price of short - fiber substitutes has provided associated support, and short - term futures prices may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. - **Apples**: Fundamentally, the apple 05 contract is in a situation with both upward pressure and downward support. The pressure mainly comes from the low acceptance of high prices during the off - season of consumption, while the support mainly comes from the cost of warehouse receipts. With low inventory and a poor high - quality fruit rate, the cost of warehouse receipts is supported. After the annual supply is realized, the driving force for continuous price increases decreases, and the market focus shifts to delivery games and consumption expectations. Recently, market concerns about consumption have increased, and futures prices have shown a high - level decline. However, the cost of warehouse receipts still limits the continuous decline space of futures prices, and overall, a high - level range is expected [8]. - **Jujubes**: On Tuesday, jujube futures prices decreased with increasing positions, and funds gradually completed the transfer to the 2605 contract. The phased decline of the agricultural product index slowed down. Jujube warehouse receipts were successively registered and increased to 1092 lots, a week - on - week increase of 209 lots and a year - on - year increase of 612 lots. Recently, jujube futures prices failed to rebound after a low - position reduction and oscillation, and short - sellers concentrated on taking profits and left the market. Near - month futures prices oscillated at a low level, and the basis between futures and spot prices gradually returned. Since the fourth quarter, the jujube 2601 contract has opened and closed lower, and after a continuous decline, it oscillated in a narrow range. The jujube index increased positions and broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is gradually coming to an end, and the market's expectation of production reduction has cooled down. After the jujube 2601 contract failed to break through, it turned to a sharp decline, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts quickly converged. Currently, the removal speed of jujube spot inventory has slowed down, new jujubes have been harvested, and dried - fruit consumption is gradually transitioning to the seasonal peak. In the sales area market, the price of high - quality goods is stable, while the price of ordinary goods is weak. This week, the average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is about 10.26 yuan/kg, and that of first - grade jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg. The standard product is equivalent to about 9140 yuan/ton on the futures market, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The basis of the 2601 contract is about 200, and the premium of the 01 contract futures price over the spot has returned. Attention should be paid to the price trend of new jujubes [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy Recommendations**: For the apple 2605 contract, use an interval trading strategy. The new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak value have decreased year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumption growth drivers also increases the pressure. Futures prices may fluctuate in a high - level range, with a support interval of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure interval of 9700 - 9800. For the jujube 2605 contract, consider short - term buying at low prices. The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, with a support interval of 9000 - 9300 and a pressure interval of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendations**: For the sugar 2605 contract, temporarily wait and see. Indian sugar mills' start - up has increased, and domestic new sugar has been listed, with an increasing supply. The significant reduction in imported sugar has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent. The support interval is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure interval is 5200 - 5230. For the pulp 2605 contract, take a long - biased interval strategy. The futures price has risen above the price of the main spot delivery product, increasing the potential delivery pressure. With limited improvement in the fundamentals, pulp prices may correct, but there is support on the downside. The support interval is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, temporarily wait and see. Raw material price fluctuations affect double - offset paper prices from the cost side, but with the spot price stable, the double - offset paper futures price may maintain an interval operation. The support interval is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure interval is 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, hold long positions cautiously. The overseas market is operating at a low level, and the domestic market has positive expectations. Short - term futures prices may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. The support interval is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure interval is 14400 - 14500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 17, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 7.5298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 55,700 tons, and the sales were slower than the same period last year. As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 7.127 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 920,600 tons. In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock was stable, with small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods being the main trading items, and large - sized fruits having less trading volume. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and traders mainly packed their own goods for the market. In the sales area, the arrival volume was sufficient, the sales were smooth, and the price was stable [19][20]. - **Jujube Market**: As of last week's agricultural product research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 16,108 tons, a week - on - week increase of 318 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 34.68%. The procurement in Xinjiang is entering the final stage, with some merchants still actively looking for suitable goods in the production area, and some of the purchased goods are temporarily stored in dry warehouses in Xinjiang, waiting for shipment [21]. - **Sugar Market**: In November 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons, remaining at a medium level in the same period of the past five years. From January to November 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 1.1191 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0671 million tons, with a significant decrease. As of November 30 in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 229,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,700 tons. As of December 20 in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3675 million tons, a decrease of 14.9%. The sugar - cane sugar content was 11.36%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.12%. The sugar - production rate was 8.183%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.062%. The sugar - production volume was 639,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,200 tons, a decrease of 14.25%. As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 33 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, an increase of 3 compared with the same period last year, with an estimated sugar - cane crushing capacity of 121,700 tons per day, an increase of 11,100 tons per day compared with the same period last year. In Guangxi, 71 sugar mills have started production, a decrease of 3 compared with the same period last year, with a designed sugar - cane crushing capacity of 571,500 tons per day, a decrease of 11,000 tons per day compared with the same period last year [24]. - **Pulp Market**: In November 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%, with a cumulative import volume of 32.925 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the volume exported to China was 636,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the month - on - month increase this week narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. Social demand is still weak, and at the end of the year, dealers are cautious about purchasing. With the expectation of publication order delivery, the operating rate of some paper enterprises has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate of the double - offset paper industry is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the month - on - month increase this week expanded by 0.23 percentage points [27]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.09%. The export amount was 96 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.38%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 30.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.08%. The cumulative export amount was 1.164 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. In November 2025, China's cotton - yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons, an increase of about 25%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume of cotton yarn was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. As of December 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,800 tons and an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the end of last month. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 41.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 61.9%, and there was no new export in that month [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9230, with a daily increase of 81 and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 8750, with a daily decrease of 70 and a daily decrease rate of 0.79%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5155, with a daily increase of 29 and a daily increase rate of 0.57%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5620, with a daily decrease of 2 and a daily decrease rate of 0.04%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14140, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 0.50% [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. The spot price of sugar was 5270 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan/ton. The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton was 15213 yuan/ton, a

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors show complex market trends. In the soft commodity sector, sugar prices are expected to be volatile, pulp prices may adjust, and cotton prices may be weak. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and jujube prices may be affected by weather and consumption factors [3][4][6][7]. - Due to factors such as changes in the supply and demand of underlying products, international market conditions, and policy expectations, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety, including interval operation, option strategies, and short - term empty allocation [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2510: Adopt a bearish approach. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sentiment has ebbed. The support range is 7300 - 7400, and the pressure range is 8200 - 8300 [7][16]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band operation. There are both long and short factors, and the upward pressure on futures prices is significant. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5880 - 5900 [3][16]. - Pulp 2507: Light - position short allocation. The fundamentals change little. After the market sentiment cools down, pulp prices may adjust, but the probability of falling to the June low is low. The support range is 5200 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [4][5][16]. - Cotton 2509: Exit long positions. The previous bearish factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [6][7][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information** - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [17]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 616,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,400 tons. As of July 31, it was 576,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 410,500 tons [17]. - Different institutions have different estimates of apple production. Zhuochuang estimates a slight reduction, while Steel Union estimates a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market** - The price of cold - storage apples in the production area remained stable this week. After the high - price opening of early - maturing apples, the transaction price declined. The sales volume of cold - storage apples in the sales area slightly increased, and the price remained stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The inventory in the Hebei market decreased, and the price of good - quality products increased. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Consulting firm StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The spot price of sugar in China remained stable [22]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported bleached softwood pulp was stable, and the price of bleached hardwood pulp decreased by $10/ton in July compared to June. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry chain changed little [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - India's new - season cotton sowing progress is behind last year, with the sown area as of July 25 being 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% compared to the same period last year [26]. - Pakistan imposed an 18% sales tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2510 closed at 7814, down 101, or 1.28%. - Jujube 2509 closed at 9580, down 60, or 0.62%. - Sugar 2509 closed at 5793, down 11, or 0.19%. - Pulp 2509 closed at 5232, down 94, or 1.76%. - Cotton 2509 closed at 13650, down 105, or 0.76% [27]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period and down 0.25 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 520 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 120 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous period and down 95 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis content is provided, only the figure numbers are given, such as Figure 14 for the basis of Apple 10th month [38]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 67, down 33 from the previous period and up 10 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1115, down 1165 from the previous period and down 775 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 138, unchanged from the previous period and down 193 year - on - year, expected to be weak within a range, and the recommended strategy is to go long on 01 and short on 09 [47]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation Only the figure numbers for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [56][58][63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple's warehouse receipt volume is 0, unchanged from the previous period and year - on - year. - Jujube's warehouse receipt volume is 8739, unchanged from the previous period and down 2131 year - on - year. - Sugar's warehouse receipt volume is 19473, down 47 from the previous period and up 3357 year - on - year. - Pulp's warehouse receipt volume is 254637, down 340 from the previous period and down 246468 year - on - year. - Cotton's warehouse receipt volume is 8940, down 115 from the previous period and down 2400 year - on - year [77]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data Only the figure numbers for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [79][81][82].