电气机械及通用设备制造业
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9月PMI数据点评:年内扩内需政策或仍值得期待
Bank of China Securities· 2025-10-16 01:29
Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index stands at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%[3] - The production index rose to 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[3] Price and Demand Dynamics - The major raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.2%, despite a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has supported the prices in certain manufacturing sub-sectors, with the specialized equipment manufacturing price index rising by 2.2 percentage points[2] - However, the overall demand remains weak, as evidenced by declines in finished goods inventory and new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Overview - The non-manufacturing PMI for September is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stagnation at the threshold level[4] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index improved to 49.8%, up 1.0 percentage points[10] - The employment index in the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.0%, reflecting a contraction with a month-on-month decline of 0.6 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Performance - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, with a new orders index of 42.2%, indicating continued contraction despite a slight month-on-month improvement[14] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, showing a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion zone[14] - Notably, the metal products and automotive manufacturing sectors have shown significant month-on-month improvements in their economic performance[16]
8月PMI数据点评:“反内卷”政策或是制造业价格提振的主要因素
Bank of China Securities· 2025-09-01 11:08
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In August, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating a marginal recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index also increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%[4] - The production index reached 50.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, indicating active manufacturing activities[4] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The main raw materials purchase price index and the factory price index increased by 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, marking three consecutive months of recovery[7] - The "anti-involution" policy has significantly boosted the factory price index in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, with indices rising above the threshold line[2] - However, demand weakness may hinder overall performance in the manufacturing supply chain, as evidenced by a decline in new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, remaining in the expansion zone[9] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand[9] - The construction sector's PMI fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, indicating a contraction in construction activity[13]