Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with expected oscillatory trends for both today [4][8] - The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while major risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [7][10] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The demand for agricultural films has slightly recovered but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -17, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk oscillates. The demand for agricultural films recovers but is still weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in macro - data. There is new PP production capacity, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 26, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is neutral [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net long, turning long, showing a bullish signal [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk oscillates. With new production capacity and improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [8] - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [9] Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: Provides price and price change data for LLDPE and PP in the spot and futures markets, as well as inventory data [11] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Presents historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, etc., and expected capacity data for 2025 [16][18] - **Charts**: Displays multiple charts related to polyolefins, such as price - basis charts, inventory charts, production cash - flow charts, and internal - external price difference charts [12][14][19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃周报 2025-8-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 期现走势 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 6600 7100 7600 8100 8600 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 坐标轴标题 L期现价格及基差 L基差 L主力收盘 L现货标准品 • 本周概要： • 聚烯烃周评：上周L01上涨0.39%，收于7380，合计减仓约22000张。PP01下跌0.65%收于7038，合 计增仓约45000张。技术上看，近期L、PP主力合约在20日均线附 ...