Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Methanol - Market is currently following a "weak reality" trading logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, and opportunities for MTO profit contraction in the 05 contract can be focused on later [3]. Polyester - PX supply is generally stable, but demand may be affected by potential PTA production cuts. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions on rallies and short - selling above 6800, as well as attempting to narrow the PX - SC spread. - PTA is expected to have a slightly loose supply - demand situation with a small inventory build - up. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions and short - selling on rallies, and treating TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol is expected to face high inventory build - up in November - December, with significant upward pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and reverse - spreading EG1 - 5 on rallies. - Short - fiber supply is relatively high in the short term, but demand may weaken seasonally. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies are similar to PTA, with the focus on narrowing the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle - chip supply and demand remain in a loose pattern, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory build - up period. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [6]. Polyolefins - PP supply increase is slowing down due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has improved, but there is still significant pressure with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse - spreading [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support. The price is expected to be weak and stable, and the overall trend is bearish. - PVC supply - demand remains in an oversupply situation, with continuous supply pressure from new capacity and weak demand in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and the trading strategy is to short on rebounds [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. The price driving force is weak, but attention should be paid to device changes due to low valuation. - Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, with overall stable demand. The cost support is weakening, and the price driving force is limited. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The Taicang basis was - 30, up 25%. Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang showed different changes, with the Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang regional spreads also changing [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641%, up 2.75%; port inventory was 151.7 million tons, up 0.71%; social inventory was 190.4%, up 1.11% [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas enterprise operating rate was 70.7%, down 2.68%. Downstream, the MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices showed different changes. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also had various fluctuations, such as POY150/48 cash flow down 31.2% [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 56.2 million tons, up 7.5%. The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.7%, up 0.3%. Different products' operating rates also showed different trends [6]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805 on November 6, down 0.13%; L2605 closed at 6886, down 0.22%. PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6592, down 0.20%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; social inventory was 52.7 million tons, down 3.30%. PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81%; trader inventory was 22.9 million tons, up 3.91%. PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged; Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged. The price of PVC in East China showed a decline [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC also had different changes [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed. Pure benzene and styrene prices also showed different trends, such as pure benzene East China spot price down 0.4% [12]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4%; styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.93 million tons, down 7.1%. The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries also had various changes [12].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report" and dated August 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance Summary - Last week, L01 rose 0.39% to close at 7380 with a reduction of about 22,000 contracts in positions PP01 fell 0.65% to close at 7038 with an increase of about 45,000 contracts in positions [5] - Technically, recent L and PP main contracts are trading near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5] - According to the main positions in Dayue's five - major indicators, the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for recent L and PP are both bearish [5] - The basis of the L main contract is - 80, and that of the PP main contract is - 8, both main contracts are at a premium [5] Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% On August 20, Bloomberg reported that a comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity, expected to be introduced in September [5] - Supply and demand: The overall demand for PE agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film - making start - up rate is low PP downstream is gradually moving into the peak season, with a slight improvement in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc [5] - Inventory: The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high [5] Forecast - It is expected that the L and PP main contracts will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend this week [5] Market Data Tables Futures and Spot Market Data | Contract | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Change Rate | Spot Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Production Type | Latest Profit | Weekly Profit Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L01 | 7380 | 29 | 0.39% | L Delivery Goods | 7300 | 50 | L Oil - based | - 177 | - 26 | | L05 | 7392 | 46 | 0.62% | PE Comprehensive Warehouse | 564 | 59 | L Coal - based | 805 | - 158 | | L09 | 7321 | 15 | 0.20% | PE Social Inventory | 557 | - 12 | | | | | PP01 | 7038 | - 46 | - 0.65% | PP Delivery Goods | 7030 | - 70 | PP Oil - based | - 154 | - 12 | | PP05 | 7059 | - 21 | - 0.30% | PP Comprehensive Warehouse | 572 | - 15 | PP Coal - based | 362 | - 55 | | PP09 | 6993 | - 65 | - 0.93% | PP Social Inventory | 261 | - 10 | PDH | - 458 | - 48 | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | - 2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [16] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [18]