凯迪股份 20260108 摘要 凯迪股份专注于线性驱动系统，产品线覆盖电动家居、升降办公桌、医 疗看护设备及汽车电动尾门等领域，技术积累深厚，具备较强的市场竞 争力。公司通过自制核心部件和投资相关企业，增强了在机器人领域的 产业链整合能力。 公司疫情期间业绩表现出色，但近年来受欧洲和北美经济放缓影响，营 收和利润有所下滑。市场竞争加剧导致毛利率下降，但目前已趋于稳定。 随着海外产能逐步投入，毛利率有望回升。 电动尾门市场具有爆发性增长潜力，目前主要在中高端汽车上配备，渗 透率有待提升。预计 2030 年全球市场规模将增至 30 亿美元，复合年 增长率达 80%。凯迪股份已为蔚来、奇瑞等客户提供产品。 全球新驱动市场规模约为 100 亿美元，复合年增长率约为 3%，中国增 速接近 7%至 8%。主要应用于智能家居、医疗器械等领域。国内企业在 全球市占率不到 25%，但成本优势明显，有望逐步开拓中高端应用。 电动车升降办公桌市场受益于远程办公普及，预计 2024 年至 2032 年 全球市场规模将从 500 亿美元增至 1,000 亿美元，复合年增长率为 13%，中国接近 20%。 Q&A 凯迪股份在机器人领域 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Kedi Co., Ltd. (stock code: sh605288) reached its daily limit with a price of 122.98 yuan, reflecting a 10% increase and a total market value of 8.691 billion yuan on September 18, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Kedi Co., Ltd. implemented a comprehensive equity incentive plan covering 46 core employees, including 3 executives, which is expected to significantly bind talent and contribute to the company's long-term stable development [2] - The company completed a board restructuring and revised its articles of association, enhancing its governance structure and boosting market confidence [2] - The semi-annual report indicated a revenue growth of 5.64% year-on-year, maintaining an expansion trend in its main business, despite a significant decline in net profit, which sends a positive signal to the market [2] - Kedi Co., Ltd. is engaged in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with products spanning smart home and smart office sectors, indicating further expansion potential due to increasing market demand [2] - On the market performance front, there was capital inflow into related sectors such as smart home and linear drive concepts, leading to a synergistic effect that propelled Kedi Co., Ltd.'s stock price to its limit [2] - Although specific technical indicators were not obtained, significant capital inflow on that day likely contributed to the stock price surge [2] - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders changed by 3.75%, with an average of 10,600 circulating A-shares per shareholder, indicating that changes in shareholder structure may also impact stock price trends [2]

Core Insights - The company has over 30 years of experience in linear drive systems and possesses an integrated self-owned industrial chain [1] - The company is expanding its overseas bases to enhance global supply capabilities, with a focus on the robotics sector for new growth opportunities [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1992 and primarily produces linear drive systems, which include electric push rods, controllers, electrical boxes, and other components, applicable in smart homes, smart offices, healthcare, and automotive sectors [1] - The company has a strong flexible manufacturing system that integrates mold development, injection molding, processing, manufacturing, assembly, and testing, featuring a fully self-owned industrial chain including ABB robotic welding and production of lead screws and worm gears [1] - The company has a high degree of product customization and strong R&D capabilities, recognized as a "High-tech Enterprise" and holding numerous patents, including 52 invention patents, 283 utility model patents, and 145 design patents as of the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Global Expansion and New Growth Areas - The company began its globalization efforts in September 2010 by establishing an office in the United States and later set up its first Southeast Asian production base in Vietnam in 2018, focusing on the production and sales of linear drive systems [2] - The first and second phases of the Vietnam factory are in operation, with the third phase planned to start, which is expected to generate annual sales revenue of $55.8 million upon full production [2] - The company is venturing into the robotics field by reorganizing its R&D capabilities in components such as motors, controls, and transmission, and has made a 10% investment in Jiangsu Huixing Power, which specializes in smart robotics and AI software and hardware [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.536 billion, 1.820 billion, and 2.142 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 95 million, 130 million, and 187 million yuan, leading to PE ratios of 53.37, 38.96, and 26.98 times [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Mechanical and Export Industry - **Companies**: - Spring Wind Power (春风动力) - Jiechang Drive (捷昌驱动) - Zhejiang Dingli (浙江鼎力) - Haomai Technology (豪迈科技) - Nuo Wei Co., Ltd. (纽威股份) Key Points and Arguments Spring Wind Power - Significant contribution from four-wheeled vehicle sales in the U.S., accounting for approximately 20% of total revenue and contributing about 30% to gross profit [1][2] - Implemented measures to mitigate tariff risks, including: - Surge exports starting Q4 2024 to capture market share before tariff increases [4] - Prepared six months of inventory to ensure supply chain stability [4] - Increased production capacity in Mexico, currently producing 1,000 to 2,000 units monthly, with plans to raise annual capacity to 60,000 to 70,000 units if tariffs escalate [5][2] - Long-term growth driven by expansion in North American four-wheeled vehicle business and global market share in large-displacement motorcycles [3] Jiechang Drive - Exposure to U.S. tariffs primarily in linear drive products, with less than 10% of revenue directly affected [2][3] - Core valuation driven by humanoid robot business, particularly linear actuators and dexterous motor modules [6] - Measures taken to counter tariff impacts include: - Overseas production in Malaysia and the U.S. [6] - Price negotiations with clients to offset additional costs from tariffs [6] - Expected profit for 2025 is projected between 450 million to 480 million yuan, with a valuation of 34 times PE [3] Zhejiang Dingli - As a leading aerial work platform company, it faced significant impacts from U.S.-China tariffs, with stock prices still below pre-tariff levels despite recent recoveries [1][9] - Primarily domestic production with no current plans for overseas factories, focusing on increasing shipments to the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [1][11] - The company’s U.S. revenue is projected to be around 30% in 2024, but net profit from the U.S. is expected to be less than 10% due to tariffs and operational costs [9] Hardware Tools Industry - The hardware tools sector has the highest exposure to the U.S. market within the mechanical sector, with 80% of global demand concentrated in Europe and the U.S. [14] - Chinese companies primarily act as OEMs, with limited penetration into the U.S. market [14] - Recent shifts in production capacity towards Southeast Asia due to tariff policies, with leading companies likely to capture market share from smaller manufacturers [15] Tariff Policy Impacts - Tariff changes have led to a shift in production strategies, with companies moving equipment from China to Southeast Asia rather than merely expanding existing facilities [15] - Potential for price increases in the U.S. market due to inventory depletion, which may suppress demand [15] - ODM businesses are relocating to Southeast Asia, while OBM businesses face challenges in price transmission due to tariffs [16][17] European Market Dynamics - Improved geopolitical relations between China and Europe may enhance market demand for European exports [20][21] - European countries are expected to increase military and infrastructure spending, potentially boosting demand for exports [21][22] - Companies like Juxing Technology and Zhejiang Dingli have significant revenue from Europe, indicating a growing importance of the European market in the context of U.S.-China trade relations [22] Other Important Insights - Increasing challenges for companies establishing factories in Mexico due to local labor requirements and production efficiency issues [18] - The trend of companies preferring Southeast Asia over the U.S. or Mexico for new factories is driven by cost considerations and geopolitical risks [19] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of export chains as tariff conditions improve [20][22]