凯迪股份 20260108 摘要 凯迪股份专注于线性驱动系统，产品线覆盖电动家居、升降办公桌、医 疗看护设备及汽车电动尾门等领域，技术积累深厚，具备较强的市场竞 争力。公司通过自制核心部件和投资相关企业，增强了在机器人领域的 产业链整合能力。 公司疫情期间业绩表现出色，但近年来受欧洲和北美经济放缓影响，营 收和利润有所下滑。市场竞争加剧导致毛利率下降，但目前已趋于稳定。 随着海外产能逐步投入，毛利率有望回升。 电动尾门市场具有爆发性增长潜力，目前主要在中高端汽车上配备，渗 透率有待提升。预计 2030 年全球市场规模将增至 30 亿美元，复合年 增长率达 80%。凯迪股份已为蔚来、奇瑞等客户提供产品。 全球新驱动市场规模约为 100 亿美元，复合年增长率约为 3%，中国增 速接近 7%至 8%。主要应用于智能家居、医疗器械等领域。国内企业在 全球市占率不到 25%，但成本优势明显，有望逐步开拓中高端应用。 电动车升降办公桌市场受益于远程办公普及，预计 2024 年至 2032 年 全球市场规模将从 500 亿美元增至 1,000 亿美元，复合年增长率为 13%，中国接近 20%。 Q&A 凯迪股份在机器人领域 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has been focused on linear drive systems for over 30 years and has achieved significant global expansion, becoming a leading player in the linear drive market with over 30% market share in electric sofa push rods [3][12]. - The linear drive market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected global market size of approximately $8.694 billion in 2025, reaching $10.38 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2026 to 2032 [4][50]. - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its strong technical capabilities in electromechanical integration [5][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Company in Linear Drives - The company has established itself as a leader in the linear drive industry, with a focus on diverse application scenarios including smart homes, medical care, and automotive components [3][12]. - The company has a significant presence in North America and Europe, with a notable market share in electric sofa push rods [3][12]. 2. Broad Market Prospects for Linear Drives - The linear drive market is expanding into various fields, driven by global consumption upgrades and technological advancements [4][50]. - The smart home market is projected to grow to $173 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 8.9% from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - The smart office market is expected to reach $51.63 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.6% until 2029 [63]. 3. Strong Electromechanical Integration Capabilities - The company has developed a comprehensive vertical integration manufacturing system, allowing for in-house production of key components [5][94]. - The company is focusing on core motor technology and has made strategic investments in related fields such as gear reducers and joint modules [7][94]. 4. Profit Forecast and Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.378 billion, 1.530 billion, and 1.714 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.55 billion, 0.89 billion, and 1.11 billion yuan [6][8]. - The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability as overseas production capacity utilization increases and tariff impacts diminish [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kaidi Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase of 6.00% on November 21, with a trading volume of 353 million yuan and a market capitalization of 6.541 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Kaidi Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of automotive components in China, focusing on high-quality products for both traditional and new energy vehicles [2] - The company has a strong presence in the photovoltaic sector, with customized linear drive structures for solar support frames, although sales revenue from solar projects has not yet been realized [2][3] - The company’s smart medical division offers a range of medical equipment, including medical beds and electric wheelchairs, aiming to become a globally recognized manufacturer in the smart medical device sector [3] - The smart home division emphasizes innovation in product development, covering smart furniture and integrated home automation systems [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period ending September 2025, Kaidi Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 926 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.67%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 59.64% to 28.69 million yuan [7] - The company has a significant overseas revenue contribution, accounting for 56.46% of total revenue, benefiting from the depreciation of the Chinese yuan [3] Group 3: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of November 10, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 23.09% to 5,298, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 30.03% to 13,250 shares [7] - The stock has seen a net inflow of 28.4 million yuan from major investors, indicating a positive sentiment towards the stock despite a broader industry outflow of 1.526 billion yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foundation in the linear drive industry, with products spanning smart home, office, medical, and automotive sectors. It has maintained vertical integration in manufacturing and has begun global expansion [1][7]. - The company has made early investments in the robotics sector, focusing on key components such as motors and reducers, and is expected to achieve breakthroughs in this area [1][7]. - The financial statements indicate solid performance, with a healthy cash position and potential for new business development, despite recent profit margin declines due to external factors [7][21]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,234 million RMB in 2023 to 1,774 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 131 million RMB in 2023, followed by a decline to 61 million RMB in 2025, before recovering to 143 million RMB in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 108 million RMB in 2023 to 49 million RMB in 2025, with a recovery to 117 million RMB by 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic linear drive industry, with a comprehensive manufacturing system that includes mold development, core component production, and complete assembly [7][32]. - The company has successfully expanded from home applications to automotive components, particularly in electric tailgate systems, which are now part of the supply chains for several major automotive manufacturers [37]. Market Position - The global linear actuator market was valued at approximately 2.32 billion USD in 2020, with expectations to reach around 3.2 billion USD by 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory [18]. - The company holds an estimated market share of 6% in the linear actuator market, with competitors like Jiechang Drive holding a larger share of approximately 15.7% [18]. Future Prospects - The company is well-positioned to leverage its existing capabilities in linear drive systems to penetrate the robotics market, with ongoing development of specialized components for robotic applications [41]. - The establishment of a new manufacturing base in Vietnam and ongoing projects in the U.S. are expected to enhance the company's global footprint and operational efficiency [33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The company, Jiechang Drive (603583), reported a total revenue of 3.035 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18.19% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 380 million yuan, up 29.63% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 355 million yuan, reflecting a 36.44% increase [6][11]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.028 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.70%. The net profit for Q3 was 109 million yuan, marking a 4.79% increase year-on-year. However, the growth rate slowed due to external factors such as increased tariffs on exports to the U.S. and significant exchange rate fluctuations [7][8]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 30.37%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.52%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiechang Drive achieved a total revenue of 3.035 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, reflecting a 29.63% increase [6]. - The third quarter's revenue was 1.028 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.70%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, up 4.79% year-on-year [7]. Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 30.37%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 12.52%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 457 million yuan, a 23.88% increase year-on-year, indicating healthy cash flow management [8]. Business Growth - The company is focusing on three growth curves: the smart office business, which accounts for over 70% of revenue; the medical care business, which contributes about 15%; and the humanoid robot business, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [9][10]. - The smart office segment has shown significant recovery in overseas markets, contributing substantially to revenue growth [10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 4.394 billion yuan, 5.377 billion yuan, and 6.466 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 445 million yuan, 578 million yuan, and 727 million yuan, with PE ratios of 32.41X, 24.92X, and 19.83X [11].

Group 1 - Kedi Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.06% on September 25, reaching 106.93 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 200 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.75%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 7.557 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on August 27, 1992, and listed on June 1, 2020, specializes in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with 98.83% of its revenue coming from linear drive products and 1.17% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Among Kedi's top ten circulating shareholders, the Dongfang Alpha Fund has entered the list with its Dongfang Alpha Preferred Mixed A Fund (007518), holding 250,200 shares, which accounts for 0.36% of circulating shares, and has reportedly earned approximately 1.2885 million CNY in floating profits today [2] - The Dongfang Alpha Preferred Mixed A Fund, established on September 12, 2019, has a current size of 101 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 75.55%, ranking 269 out of 8,173 in its category, and a one-year return of 125.14%, ranking 246 out of 8,003 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Kedi Co., Ltd. (stock code: sh605288) reached its daily limit with a price of 122.98 yuan, reflecting a 10% increase and a total market value of 8.691 billion yuan on September 18, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Kedi Co., Ltd. implemented a comprehensive equity incentive plan covering 46 core employees, including 3 executives, which is expected to significantly bind talent and contribute to the company's long-term stable development [2] - The company completed a board restructuring and revised its articles of association, enhancing its governance structure and boosting market confidence [2] - The semi-annual report indicated a revenue growth of 5.64% year-on-year, maintaining an expansion trend in its main business, despite a significant decline in net profit, which sends a positive signal to the market [2] - Kedi Co., Ltd. is engaged in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with products spanning smart home and smart office sectors, indicating further expansion potential due to increasing market demand [2] - On the market performance front, there was capital inflow into related sectors such as smart home and linear drive concepts, leading to a synergistic effect that propelled Kedi Co., Ltd.'s stock price to its limit [2] - Although specific technical indicators were not obtained, significant capital inflow on that day likely contributed to the stock price surge [2] - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders changed by 3.75%, with an average of 10,600 circulating A-shares per shareholder, indicating that changes in shareholder structure may also impact stock price trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kaidi Co., Ltd. has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 179.80% and a recent decline of 2.27% on September 5, 2023, indicating volatility in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Kaidi Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 608 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.64%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.69% to 31.15 million yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Kaidi Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 164 million yuan in dividends, with 77.57 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of August 29, 2023, the number of shareholders for Kaidi Co., Ltd. increased by 2.86% to 6,448, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.78% to 10,886 shares [2]. - The stock has seen significant trading activity, with a total market value of 6.643 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.67% as of September 5, 2023 [1]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, several new institutional investors have entered the top ten shareholders list, including Guotai Valuation Advantage Mixed Fund A, which holds 2.0467 million shares, and Guotai Golden Eagle Growth Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, holding 611,200 shares [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange has seen a decrease in trading volume and value, with a total of 274 listed companies as of August 31, 2025, and a notable decline in trading activity during the last week of August 2025 [2][3]. Trading Activity - As of August 31, 2025, the North Exchange had a total trading volume of 66.58 billion shares for the week, a decrease of 17.87% compared to the previous week [3]. - The total trading value for the same week was 1645.28 billion yuan, down 21.09% from the previous week [3]. - The average trading price was 24.71 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.92% [3]. - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.63% to 1574.25 points, with 14 stocks rising and 36 falling [3]. New Listings and IPOs - One company, Shanghai Balanshi Automotive Testing Equipment Co., Ltd., successfully listed on the North Exchange on August 28, 2025, becoming the 274th listed company [8]. - Balanshi's stock price surged by 205.13% on its first trading day, closing at 48.15 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 39.48 billion yuan [8]. - The company aims to raise 300 million yuan for projects related to the intelligent transformation of automotive maintenance equipment [9]. Financial Performance - Balanshi reported revenues of 6.43 billion yuan, 7.94 billion yuan, and 10.57 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 30.04 million yuan, 80.55 million yuan, and 129 million yuan respectively [10]. - In the first half of 2025, Balanshi's revenue grew by 5.65% to 540 million yuan, and net profit increased by 11.80% to 77.53 million yuan [10]. Upcoming IPOs - One company, Sanxie Electric Co., Ltd., opened for subscription on August 26, 2025, with a target to raise 159 million yuan for expansion and R&D projects [12][14]. - Sanxie Electric reported revenues of 2.87 billion yuan, 3.62 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 26.98 million yuan, 48.64 million yuan, and 56.33 million yuan respectively [15][16]. Regulatory Status - As of August 31, 2025, there were 153 companies awaiting review on the North Exchange, with 140 under inquiry and 10 submitted for registration [5]. - No companies received IPO registration approval during the last week of August 2025 [17]. Company Developments - Jiangsu Jingchuang Electric Co., Ltd. passed the listing committee meeting on August 29, 2025, and plans to raise 175 million yuan for smart production upgrades [26]. - Zhejiang Kema Materials Co., Ltd. submitted its registration on August 26, 2025, aiming to raise 206 million yuan for environmental projects [20][21].

Core Points - The company has established a 2025 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan to attract and retain talent, enhance team cohesion, and align the interests of shareholders, the company, and core teams [9][10][30] - The plan involves granting a total of 4.36 million restricted shares, accounting for approximately 1.14% of the company's total share capital as of the plan's announcement date [2][18] - The initial grant will consist of 3.7 million shares, representing 0.97% of the total share capital, while 660,000 shares are reserved for future grants [2][18] - The grant price for the restricted shares is set at 19.15 yuan per share [5][24] - The plan's effective period is up to 48 months from the date of grant, with specific vesting schedules for the shares [4][22] Grant Conditions - Eligible participants include 276 core technical and business personnel, excluding independent directors and major shareholders [3][12] - The plan stipulates that the shares cannot be transferred or used as collateral during the lock-up period [2][22] - The performance assessment for unlocking shares is based on the company's revenue and net profit growth rates, with specific targets set for 2024 to 2027 [26][30] Performance Targets - The performance targets for the first unlock period in 2026 require a revenue growth rate of 30% and a net profit growth rate of 60% [27] - For the second unlock period in 2027, the targets are set at 45% for revenue growth and 75% for net profit growth [27][28] - The plan emphasizes that if performance targets are not met, the shares will not be unlocked and will be subject to repurchase by the company [28] Compliance and Governance - The plan is designed in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, including the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China [9][10] - The company's board of directors and the remuneration committee are responsible for overseeing the implementation and compliance of the incentive plan [10][11] - The plan includes provisions to ensure that no loans or financial assistance are provided to participants that could harm the company's interests [6][10]