经济分析

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已确认!知名机构大裁员,“过程混乱”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 11:06
"美国超半数行业裁员" 据央视新闻此前消息,美国穆迪分析公司首席经济分析师马克·赞迪说,美国超过半数行业已开始裁员。 他10日在社交平台X上发文称,经济衰退的起点往往事后才能看清。他认为,判定美国经济衰退何时开始和结束的官方机构是美 国全国经济研究所。根据该研究所定义,经济衰退指"经济活动显著下降,波及整个经济体,且持续数月以上",纳入考察的指 标包括个人收入、就业、消费者支出、销售和工业生产数据等。 央视记者获悉,美国疾控中心(CDC)已于20日裁减约600名员工。据悉,此次裁员涉及整个机构。 美国疾控中心员工工会批评此次裁员过程混乱,且正值亚特兰大总部发生枪击案不久,严重影响了机构的正常运作。 赞迪说,就业数据是最重要的单一数据,而这一数据自5月以来几乎停滞不前。 转自| 央视新闻 来源:长江日报 美国总统特朗普随后指责美国就业数据遭人为操控,并以此理由解雇时任劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗。 赞迪说:"7月,超过53%的行业正在裁员,仅医疗保健业的就业岗位在显著增加。" 美国摩根大通银行经济分析师在上周发布的研报中写道,就业数据显示,私营部门过去三个月的招聘人数减少至平均5.2万,除 医疗和教育以外,其 ...
穆迪首席经济学家发出警告:美国经济处于衰退边缘
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-14 06:57
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with significant warnings from Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi regarding employment data and economic indicators [1][3]. Employment Data - Although the U.S. has not yet entered a technical recession, the labor market shows signs of distress, with employment data stagnating since May [3]. - Over 53% of industries reported layoffs in July, indicating a potential recessionary signal [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [5]. Economic Policies - Zandi attributes the economic downturn to policies from the Trump administration, particularly tariffs and immigration policies, which are seen as major contributors to the current economic challenges [5]. - There is a possibility of improvement if detrimental economic policies are lifted quickly, but this seems increasingly unlikely [5]. Job Market Adjustments - Recent revisions to employment data have shown a substantial downward adjustment, with May and June's job additions revised down from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively, indicating a cooling job market [5].