行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 2026 年 01 月 13 日 油运 Q4Q1 业绩有望高增，航空有 望迎来黄金时代 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 看好 ——交运行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 本期投资提示 ...

一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）2026年全国邮政工作会议在京召开，预计2026年行业需求增速8%，明确高质量发展方向，强调发挥 政府作用。1月7日，2026年全国邮政工作会议在北京召开。预计2026年，行业仍将保持稳步上升态势， 快递业务量将完成2140亿件，同比增长8%左右。会议指出，"十五五"时期，全行业要摆脱对规模和速 度的传统路径依赖，将发展重心切换到质的有效提升和量的合理增长上来。前瞻性应对存量市场竞争带 来的新挑战，引导企业摒弃"以价换量"旧模式，着力遏制无序非理性竞争。针对行业治理中的现实问 题，必须更好发挥有为政府作用，加强政府监管，不断提升行政效能，健全法规标准政策体系，推动总 部企业履行网络的统一管理责任，持续提升企业合规化水平。 华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：1月7日，2026年全国邮政工作会议在北京召开。预计2026年，行 业仍将保持稳步上升态势，快递业务量将完成2140亿件，同比增长8%左右。会议指出，"十五五"时 期，全行业要摆脱对规模和速度的传统路径依赖，将发展重心切换到质的有效提升和量的合理增长上 来。前瞻性应对存量市场竞争带来的新挑战，引导企业摒弃"以价换量"旧模式， ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 12 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 全国邮政会议召开，地缘再显油运价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2026 年 1 月 5 日-2026 年 1 月 11 日） 投资要点： 一、一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）2026 年全国邮政工作会议在京召开，预计 2026 年行业需求增速 8%，明确高质 量发展方向，强调发挥政府作用。1 月 7 日，2026 年全国邮政工作会议在北京召开。 预计 2026 年 ...

Group 1 - The aviation and airport sector is expected to see steady demand growth, with Airbus's new orders not altering the low supply growth trend in the industry, leading to improved industry profitability due to favorable oil and exchange rates [1] - In the shipping and port sector, the escalation of the situation in Venezuela is expected to boost oil transportation demand in the compliant market, potentially leading to an increase in oil transportation rates month-on-month in January; container shipping rates may rise month-on-month but decline year-on-year, while dry bulk shipping rates and port throughput may experience seasonal declines but show year-on-year growth [1] - The logistics and express delivery sector may face pressure on shipment volumes in January due to high base effects, with a lack of short-term upward momentum in pricing [1] Group 2 - The road and rail sector is supported by high passenger traffic from tourism, but weak coal transportation demand is dragging down freight performance [1] - The company continues to recommend the aviation and oil transportation sectors, as well as certain growth and high-dividend stocks [1]

华泰证券指出，展望1月，步入客货淡季。分板块来看：1）航空机场：空客新订单不改行业供给低增速 趋势，需求稳步增长叠加油汇利好，行业收益水平有望持续改善。2）航运港口：委内瑞拉局势升级推 升合规市场油运需求，有望催化1月油运运价同环比上涨；集运或环比涨价，但同比下滑；干散运价/港 口吞吐量或季节性回落，但同比增长。3）物流快递：1月件量在高基数下或承压，价格端短期缺乏上涨 动力。4）公路铁路：旅游客流支撑客运高景气，但运煤需求偏弱拖累货运景气。我们持续推荐航空/油 运板块，及部分成长和高股息个股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 5% in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached approximately 180.6 billion pieces, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [2]. - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remained stable, and the report recommends Haichen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,612 flights per day, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector indicates a mixed performance, with container shipping rates showing a slight increase, while dry bulk shipping rates have decreased. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil tanker operations [5]. - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with highway freight traffic increasing by 2.02% week-on-week, and the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume [6][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.3% during the week of December 20-26, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.9%. The logistics sector had the highest gain at 5.5%, while the aviation sector saw a decline of 0.7% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The report notes a slowdown in container shipping declines, with support from seasonal demand and long-term contracts. However, it warns of potential downward pressure on rates in January due to increased capacity [24]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1,146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [25]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a total passenger volume of 60.17 million in November, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [58]. - The report highlights that airlines are expected to see significant profit increases in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The report indicates that national railway passenger volume reached 331 million in November, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%, while freight volume was 460 million tons, up 1.16% [83]. - The highway freight traffic showed a slight increase, with a total of 55.44 million trucks passing through highways during the week of December 16-21 [89].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Rizhao has made significant investments in transportation infrastructure, totaling 58 billion yuan over the past five years, enhancing its transportation network and supporting economic and social development [1][2]. Group 1: Transportation Infrastructure Development - Rizhao has completed the construction of the Rizhao Station and several railway projects, forming a "four vertical and three horizontal" railway network, with ongoing projects like the Weifang-Suzhou High-speed Railway and the Qingdao connection line [1]. - The highway network has been expanded with the capacity enhancement of the Shenyang-Haikou Expressway and the opening of the Lianshan Port area expressway, creating a "three vertical, three horizontal, and three connected" expressway network [1]. - In civil aviation, Rizhao's airport has maintained over 100,000 flights annually for six consecutive years, supporting a comprehensive aviation development strategy [1]. Group 2: Port Development - The Rizhao Port has launched its fourth 300,000-ton crude oil terminal and added 15 new production berths, increasing its throughput capacity to 354 million tons [2]. - The port's cargo throughput is projected to reach 620 million tons in 2024, ranking sixth nationally, with container throughput expected to reach 6.71 million TEUs, ranking ninth among coastal ports [2]. - The "Rizhao Inland River Port Overall Plan (2025-2035)" has been approved, initiating a new model for sea-river combined transport [2]. Group 3: Public Services and Rural Development - The city has optimized and launched 124 new urban bus routes, including 71 specialized services, resulting in a 22.4% increase in average operational mileage compared to the previous five years [2]. - Significant improvements in rural transportation include the reconstruction of 859 kilometers of rural roads and the renovation of 89 dangerous bridges, achieving a 90% standard rate for rural roads [2]. - The implementation of 43 transportation services that can be processed online has improved accessibility for rural logistics and travel, addressing the "last mile" issue [2]. Group 4: Innovation and Development - The city has introduced over 40 innovative measures, with more than 20 receiving national and provincial recognition, including the "Four Good Rural Roads" management model [3]. - Initiatives such as drone test flights and integrated driver training models have been recognized as national exemplary cases [3]. - Policies to support container development and differentiated tolls on highways have been implemented to reduce logistics costs and promote integrated urban and industrial development [3].

以下为研究报告摘要： 中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方 面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通 新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同比增长14.9%。 7.64%。⑤公路铁路：12月8日—12月14日，全国高速公路货车通行5434.5万辆，环比下降2%。⑥交通 新业态：2025年Q3，联想PC电脑出货量达1940万台，同比上升17.30%，市场份额环比上升0.4pct。 投资建议： 建议关注设备与制造业工业品出口链条。推荐中远海特、招商轮船、华贸物流，建议关注东航物流、中 国外运。 建议关注雅鲁藏布江下游水电站建设带动的交通运输需求增加主题机会。建议关注四川成渝、重庆港、 富临运业。 关注低空经济赛道趋势性投资机遇。建议关注中信海直。 航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完 成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关 启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同 ...

Industry Overview - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global airlines will achieve a total net profit of $41 billion by 2026, marking a historical high, although the net profit margin will remain at 3.9%, unchanged from 2025 [3] - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to generate a net profit of $6.6 billion in 2026, with China and India leading regional growth, but the profit per passenger is low at only $3.20 [3] - Supply chain bottlenecks continue to hinder the growth of the aviation industry, with aircraft availability being a significant constraint [3] Express Logistics - Emerging market logistics demand is robust, with J&T Express in Brazil achieving record daily collection volumes during Black Friday, with non-platform customer orders increasing nearly 40% month-on-month [1] - The Mexican and Egyptian markets are also experiencing stable year-on-year growth of around 20% due to Black Friday demand overflow [1] Shipping and Ports - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan oil tankers, which may lead to increased demand for compliant oil transportation [6] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 7.8% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [6] - The BDTI index for crude oil tankers decreased by 1.9% week-on-week, while the BCTI index for product tankers fell by 6.5% [7] Airports - Multiple airports are experiencing significant growth in international passenger volumes, with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport seeing a 19.01% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The end of the 26-year operation of Duty Free Shoppers at Shanghai airports marks a significant change in the airport retail landscape [4] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight down 2.35% and highway truck traffic down 1.75% week-on-week [9] - The Central Plains Expressway reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for November 2025, indicating stable traffic growth [10] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from resilient e-commerce demand, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics poised for growth [11] - The shipping sector is anticipated to see improved demand due to increased oil production and favorable economic conditions, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping being highlighted [12] - The aviation sector is advised to be monitored for potential long-term growth signals, with companies such as China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines recommended for investment [13]

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]