华泰证券指出，展望1月，步入客货淡季。分板块来看：1）航空机场：空客新订单不改行业供给低增速 趋势，需求稳步增长叠加油汇利好，行业收益水平有望持续改善。2）航运港口：委内瑞拉局势升级推 升合规市场油运需求，有望催化1月油运运价同环比上涨；集运或环比涨价，但同比下滑；干散运价/港 口吞吐量或季节性回落，但同比增长。3）物流快递：1月件量在高基数下或承压，价格端短期缺乏上涨 动力。4）公路铁路：旅游客流支撑客运高景气，但运煤需求偏弱拖累货运景气。我们持续推荐航空/油 运板块，及部分成长和高股息个股。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

华泰证券指出，展望1月，步入客货淡季。分板块来看：1）航空机场：空客新订单不改行业供给低增速 趋势，需求稳步增长叠加油汇利好，行业收益水平有望持续改善。2）航运港口：委内瑞拉局势升级推 升合规市场油运需求，有望催化1月油运运价同环比上涨；集运或环比涨价，但同比下滑；干散运价/港 口吞吐量或季节性回落，但同比增长。3）物流快递：1月件量在高基数下或承压，价格端短期缺乏上涨 动力。4）公路铁路：旅游客流支撑客运高景气，但运煤需求偏弱拖累货运景气。我们持续推荐航空/油 运板块，及部分成长和高股息个股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 5% in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached approximately 180.6 billion pieces, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [2]. - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remained stable, and the report recommends Haichen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,612 flights per day, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector indicates a mixed performance, with container shipping rates showing a slight increase, while dry bulk shipping rates have decreased. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil tanker operations [5]. - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with highway freight traffic increasing by 2.02% week-on-week, and the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume [6][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.3% during the week of December 20-26, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.9%. The logistics sector had the highest gain at 5.5%, while the aviation sector saw a decline of 0.7% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The report notes a slowdown in container shipping declines, with support from seasonal demand and long-term contracts. However, it warns of potential downward pressure on rates in January due to increased capacity [24]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1,146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [25]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a total passenger volume of 60.17 million in November, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [58]. - The report highlights that airlines are expected to see significant profit increases in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The report indicates that national railway passenger volume reached 331 million in November, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%, while freight volume was 460 million tons, up 1.16% [83]. - The highway freight traffic showed a slight increase, with a total of 55.44 million trucks passing through highways during the week of December 16-21 [89].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Rizhao has made significant investments in transportation infrastructure, totaling 58 billion yuan over the past five years, enhancing its transportation network and supporting economic and social development [1][2]. Group 1: Transportation Infrastructure Development - Rizhao has completed the construction of the Rizhao Station and several railway projects, forming a "four vertical and three horizontal" railway network, with ongoing projects like the Weifang-Suzhou High-speed Railway and the Qingdao connection line [1]. - The highway network has been expanded with the capacity enhancement of the Shenyang-Haikou Expressway and the opening of the Lianshan Port area expressway, creating a "three vertical, three horizontal, and three connected" expressway network [1]. - In civil aviation, Rizhao's airport has maintained over 100,000 flights annually for six consecutive years, supporting a comprehensive aviation development strategy [1]. Group 2: Port Development - The Rizhao Port has launched its fourth 300,000-ton crude oil terminal and added 15 new production berths, increasing its throughput capacity to 354 million tons [2]. - The port's cargo throughput is projected to reach 620 million tons in 2024, ranking sixth nationally, with container throughput expected to reach 6.71 million TEUs, ranking ninth among coastal ports [2]. - The "Rizhao Inland River Port Overall Plan (2025-2035)" has been approved, initiating a new model for sea-river combined transport [2]. Group 3: Public Services and Rural Development - The city has optimized and launched 124 new urban bus routes, including 71 specialized services, resulting in a 22.4% increase in average operational mileage compared to the previous five years [2]. - Significant improvements in rural transportation include the reconstruction of 859 kilometers of rural roads and the renovation of 89 dangerous bridges, achieving a 90% standard rate for rural roads [2]. - The implementation of 43 transportation services that can be processed online has improved accessibility for rural logistics and travel, addressing the "last mile" issue [2]. Group 4: Innovation and Development - The city has introduced over 40 innovative measures, with more than 20 receiving national and provincial recognition, including the "Four Good Rural Roads" management model [3]. - Initiatives such as drone test flights and integrated driver training models have been recognized as national exemplary cases [3]. - Policies to support container development and differentiated tolls on highways have been implemented to reduce logistics costs and promote integrated urban and industrial development [3].

以下为研究报告摘要： 中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方 面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通 新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同比增长14.9%。 7.64%。⑤公路铁路：12月8日—12月14日，全国高速公路货车通行5434.5万辆，环比下降2%。⑥交通 新业态：2025年Q3，联想PC电脑出货量达1940万台，同比上升17.30%，市场份额环比上升0.4pct。 投资建议： 建议关注设备与制造业工业品出口链条。推荐中远海特、招商轮船、华贸物流，建议关注东航物流、中 国外运。 建议关注雅鲁藏布江下游水电站建设带动的交通运输需求增加主题机会。建议关注四川成渝、重庆港、 富临运业。 关注低空经济赛道趋势性投资机遇。建议关注中信海直。 航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完 成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关 启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同 ...

华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国际航空运输协会（IATA）发布全球航空业最新财务展望。尽 管航空供应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健。2026年全球航空公司预计实现总净利润410亿美 元，创历史新高，但净利率仍维持在3.9%，与2025年持平。2026年亚太地区净利润估算66亿美元，中 国和印度引领区域增长，但单客利润仅3.20美元，处于较低水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）黑五新兴市场物流需求稳健增长，极兔速递巴西单日揽收量创新高。根据极兔节拍公众号，极兔巴 西在11月迎来订单规模双重突破：非平台类客户订单量较10月环比激增近40%，平台类客户订单量环比 提升约25%；与今年第三季度日均水平相比，平台类订单增幅高达80%。从年度维度来看，巴西市场当 前业务体量较去年同期已实现超200%的跨越式增长；与此同时，墨西哥、埃及等其他新兴市场同步承 接黑五消费外溢需求，保持着20%左右的稳定同比增长。 2）申通常德转运中心主体结构全面封顶，全面投产年处理包裹量可达50000万件。根据申通之声公众 号，湖南常德高新区的申通常德转运中心项目主体结构全面封顶。该项目总投资 ...

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Long-term competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with significant potential for both performance and valuation increases [16] - In the shipping sector, oil transportation is expected to benefit from increased crude oil production and demand driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The market is anticipated to see significant improvement in 2026, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy being recommended for attention [16] - The aviation sector shows stable demand growth, with supply constraints and cost improvements expected to create a favorable environment for investment. Companies such as China Southern Airlines and Air China are suggested for early positioning [16] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The Black Friday logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with J&T Express in Brazil achieving record daily collection volumes, with non-platform customer orders increasing nearly 40% month-on-month [5] - The Shentong Changde Transit Center is set to process 500 million packages annually upon full operation, significantly enhancing logistics efficiency in the region [6] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a net profit of $41 billion for global airlines in 2026, despite ongoing supply chain bottlenecks. The net profit margin is expected to remain at 3.9% [7] - The easing of group travel visa restrictions between China and South Korea is anticipated to stimulate inbound demand [7] Shipping and Ports - The SCFI composite freight index increased by 7.8% week-on-week, indicating rising export container freight rates [10] - The BDI index for bulk shipping decreased by 8.1% week-on-week, reflecting a decline in shipping rates across various categories [11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume at 80.19 million tons, down 2.35% week-on-week [14] - The revenue from tolls on the Zhongyuan Expressway increased by 3.8% year-on-year, indicating stable traffic flow [15]

Industry Dynamics - The BDTI index for oil tanker rates decreased by 3.2% week-on-week to 1414 points, with VLCC TCE down by 6.9% [1] - SF Express launched an "overdue compensation" service, providing cash compensation for delivery delays caused by the company, starting from December 1 [1] - Zhongtong Express held a labor rules negotiation meeting to ensure 100% direct linkage of delivery and pickup fees for couriers, with a focus on income transparency and worker protection [2] Shipping and Port Operations - VLCC spot rates remain strong, with the TD3C route TCE reported at $122,000/day, up 151.4% since late August [4] - The BDI index reached a two-year high of 2845 points, driven by strong demand from Australian miners [5] - The SCFI composite index for Shanghai export container rates decreased by 0.4% to 1398 points [5] - The BCTI index for product tanker rates fell by 7.0% to 810 points [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 12.5% to 2711 points, with BCI/BPI/BSI showing mixed results [6] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 8.43% week-on-week, while container throughput decreased by 0.27% [7] Logistics and Supply Chain - National logistics operations were stable from November 24 to November 30, with rail freight increasing by 0.74% [8] - Shenzhen International is expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [11] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with companies like Debon and Aneng Logistics showing strong profit potential [11] Investment Opportunities - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from resilient e-commerce demand and a reduction in price competition, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics poised for growth [9] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy recommended for investment [10] - The bulk shipping market is expected to recover, driven by environmental regulations and new iron ore supply from the Simandou project, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Hainan Airlines Technology highlighted [10] - The shipbuilding sector is entering a profit realization phase, with companies like China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation recommended for attention [10] - The aviation sector is showing signs of sustainable demand growth, with companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines Holdings suggested for early investment [11]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 看好快递格局向好，航空供需结构向上 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 12 月 1 日-2025 年 12 月 7 日） 投资要点： 一、一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）顺丰行业首推"超时赔付"服务。根据顺丰集团公众号，12 月 1 日起，顺丰于 行业内首次推出"超时赔付"服务，只要在小程序或 APP 等顺丰官方渠道下单顺丰 特快，若因顺丰运输原因导致的派送超时，客 ...