证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递反内卷趋势延续，油运运价创新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 11 月 17 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）10 月快递行业数据发布，行业件量同比增长 7.9%，通达系各家件量增速分化， 单票收入环比均持续改善，反内卷成效显著。2025 年 10 月，我国快递业务量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 ...

Real Estate - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 0.2% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 1.54 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% [2] - The government has launched a plan to develop smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [2][10] - Various local policies are being implemented, such as Shenzhen's support for converting idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing [2][10] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing strong demand, with the National Postal Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involution" competition [14][25] - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities [15][25] - The shipping industry is benefiting from improved Sino-US trade relations, with expectations of increased demand for Panamax bulk carriers [16] Pharmaceuticals - Haitai New Light reported a significant revenue increase of 40.47% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong demand for medical endoscopes and optical products [29][30] - The company has a backlog of orders worth approximately 300 million yuan from US clients, indicating robust market demand [30] - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, reaching 66.55%, supported by the transition of production capacity to Thailand to mitigate tariff risks [31] Technology - Audiwei has achieved a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with plans for H-share financing to enhance overseas expansion [33][34] - The company is benefiting from the upgrade of intelligent driving systems, which is increasing demand for its ultrasonic sensors [34][35] - Parallel Technology has reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by its collaboration with Alibaba Cloud to promote domestic computing power and AI technology [37][38]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased, with the SCFI composite index down 3.6% week-on-week to 1495 points, while the BCTI index increased by 4.2% to 644 points [1][5] - The U.S. soybean market is returning to China, with expectations of purchasing at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025, potentially boosting demand for Panamax bulk carriers [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing a resilient demand for e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on reducing "involution" competition, which is expected to enhance service quality and profitability [2][11] Group 2: Company Developments - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities in the domestic express delivery sector [3] - The logistics landscape is shifting towards a dual network model of "franchise + direct operation," leveraging Danbird's warehousing and distribution capabilities [3][11] - The recent extension of visa-free policies for certain countries is anticipated to boost inbound tourism, positively impacting airlines and related sectors [7][8] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Rates - The BDI index for bulk carriers has increased by 1.3% to 1992 points, indicating a positive trend in the bulk shipping market [6] - The newbuilding price index has decreased slightly, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the shipbuilding market amid fluctuating demand [6][13] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the outlook for companies in this sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share transportation index has underperformed the market since early 2025, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares. The outlook for 2026 is positive for certain sectors, including logistics and cyclical opportunities in aviation and shipping [1]. Group 1: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to high base effects, with a projected growth rate of around 10% in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [2][3]. - The franchise model in express delivery is expected to show strong profitability growth in 2026, driven by low base profits per shipment and regulatory measures to stabilize pricing [3]. - The direct express delivery segment is anticipated to recover, benefiting from improved demand dynamics [4]. Group 2: Non-Express Logistics - The logistics sector has shown mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap ones. The focus for 2026 will likely be on individual stock performance amid uncertain external conditions [5]. Group 3: Road and Rail - The highway and railway sectors have become more attractive after a pullback, with the highway index underperforming major indices by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points since June 2025 [6]. Group 4: Shipping - Structural opportunities are present in the shipping sector, particularly for smaller container ships and oil tankers, due to an aging global fleet and supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - Geopolitical factors continue to influence the shipping market, with potential impacts from trade structure changes and sanctions affecting oil production [9]. Group 5: Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand balance shift in 2026, with passenger demand growth supported by a rebound in business travel and limited aircraft availability due to ongoing production constraints [10]. - External factors such as low oil prices and currency fluctuations may enhance airline profitability in 2026 [10]. Group 6: Airports - The airport sector is projected to benefit from passenger recovery, but the impact of new capacity and the performance of non-aeronautical revenue streams, particularly duty-free sales, remains uncertain [11].

公路铁路： 2025年以来高速公路指数跑输大盘和红利指数，主要受市场风格偏好影响，并非基本面原因。展望2026年，我们认为公路铁路已 经具备配置性价比（股息率纵向和横向比较均处于平均值偏上）。 航运： 看好结构性市场机会，持续关注地缘影响。集运看好小型集装箱船的供给紧张机会；油运看好OPEC增产带来对合规VLCC大船市场的 需求机会。此外，过去五年地缘因素持续影响航运市场，往前看仍需关注由此可能引发的贸易或运输结构变化。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2025年初至今A股申万交运指数上涨1%，跑输市场，主要受公路铁路港口等基础设施红利类资产回调影响，港股走势强于A股。展望2026年， 我们看好：1）回调到位的红利类资产；2）快递物流成长性机会：关注快递反内卷、科技对物流的渗透；3）周期的结构性机会，如航空的供 需反转弹性，集运的中小船型，油运VLCC。 快递：加盟制快递检验反内卷成果和持续性，直营快递快运或迎来修复。 我们预计2026年快递业务量在高基数下同比增速或放缓至10%，前 低后高。市场、监管和平台三重因素重新平衡，2026年将成为检验反内卷效果和持续性的一年。非快递物流：明年内外部环境不 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is showing resilience in demand, with a "de-involution" trend leading to price increases, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability. Long-term positive competition opportunities are anticipated in the e-commerce express delivery market [14] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market anticipated in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and green updates. The shipbuilding market is expected to see improved activity as various constraints ease [14] - The aviation sector is projected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and cost improvements expected [14] - The supply chain logistics sector is expected to see performance elasticity from the transformation of logistics parks in South China, with a focus on high dividends and value reassessment [15] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The "Tongda" companies reported Q3 2025 performance with improved single-ticket profits, reflecting the impact of price increases. YTO, Shentong, and Yunda's revenues were 18.27 billion, 13.55 billion, and 12.66 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.73%, 13.62%, and 3.29% [5] - YTO's business volume reached 7.721 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, while Shentong and Yunda's volumes were 6.515 billion and 6.417 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 6.6% [5] Shipping - VLCC TCE rates surged to $125,000/day, a 10-year high, driven by tightening capacity and increasing demand [7] - The SCFI index rose by 10.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in container shipping rates [8] - The BDTI index increased by 8.47% week-on-week, reflecting rising oil tanker rates [9] Aviation - Global passenger demand grew by 3.6% in September 2025, with a load factor of 83.4% [10] - China National Airlines plans to purchase up to 10 A350F freighters, with a total value of approximately $4.65 billion [11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were stable from October 20 to 26, with rail freight at 79.224 million tons, a 1.37% decrease [12] - Sichuan Chengyu reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a 1.52% year-on-year decline, but net profit increased by 8.96% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings and Xiamen Xiangyu exceeded expectations, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector due to institutional underweight positions [2]. - The shipping segment shows resilience, with COSCO's Q3 performance slightly above expectations, and tanker stock performance aligning with freight rate trends. The report anticipates an upward revision in global tanker profitability forecasts [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing sustained growth in demand, with domestic passenger transport reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Major airlines are expected to see significant improvements in profitability [2]. - The express delivery sector is under pressure, but companies like SF Express are showing resilience through strategic investments and market expansion, with expectations for margin improvement in Q4 and next year [2]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in railway passenger and freight volumes, with recommendations for specific railway and highway companies based on performance metrics [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping - COSCO Shipping's Q3 net profit reached CNY 95.33 billion, a 63.20% increase from Q2, while operating cash flow was CNY 142.05 billion, up 32.57% [4][6]. - Recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, with a focus on the tanker segment due to favorable freight rates [2]. Aviation - Domestic airlines achieved a passenger volume of 210 million, with a seat occupancy rate exceeding 84% for three consecutive months, indicating strong recovery [2]. - China Eastern Airlines showed the most significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [2]. Express Delivery - SF Express maintained high growth rates despite margin pressures, with a focus on strategic pricing and market expansion [2]. - The report notes initial signs of profit recovery in the express delivery sector due to price increases in core regions [2]. Rail and Highway - The report highlights a growth in railway passenger and freight volumes, with specific recommendations for companies like Daqin Railway and Zhejiang Huhang Highway [2]. - The highway segment is also showing positive trends, with several companies reporting significant increases in net profit and cash flow [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4][10][12]. Core Views - The transportation sector is experiencing a recovery in passenger and freight volumes, driven by the resumption of domestic and international travel, as well as a rebound in logistics demand [8][12]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, which is expected to further enhance the performance of airlines and logistics companies [12][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - From October 20 to October 25, 2025, the transportation sector recorded a cumulative increase of +0.72%, ranking 24th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index rose by +3.24% [16][18]. - Sub-sectors within transportation showed varied performance, with public transport (+4.81%) and warehousing logistics (+2.88%) leading the gains, while shipping experienced a decline of -1.28% [18][19]. Aviation and Airports - In September 2025, major listed airlines in China showed significant recovery in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to 2019, with China Southern Airlines at 116.42% and Spring Airlines at 176.49% [27]. - Major airports also reported recovery in passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport and Shanghai Airport achieving recovery rates of 115.74% and 125.22% for domestic passengers, respectively [35]. Shipping and Ports - As of October 24, 2025, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1403.46 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +7.11% but a year-on-year decrease of -35.78% [39]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reported a value of 992.74 points, with a week-on-week increase of +2.02% and a year-on-year decrease of -27.35% [39]. Road and Rail - In September 2025, railway passenger volume reached 341 million, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of -0.24%, while freight volume increased by +4.24% to 4.45 million tons [64]. - Road transport saw a significant decline in passenger volume, down -43.82% year-on-year, while freight volume increased by +5.20% to 38.91 million tons [70]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of +7.20%, with business volume rising by +12.70% to 16.88 billion parcels [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in September, indicating a steady expansion of the market [4][25] - The logistics sector is witnessing technological advancements, with JD Logistics planning to procure 3 million robots and 100,000 unmanned vehicles over the next five years, which may enhance supply chain efficiency [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical factors and trade negotiations, potentially increasing demand for oil transportation and bulk shipping [6][10] - The aviation sector is experiencing growth, with a 10.8% increase in international flight volumes for the upcoming winter-spring season, reflecting a recovery in air travel [10][12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In September 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with revenue of 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% [4][25] - Major players like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control, with significant growth potential [14] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market may benefit from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing long-distance shipping demand [6] - The shipping market is expected to see a recovery driven by environmental regulations and geopolitical stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipping and COSCO [14][15] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to maintain steady growth, with a 10.3% increase in total transport turnover and a 5.2% rise in passenger transport volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Airbus has opened a new A320 assembly line in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in Sino-European cooperation [9] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.33% and highway freight truck traffic rising by 24.72% [13] - Strategic partnerships in the highway sector are being formed to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [13] Overall Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 1.12%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.88% [20][23]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the three major indices closing in the green, and the total trading volume reached 1.6 trillion, remaining at a recent low level [1] - A total of 2,994 stocks rose while 2,302 fell, with 143 stocks remaining unchanged. There were 72 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 9 stocks hitting the limit down [2] Dividend Trends - During the third quarter reporting period, many A-share listed companies announced dividend plans, with at least 18 companies planning to distribute over 3.4 billion in cash dividends [1] - The active dividend style is expected to attract investor attention, with institutions suggesting that dividend stocks may serve as a safe haven for funds in the short term [1] Sector Performance - The coal sector showed strong rebounds, with notable performances from stocks like Daqo Energy, which achieved an eight-day limit up [1] - Other sectors that performed well included banking, electricity, railways, and ports, while the computing hardware sector faced declines [1] Key Events - The US-China economic and trade consultations are scheduled to take place in Malaysia from October 24 to 27, focusing on important issues in the economic relationship [4] - The second review of the cybersecurity law amendment draft is set to promote the safety and development of artificial intelligence [5] Future Market Outlook - Debon Securities warns of potential risks related to insufficient market liquidity if trading volume continues to decline, suggesting that the focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" may become a new market theme [7] - Huajin Securities emphasizes that technology innovation and expanding domestic demand may be key directions for future market performance [8] Investment Focus - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" includes technology-related industries such as computers, electronics, and communications, as well as consumer-driven sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption [9] - The upcoming Shanghai International Consumer Electronics Show is expected to stimulate interest in the consumer electronics sector, showcasing advancements in 5G, AI, and virtual reality [10]