行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 2025 年 10 月 10 日 快递三季报验证利润修复弹性，造 船进入业绩释放，把握油运造船上 行机会 看好 ——交运行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 国庆中秋假期出行有望迎来景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 9 月 22 日-2025 年 9 月 28 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）"通达兔"快递企业宣布上调上海市电商快递价格，全国快递涨价区域已达 93%。 根据东方网， 9 月 22 日极兔、中通、圆通、申通、韵达宣布上调上海地区快递收 件价格，电商件单票价格上涨 0.2-0. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.105 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 663 million yuan, up 7.68% year-on-year [5]. - The company's highway operation business is stable, with toll revenue increasing by 2.23% year-on-year. The construction service revenue saw a significant increase of 72.63%, contributing to the overall revenue growth [5][6]. - The company is the only publicly listed highway operator in Henan Province, managing a total of 808 kilometers of highways [5]. - The investment income from subsidiaries has been growing, with a reported investment income of 331 million yuan in 2024, a 158.80% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company has optimized its debt structure, resulting in a reduction of financial expenses by 18.75% to 373 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a basic earnings per share of 0.27 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%. The weighted average return on equity was 5.16%, up 0.2 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [5]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.146 billion yuan, a significant increase of 30.51% year-on-year [8]. Business Operations - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the highway network in Henan Province, with the total operational mileage projected to exceed 10,000 kilometers by 2025 [6]. - The company has diversified its business operations, with significant contributions from construction services and real estate sales [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 937 million yuan, 1.009 billion yuan, and 1.116 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.42, 0.45, and 0.50 yuan [11].

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The Anhui Provincial Express Association has launched an initiative to resist "involution" competition, aiming to promote high-quality development in the industry and maintain market order [1][7] - Starting from September 15, 2025, express delivery prices in Anhui Province will increase by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is expected to help close the price gap in central and eastern regions of China [1][7] - The express delivery business volume in Anhui Province accounted for 3.6% of the national total from 2024 to July 2025, indicating significant regional influence [1] Group 2: Shipping and Maritime Industry - The VLCCTD3cTCE rate surged to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week, indicating a strong demand in the shipping market as the peak season approaches [2] - The attack on Russia's largest oil loading port in the Baltic Sea could lead to a 24% reduction in Russian oil exports, which may further boost VLCC short-term demand and pricing [3] - The outlook for VLCC rates is optimistic, with potential to reach $200,000 per day during the peak season, driven by OPEC+ production increases and tightening supply [2][3] Group 3: Aviation Industry - Airline ticket prices have shown a positive trend since August 13, with significant year-on-year growth observed in early September, driven by increased passenger volume and business travel recovery [4][7] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance likely to enhance the sector's performance [8] Group 4: Logistics and Infrastructure - National logistics operations have been running smoothly, with rail freight volumes reported at 79.04 million tons from September 1 to September 7, despite a slight decrease [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging the submission of REITs projects in mature asset types, including toll roads and clean energy, to enhance infrastructure investment [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - In the express delivery sector, companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and ZTO Express are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and operational efficiencies [7][8] - In the shipping industry, companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping are recommended due to favorable market conditions and potential demand growth [8] - The aviation sector presents investment opportunities in companies like China Southern Airlines and HNA Group, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in air travel demand [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector is expected to see price increases due to a "de-involution" initiative in Anhui Province, which aims to combat unhealthy price competition and promote high-quality industry development. Starting September 15, 2025, express prices in Anhui will rise by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is anticipated to help stabilize prices in the central and eastern regions of China [4][3] - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with VLCC TD3c TCE rising to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week. This surge is attributed to the seasonal release of cargo volumes and geopolitical factors affecting oil exports [6][7] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in ticket prices, with a positive year-on-year growth trend observed since August 13, 2025. This is driven by a rebound in business travel and inbound tourism, suggesting a potential for continued price increases [8][9] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics industry is showing resilience in demand, with a focus on reducing unhealthy competition. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express are expected to benefit from this trend, with potential for improved profitability and valuation [11] Shipping - The oil transportation market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment. Companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are recommended for investment [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is also anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities. Companies like China Merchants Industry Holdings and Haitong Development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to experience long-term growth due to low supply growth and improving demand. Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from this trend [11] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are positioned well for growth due to industry dynamics and strategic transformations [11] Ports - The port sector is seen as stable with strong cash flows, and companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port are recommended for their growth potential [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing a price recovery trend, supported by regulatory measures against unhealthy competition, particularly in Zhejiang province, which accounted for 16.9% of national express business volume in H1 2025 [5] - Zhongtong Express reported a 26.8% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, influenced by price competition, despite a revenue increase of 10.3% to 11.83 billion yuan [6] - The air transport sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring price increases, while short-term booking data shows signs of improvement [17] - The shipping industry is projected to see a boost in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with specific companies recommended for investment [18] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics sector is seeing a robust demand, with a total of 164 billion packages delivered in July 2025, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase [27] - Major express companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a 33.69% increase in July [7][27] Air Transport - In July 2025, civil aviation achieved a passenger transport volume of 71.82 million, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, and a cargo volume of 86.7 thousand tons, up 15.3% [11][57] - The overall seat occupancy rate for major airlines was 83.06%, slightly down from the previous month [60] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDTI index for oil transportation showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties [13][18] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 2.82% to 26.135 million tons in the week of August 11-17, 2025 [81] Road and Rail - In July 2025, road freight volume increased by 3.28% to 36.99 billion tons, while rail freight volume rose by 3.35% to 4.52 billion tons [47]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The opening of the first low-altitude cargo route between Wuhan and Ezhou, along with high passenger traffic at Shanghai ports during the summer season, indicates growth in logistics and transportation [2][3] - Oil shipping rates remain low and fluctuating, while shipping rates for routes to Europe and the US continue to decline [3][16] - Joby Aviation successfully completed the world's first manned eVTOL flight between airports, showcasing advancements in aviation technology [3][17] - National railway coal shipments reached 1.02 billion tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong demand in the transportation sector [3][27] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - Oil shipping rates are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index at 1064.60 points, up 0.7% from the previous week [15] - The shipping market is showing signs of weakness, with rates for routes to Europe and the US declining by 7.2% and 3.5% respectively [16] - The first low-altitude cargo flight between Ezhou and Wuhan was completed, marking a significant development in regional logistics [25][26] Passenger Transport - Shanghai's passenger traffic has remained high, averaging 129,000 daily entries and exits, a year-on-year increase of over 14% [18] - The peak day recorded 157,000 passengers, indicating a strong recovery in air travel [18] Freight and Rail Transport - In the first half of 2025, national railways transported 1.98 billion tons of goods, with coal shipments accounting for 1.02 billion tons [27] - The average daily loading of coal cars was 182,400, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year increase [27] High-frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices have shown a slight decline, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4455.00 points, down 4.1% year-on-year [28] - The domestic air cargo flight volume increased by 7.61% year-on-year in July 2025, while international flights rose by 23.31% [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Consider opportunities in low-altitude economy investments, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, with recommendations for Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Pay attention to the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The State Post Bureau reported that in July 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the business revenue was 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive growth in the express delivery market, with companies actively expanding diverse demand scenarios to meet consumer needs for summer appliance deliveries [1][2] - From January to July, the express delivery business volume distribution among eastern, central, and western regions was 71.5%, 19.4%, and 9.1% respectively, indicating a trend of industry expansion towards central and western regions [2] Group 2: Industry Competition and Regulation - The Beijing and Baoji express delivery associations issued a "resist involution" initiative, promoting fair competition and urging companies to enhance core competitiveness and fulfill corporate responsibilities [2][3] - The Jiangsu Provincial Postal Administration announced plans to initiate an "anti-involution" campaign due to severe impacts from price wars, calling for compliance with legal requirements and the elimination of irrational competition [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Milky Way's 2025 semi-annual report showed a 13.12% year-on-year increase in net profit, with significant growth in distribution business driven by new platform expansions [4] - Debon Holdings reported a 11.43% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant drop in net profit by 84.34%, indicating short-term pressure on performance [5] Group 4: Aviation Industry - The China Air Transport Association released a self-discipline convention aimed at guiding high-quality development in the aviation industry, focusing on safety, service quality, and operational efficiency [6] - Direct flights between China and India are expected to resume after five years, potentially announced around the time of Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China [6] Group 5: Shipping and Port Industry - The potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of oil sanctions could significantly impact the crude oil tanker market, with two possible scenarios affecting supply and demand dynamics [7][8] - Brazil's iron ore exports have seen a notable increase, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons, supporting the bulk shipping market [9] Group 6: Logistics and Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for July 2025, with significant contributions from specific highway segments [13] - National logistics operations remained orderly from August 4 to August 10, with increases in both railway and highway freight transport [13]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.4 billion pieces in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [4][25]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery sector is gaining traction, with associations in Beijing and Baoji advocating for fair competition and the cessation of irrational price wars [5]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards the central and western regions of China, with the proportion of express delivery business volume in these areas increasing [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Milky Way reported a 17.4% increase in revenue to 7.035 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 13.12% year-on-year [6]. - Debon Express achieved a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 11.43%, but faced a significant drop in net profit by 84.34% [7][8]. - The new management at Debon Express is expected to focus on improving service quality and operational efficiency, which may enhance revenue quality [8]. Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential growth [15]. - The release of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" aims to promote high-quality development and fair competition in the aviation market [9]. - The restoration of direct flights between China and India is anticipated, which could enhance passenger transport volumes [9]. Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The oil tanker market may be influenced by the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, which could lead to a reduction in old tanker capacity [10]. - Brazil's iron ore exports have significantly increased, supporting the bulk shipping market, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons [11]. - China's port cargo throughput increased by 10.87% week-on-week to 26.894 million tons, while container throughput rose by 19.58% to 679,000 TEU [78]. Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% increase in toll revenue in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 411 million yuan [14]. - National logistics operations remained stable, with rail freight increasing by 1.29% and highway freight traffic up by 1.34% during early August [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the weekly data of green bonds from August 11 - August 15, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - 10 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 1.3131 billion yuan, an increase of 221.8 million yuan from the previous week [1]. - The issuance terms are mostly 3 years; issuers include local state - owned enterprises, central state - owned enterprises, central enterprise subsidiaries, and central financial enterprises [1]. - The issuer's main credit ratings are AAA and AA+; issuers are from Beijing, Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia [1]. - The types of issued bonds include ultra - short - term financing bills, ABNs from the Dealer Association, commercial bank ordinary bonds, medium - term notes, private corporate bonds, and general corporate bonds [1]. Secondary Market Trading - The weekly trading volume of green bonds totaled 5.78 billion yuan, an increase of 1.04 billion yuan from the previous week [2]. - By bond type, the top three in trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds (2.61 billion yuan), financial institution bonds (2.13 billion yuan), and interest - rate bonds (630 million yuan) [2]. - By issuance term, green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 78.96%, indicating continuous market popularity [2]. - By issuer's industry, the top three industries in trading volume are finance (2.47 billion yuan), public utilities (1.2 billion yuan), and transportation equipment (180 million yuan) [2]. - By issuer's region, the top three regions in trading volume are Beijing (1.75 billion yuan), Guangdong (670 million yuan), and Hebei (510 million yuan) [2]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds is not large, with the discount trading range smaller than the premium trading range, and the proportion of discount trading smaller than that of premium trading [3]. - Among the discount bonds, the top three discount rates are for 25 ShuiNeng G1 (- 0.7750%), 21 LinChuan Green Bond 02 (- 0.7466%), and 21 XinYi Green Bond (- 0.2536%), and the rest of the discount rates are within - 0.20%. The main industries of the issuers are finance, construction, and public utilities, and the implied ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AAA -, AA, and AA+ [3]. - Among the premium bonds, the top four premium rates are for 20 HuNan Bond 65 (0.9090%), 25 XiangYu JinXiang MTN003 (green) (0.7237%), 20 GuangDong Bond 05 (0.6806%), and 20 GuangDong Bond 16 (0.6433%), and the rest of the premium rates are within 0.60%. The main industries of the issuers are finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment, and the implied ratings of ChinaBond are mainly AA+, AA, and AAA - [3].