中金公司发布轻工零售美妆行业2026年展望称，展望2026年，伴随着消费者对情绪、功能价值的持续追 求，产业供给升级和消费政策的配套支持，轻工零售美妆行业叙事逻辑从"扩容"进一步转向"提质"，投 资应坚守三大方向：情绪消费、基本面反转和新技术催化下的产业变革。分行业展望：①美妆医美：研 报判断2026板块增长更多来自供给侧驱动，如PDRN等成分创新和功能升级带来的结构性机会，格局上 国货龙头份额仍有望继续提升。②潮玩零售：研报判断潮玩品类仍将在全球范围内持续高景气，龙头持 续的品类和产品创新、IP深度运营、渠道迭代升级有望创造新的增长机遇，同时出海仍方兴未艾。③轻 工制造：研报判断行业需求弱复苏但存在结构性机会，看好具备产能优势、品牌优势的出口型企业，和 抓住产业变革机会布局新业务焕发成长新动能的企业。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a high position in the market and focusing on specific sectors such as overseas expansion and Bay Area-related fields, including power grids, engineering machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and non-ferrous metals [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic data for October shows a general slowdown in industrial, consumption, and investment growth, with retail sales related to trade-in programs declining by 2.2% and fixed asset investment down 1.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - CPI turned positive at 0.2% in October, while PPI narrowed to -2.1%. Expectations for 2026 indicate a potential rise in CPI to 0.5% and PPI to -1, which may benefit value-style sectors related to price increases [1][6]. - The financial data indicates a decline in social financing, credit, and M1, M2 growth rates, reflecting weak demand in the real economy, but a trend of deposit activation continues [1][13]. Economic Performance - Industrial value-added and service production indices decreased to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively, while social retail sales growth fell from 3.0% to 2.9% [2]. - Fixed asset investment from January to October saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate investment showing a significant drop [5]. Sector Analysis - Most industries experienced a slowdown, with only a few, such as utilities and automotive, showing growth. The energy and metals sectors are under scrutiny, with oil processing remaining high and expected Brent crude oil prices around $65 per barrel in Q4 [3][11]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, particularly in home appliances and automotive, with declines between 7% and 15% [4]. Market Strategy - The current market shows a divergence in performance, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors like batteries, chemicals, and aquaculture, while being cautious of market volatility [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to benefit from a weakening economy, with predictions of accelerated monetary easing towards the end of the year [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that demand will remain weak in 2026, necessitating further policy support to stimulate effective demand and reduce ineffective supply [7][8]. - The light industry and beauty sector are expected to require policy stimulation, with a focus on solid growth segments like trendy toys and beauty products [17][20].