消费供需四象限策略剖析 20251215 未来一年，国内消费板块的投资机会主要基于国内消费逐渐复苏的大背景。然 而，在完全走出通缩之前，市场仍将面临内卷的环境。以 2021 年的医美板块 为例，当时由于供不应求，吸引了大量企业进入，导致短期内供过于求。因此， 我们需要在策略中避开可能出现业绩和估值双杀的板块，同时布局有潜力转好 的低位板块。 当前国内消费市场面临哪些挑战？ 当前国内消费市场面临几个主要挑战。首先是薪酬结构问题。在 CPI 通缩环境 下，企业普遍通过降本增效和裁员来改善利润空间，中产阶级的薪酬难以得到 提升。其次是杠杆能力问题，有钱人财富集中度提高，而中产阶级因房贷压力 大、收入增长缓慢，难以借贷消费。此外，尽管政府可能推出新房贴息政策， 全球贸易形势不确定性增加，内需的重要性凸显，以应对外贸风险，尤 其是在出口数据不佳和海外 PMI 走弱的情况下，加强内需成为确保 GDP 稳定增长的重要策略。 高端消费市场正在逐步恢复，高端酒店、奢侈游轮及博彩行业在今年三 季度均表现出色，高端商场品牌入驻数量显著增加，验证了高端消费的 恢复趋势。 但对已购房者支持力度有限。 如何理解"2035 年收入倍增计划 ...

消费供需四象限策略剖析 20251215 摘要 "2035 年收入倍增计划"旨在提升人均 GDP 至 2 万美元以上，通过发 展新质生产力和实现共同富裕来推动长期消费增长，例如半导体产业链 和健保制度。 未来一年消费复苏的关键在于财富效应，高净值人群消费意愿增强，但 大众消费者购买力恢复受薪酬结构和杠杆能力限制，需关注政府政策， 如 CPI 预期管理和新房贴息。 高净值人群与大众消费者差距扩大，中产阶级受房贷压力和薪酬停滞影 响，消费贷贴息政策效果有限，需政策干预改善杠杆能力。 2026 年消费市场关注 CPI 预期、转移支付（服务消费）、财富效应 （高端消费），以及房贷贴息等超预期政策，以实现薪资、消费、就业 正循环。 增值税转移至消费税可促使地方政府更支持刺激消费，实现长远发展目 标，短期可能对消费者有压力，但长远有助于地方政府促进本地经济发 展，并通过 PPI 向 CPI 传导刺激内需。 Q&A 如何看待未来一年国内消费板块的投资机会？ 未来一年，国内消费板块的投资机会主要基于国内消费逐渐复苏的大背景。然 而，在完全走出通缩之前，市场仍将面临内卷的环境。以 2021 年的医美板块 为例，当时由于供不应求 ...

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]

记者丨李益文 12月4日，玻尿酸龙头华熙生物（688363.SH）举行2025年第三季度业绩说明会期间，公司股价震荡下跌，盘中一度跌至45.25元/ 股(后复权47.62元/股)，较发行价47.79元/股破发。 行业竞争格局的变化更让华熙生物承压。今年5月，作为玻料酸龙头的华熙生物与巨子生物就"透明质酸是否过时"展开激烈争 论，华熙生物在官方公众号发文称，重组胶原蛋白概念是资本构建的题材"幻象"，强调透明质酸在衰老干预中的关键地位。但 市场趋势似乎偏向后者，弗若斯特沙利文数据预测，2026年基于胶原蛋白的皮肤护理市场份额将超过透明质酸，年复合增长率 达52.6%，2027年国内胶原蛋白整体市场规模将达1738亿元。 面对多重压力，华熙生物表示，公司已推出组织架构变革，管理团队已重回业务一线。同时，公司也在战略性前沿领域持续投 入，基于合成生物技术平台研发的PDRN、麦角硫因等新一代生物活性物质，有望为公司2026年原料业务业绩带来增量空间。 会上，有投资者直言："今天此时股价已经跌破了发行价，公司有什么措施扭转跌势吗？"对此，华熙生物董事长兼总经理赵燕 回应称，我们理解投资者对于股价跌破发行价的关切，公司管理 ...

12月4日，玻尿酸龙头华熙生物（688363.SH）举行2025年第三季度业绩说明会期间，公司股价震荡下跌，盘中一度跌至45.25元/ 股(后复权47.62元/股)，较发行价47.79元/股破发。 行业竞争格局的变化更让华熙生物承压。今年5月，作为玻料酸龙头的华熙生物与巨子生物就"透明质酸是否过时"展开激烈争 论，华熙生物在官方公众号发文称，重组胶原蛋白概念是资本构建的题材"幻象"，强调透明质酸在衰老干预中的关键地位。但 市场趋势似乎偏向后者，弗若斯特沙利文数据预测，2026年基于胶原蛋白的皮肤护理市场份额将超过透明质酸，年复合增长率 达52.6%，2027年国内胶原蛋白整体市场规模将达1738亿元。 面对多重压力，华熙生物表示，公司已推出组织架构变革，管理团队已重回业务一线。同时，公司也在战略性前沿领域持续投 入，基于合成生物技术平台研发的PDRN、麦角硫因等新一代生物活性物质，有望为公司2026年原料业务业绩带来增量空间。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 作为2019年11月登陆科创板的"玻尿酸第一股"，华熙生物曾创下辉煌战绩。上市后股价最高飙涨至308.77元/股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Bio's nutrition science segment has achieved a breakthrough, maintaining revenue growth while achieving quarterly profitability for the first time in Q3 [1] Short-term Outlook - Business recovery and expansion are expected in the short term, with skin science innovation and transformation business anticipated to continue adjustments, leading to gradual revenue recovery [1] - The raw materials business, leveraging commercialized synthetic biological new materials like PDRN and PQQ, is expected to achieve steady growth and become a significant growth engine for the company [1] Long-term Strategy - The company focuses on aging intervention, building an integrated solution covering raw materials, medical aesthetics, skincare, and nutrition, based on its leading synthetic biological manufacturing capabilities [1] - The business ecosystem is designed to enhance the company's cutting-edge R&D influence and drive brand value enhancement [1] Financial Projections - The expected EPS for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 0.81, 1.08, and 1.30 yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Ice Wheel Environment (000811) as a leading player in industrial refrigeration equipment, driven by AIDC and nuclear power business growth [5] - The company is experiencing accelerated demand in the data center sector due to a surge in AI computing needs, having served numerous domestic and international data center clients [5] - Revenue projections for Ice Wheel Environment are estimated at 6,959 million, 7,849 million, and 8,637 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.9%, 12.8%, and 10.0% [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The cosmetics industry is characterized by stability and new developments, with a focus on strong brand groups that can enhance market share and profit realization [6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, particularly in segments like PDRN, recombinant collagen, and hair loss treatment, which are anticipated to have a better competitive landscape [6] - The light industry is witnessing a trend of companies accelerating their overseas expansion, leading to higher profit margins and improved competitive dynamics in foreign markets [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic report indicates that recent fluctuations in the US stock market are attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and uncertainties in industry outlooks, but the medium-term trend remains positive [7] - The strategy report suggests focusing on large-cap consumer stocks, particularly in food and beverage, travel services, and transportation sectors, as these are expected to perform well in December due to improved liquidity and stable earnings [8] - The light industry report emphasizes the shift from passive to active overseas market exploration, highlighting opportunities in capacity, product, and brand expansion [10]

Core Viewpoint - The PDRN anti-aging market is rapidly gaining traction, with major beauty brands like L'Oréal launching products centered around PDRN, indicating a significant shift in the skincare industry towards this ingredient [3][5][7]. Market Dynamics - L'Oréal's recent release of the "PDRN Skincare Application: Technology and Innovation White Paper (2025)" marks a strategic move to establish authority in the PDRN space, a rare occurrence for the company [5][13]. - The global PDRN market is projected to grow from approximately 180 million in 2023 to 3 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% from 2024 to 2030, showcasing strong growth potential [7][10]. - PDRN is anticipated to become a benchmark skincare ingredient, similar to hyaluronic acid and collagen, due to its robust biological activity and high development ceiling [7][10]. Competitive Landscape - Numerous brands are entering the PDRN market, including domestic brands like Zhenmei and Huaxi Biology, as well as Unilever's AHC brand, which is targeting the medical beauty segment with new product launches [5][10][25]. - Zhenmei has established a first-mover advantage in the topical PDRN segment, utilizing proprietary technology to enhance skin penetration [17][19]. - Unilever's AHC brand has successfully launched products like the "B5 Star Mask," leveraging consumer demand for "water-light skin" effects while maintaining a strong medical beauty positioning [23][25]. Scientific and Technical Considerations - PDRN's entry into traditional beauty products is facilitated by its established efficacy and safety in the medical beauty sector, reducing the need for extensive consumer education [10][11]. - However, the scientific evidence supporting PDRN's efficacy in traditional skincare remains insufficient, necessitating further research to build consumer trust [14][15][16]. - The lack of standardized quality for PDRN raw materials poses challenges, as variations in source, preparation methods, and molecular weight can affect efficacy [15][31]. Future Outlook - The PDRN market is entering a phase of intensified competition, with brands focusing on research and development to establish technological barriers and enhance product efficacy [29][30]. - Companies are exploring diverse sources of PDRN, including plant and microbial origins, to differentiate their offerings and improve product stability [30][31]. - The potential applications of PDRN extend beyond facial care to include scalp health and eye care, indicating a broadening of its market scope [33].

Core Insights - The conference aims to inject strong momentum into the innovation and development of the cosmetics industry by focusing on the integration of Nobel Prize-winning technologies and industrial transformation [1][5] - The Nobel Prize serves as a significant driver for innovation in the cosmetics sector, with recent awards influencing the development of nucleic acid-based raw materials and AI applications in product formulation [2] Group 1: Conference Overview - The "7th Seminar on Frontier Technology Transformation of Bioactive Peptides" was held on November 18 in Jiaxing, Zhejiang, co-hosted by Zhejiang Tsinghua Yangtze River Delta Research Institute and Hemei Biotechnology [1] - The theme of the conference was "Nobel Prize Inspiring New Momentum for Innovation in the Cosmetics Industry," gathering Nobel laureates, researchers, and representatives from leading brands [1] Group 2: Nobel Prize Impact - The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is expected to stimulate a surge in the development of nucleic acid-based raw materials in functional skincare [2] - The recognition of AI technology in the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics is anticipated to accelerate the application of AI in daily chemical formulation design and efficacy validation [2] Group 3: Academic and Industry Collaboration - The conference featured a keynote speech by Michael Levitt, 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, discussing the potential for infinite technological innovation through bioactive molecules [3] - Discussions included the integration of basic research in immunology with applications in skin and hair anti-aging regulation [3] Group 4: Practical Applications and Innovations - Various industry experts shared case studies on the application of AI in discovering innovative ingredients and the differentiation of PDRN in product development [4] - The conference highlighted the importance of innovative technologies in establishing long-term competitive advantages for brands in the cosmetics industry [4] Group 5: Industry Development and Challenges - The seminar successfully created a high-quality exchange platform for the integration of academia, industry, and research, addressing challenges such as the difficulty of technology implementation and homogenization of efficacy mechanisms [5] - The event aims to facilitate a shift from raw material competition to technology and innovation competition, contributing to the high-quality development of the cosmetics industry [5]

Core Insights - L'Oréal China released a white paper on PDRN skincare applications during the 8th China International Import Expo, outlining the scientific and application landscape of PDRN in the beauty sector [1][2] - The white paper serves as a guide for the future development of PDRN, showcasing L'Oréal's 20 years of expertise in skin science and consumer insights [1][2] Group 1: PDRN Research and Development - L'Oréal has established a comprehensive innovation system in China since 2005, focusing on consumer insights, scientific research, and product development [2] - The white paper consolidates L'Oréal's latest research on PDRN, detailing its scientific mechanisms, clinical evidence, and application prospects while identifying knowledge gaps and potential risks [2][3] Group 2: Expert Discussions and Applications - Experts discussed PDRN's applications and future prospects at the release event, highlighting L'Oréal's advantages in R&D, including a rich pipeline of biological materials and collaborations with leading companies in fermentation [3] - Lancôme, as the first brand to apply PDRN within the group, shared strategic considerations and consumer insights regarding its application in beauty products [3] Group 3: Product Launches and Future Plans - L'Oréal has already integrated PDRN into its brands, with Lancôme's "Rejuvenating" cream inspired by advanced PDRN skin technology from South Korea [4] - The company plans to continue exploring PDRN's potential in the beauty sector, launching more products and promoting industry collaboration to advance skin science [4]