Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.60 / HKD 6.26 [7][5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in sulfur prices due to supply-demand imbalances, with prices rising by 152% to RMB 3930 per ton as of November 14, 2025. This trend is expected to benefit the refining sector of the company [1][4] - The report anticipates an 8.6% year-on-year growth in sulfur consumption in China for 2024, driven by demand from various sectors including lithium batteries and new materials [1][2] - The company is positioned as the largest sulfur supplier in China with an annual production capacity of 8.88 million tons, which is expected to enhance its profitability amid rising sulfur prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global sulfur supply is facing constraints due to peak crude oil processing in China and reduced overseas supply, while demand is steadily increasing from sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and new materials [1][2] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's apparent sulfur consumption reached 16.75 million tons, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with imports accounting for 47% of the total [2] Refining Sector Insights - The refining sector's growth is being challenged by structural changes in natural gas supply and a decline in independent refinery operations, leading to limited growth in sulfur production from crude oil [3] - The report notes that geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have tightened international sulfur supply due to reduced refinery operations and export bans [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 36.8 billion for 2025, with upward revisions for 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts to RMB 46.3 billion and RMB 54.6 billion, respectively [5][11] - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.0x for A-shares and 15.0x for H-shares for 2026, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and transformation into new materials and non-oil businesses [5][12]

中金 11 月数说资产 20251114 10 月份的经济数据表现如何？有哪些主要变化？ 10 月份的经济数据整体放缓，主要由于技术提升、季末效应消退以及需求依然 疲软。具体来看，工业增加值和服务业生产指数分别从上个月的 6.5%和 5.6% 下降至 4.9%和 4.6%。消费方面，社会消费品零售总额增速从 3.0%回落至 2.9%，其中以旧换新的相关品类零售增速降至负 2.2%。固定资产投资 1-10 月累计同比从上个月的负 0.5%进一步回落至负 1.7%，单月环比也从负 0.9% 回落到负 1.6%。 分行业来看，各行业表现如何？ 分行业来看，除了公用事业、汽车、交运设备等少数行业同比增速有所回升外， 大部分行业增速均有回落。工业方面，出口交货值同比转负，同时内需偏弱， 能源金属方面，10 月原油加工量维持高位，石油表观消费同比增长 4%-5%，支撑油价，预计四季度布伦特油价中枢约 65 美元/桶。基础金 属下游需求走弱，对黑色金属价格持谨慎态度，长期看好 2026 年铜铝 价格中枢。 轻工零售美妆行业内销板块业绩偏弱，需政策刺激，但赛道间分化明显， 看好潮玩、美妆等基本面坚实且具成长性的赛道，以及 A ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with low chemical price indices and industry profit margins. The price index for Chinese chemical products has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to now, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to August 2025, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q2 2025 were 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also at low levels in recent years [2][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Recovery Potential - The chemical manufacturing industry has faced a downturn for over three years, with increasing midstream chemical production capacity and pressure on downstream demand, alongside falling prices of upstream commodities like oil and coal [2][5]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a consistent decline in capital expenditures for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][9]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances. A total of 11 million tons of chemical production capacity is set to exit Europe between 2023 and October 2024 [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift in policy aimed at controlling new refining capacity and managing the pace of new ethylene and PX production capacity to prevent overcapacity in coal-based methanol [3][10]. - The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio was 2.07x as of October 22, 2025, at the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities as favorable supply-side factors accumulate [3][20]. - The demand for bulk chemicals remains weak globally, but emerging manufacturing sectors related to AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries are driving rapid growth in material demand [20][16].