化工行业下行周期已持续3年半时间，化工价格指数和利润率均处于低位。受行业供需格局承压及上游 大宗原材料价格回落影响，2025年初至今中国化工产品价格指数下降10.3%，目前处于2012年以来的 10.4%分位。2H22以来中游化工行业下行周期已持续3年半时间，2025年1-10月化学原料及制品利润总 额/营业收入比值为4.14%，处于2017年以来低位。3Q25石化化工上市公司毛利率/净利率15.9%/4.6%也 是过去几年较低水平。 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，石化化工行业下行周期已持续约3年半时间，随着行业资本 开支持续下降及海外落后产能加快退出，该行认为行业产能将进入低增长阶段，同时以行业自律为主的 反内卷也加快了相关产品盈利修复。随着供给端利好因素持续累积及新能源等领域需求的快速增长，该 行预计化工行业周期拐点有望到来。 中金公司主要观点如下： 12月11日基础化工(中信)市净率2.43x，处于2012年以来46%分位；中证细分化工市净率2.31x，处于2012 年以来43%分位。随着中游化工供给端利好因素持续累积及新能源领域材料需求快速增长，该行认为行 业产能周期拐点有望到来，将驱动行业 ...

编者按 今年7月起，多种化工品、工业制品、原料价格掀起上涨浪潮，引发市场的广泛关注。价格跳动的曲线 背后，藏着市场最关切的三重追问：此轮涨价由何驱动？这波涨势能持续多久？产业链上下游企业的业 绩能否借此迎来修复契机，又将如何重塑行业竞争格局？ 春江水暖"价"先知。涨价，是经济脉络复苏中最灵敏的脉动信号。上海证券报微信公众号推出《市场 探"涨"》系列报道，意在凸显这一系列价格变化背后的市场活力与商业逻辑变迁。透过"涨"声，倾听复 苏脚步；在潮起潮落之间，探见未来可期。 在化工行业被机构判断迎来"产能周期拐点"的关键时刻，一细分品种——硫磺的价格持续飙升，迅速成 为市场焦点。 隆众资讯显示，12月5日，镇江港主流颗粒硫磺价格已攀升至4115元/吨，触及近十年的高点。 "短期内硫磺现货市场将大概率维持高位盘整走势。"隆众资讯硫磺分析师司斌对上证报记者表示，一方 面，当前外盘市场暂无新高价成单消息，市场难以从外盘端获取新上涨驱动力。另一方面，在市价已突 破近十年高点的背景下，终端生产企业和贸易商采购节奏会明显放缓，不会贸然追高拿货，僵持博弈将 成为市场主流。 海外供给紧张成主因 2025年下半年以来，国内硫磺市场持续 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% to close at 3931.05 points, with a high of 3967.97 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76% to 12980.82 points, reaching a peak of 13226.04 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.12% to 3042.34 points, with a maximum of 3137.07 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.67% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was the China Southern Shenzhen 100 ETF with a return of 0.34% [2] - The top industry index ETF was the China Tai Zhongzheng All Index Building Materials ETF, yielding 2.02% [2] - The highest return among strategy index ETFs was the China Tai Baichuan Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility ETF at 0.74% [2] - The best performing thematic index ETF was the Yinhua Zhongzheng Mainland Real Estate Theme ETF, with a return of 0.84% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - Guotai Zhongzheng All Index Building Materials ETF (2.02%) [4] - Fuguo Zhongzheng All Index Building Materials ETF (1.56%) [4] - Huabao Zhongzheng 800 Real Estate ETF (1.52%) [4] - The worst performing ETFs included: - Penghua SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy ETF (-3.01%) [4] - Yifangda SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy ETF (-2.91%) [4] - Fuguo SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy ETF (-2.78%) [4] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Southern Zhongzheng 500 ETF (7.6 billion) [6] - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (7.59 billion) [6] - Southern Zhongzheng 1000 ETF (4.18 billion) [6] - The largest outflows were from: - Huabao Zhongzheng Bank ETF (4.33 billion) [6] - Huatai Baichuan SSE 300 ETF (4.07 billion) [6] - Huabao Zhongzheng Financial Technology Theme ETF (3.25 billion) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The highest margin buy amounts were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (5.56 billion) [8] - Guotai Zhongzheng All Index Securities Company ETF (4.8 billion) [8] - Yifangda ChiNext ETF (4.78 billion) [8] - The largest margin sell amounts were: - Southern Zhongzheng 500 ETF (37.88 million) [8] - Huatai Baichuan SSE 300 ETF (37.87 million) [8] - Huaxia Zhongzheng A500 ETF (25.01 million) [8] Institutional Insights - Huafu Securities suggests that the building materials capacity cycle may reach an inflection point due to accelerated expectations of "anti-involution" [9] - The combination of declining interest rates and monetary support for housing may stabilize the real estate market, potentially boosting post-cycle demand [9] - Debon Securities highlights that undervalued financial stocks, such as insurance and banks, possess defensive allocation value amid a weak market [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.60 / HKD 6.26 [7][5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in sulfur prices due to supply-demand imbalances, with prices rising by 152% to RMB 3930 per ton as of November 14, 2025. This trend is expected to benefit the refining sector of the company [1][4] - The report anticipates an 8.6% year-on-year growth in sulfur consumption in China for 2024, driven by demand from various sectors including lithium batteries and new materials [1][2] - The company is positioned as the largest sulfur supplier in China with an annual production capacity of 8.88 million tons, which is expected to enhance its profitability amid rising sulfur prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global sulfur supply is facing constraints due to peak crude oil processing in China and reduced overseas supply, while demand is steadily increasing from sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and new materials [1][2] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's apparent sulfur consumption reached 16.75 million tons, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with imports accounting for 47% of the total [2] Refining Sector Insights - The refining sector's growth is being challenged by structural changes in natural gas supply and a decline in independent refinery operations, leading to limited growth in sulfur production from crude oil [3] - The report notes that geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have tightened international sulfur supply due to reduced refinery operations and export bans [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 36.8 billion for 2025, with upward revisions for 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts to RMB 46.3 billion and RMB 54.6 billion, respectively [5][11] - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.0x for A-shares and 15.0x for H-shares for 2026, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and transformation into new materials and non-oil businesses [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a high position in the market and focusing on specific sectors such as overseas expansion and Bay Area-related fields, including power grids, engineering machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and non-ferrous metals [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic data for October shows a general slowdown in industrial, consumption, and investment growth, with retail sales related to trade-in programs declining by 2.2% and fixed asset investment down 1.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - CPI turned positive at 0.2% in October, while PPI narrowed to -2.1%. Expectations for 2026 indicate a potential rise in CPI to 0.5% and PPI to -1, which may benefit value-style sectors related to price increases [1][6]. - The financial data indicates a decline in social financing, credit, and M1, M2 growth rates, reflecting weak demand in the real economy, but a trend of deposit activation continues [1][13]. Economic Performance - Industrial value-added and service production indices decreased to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively, while social retail sales growth fell from 3.0% to 2.9% [2]. - Fixed asset investment from January to October saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate investment showing a significant drop [5]. Sector Analysis - Most industries experienced a slowdown, with only a few, such as utilities and automotive, showing growth. The energy and metals sectors are under scrutiny, with oil processing remaining high and expected Brent crude oil prices around $65 per barrel in Q4 [3][11]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, particularly in home appliances and automotive, with declines between 7% and 15% [4]. Market Strategy - The current market shows a divergence in performance, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors like batteries, chemicals, and aquaculture, while being cautious of market volatility [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to benefit from a weakening economy, with predictions of accelerated monetary easing towards the end of the year [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that demand will remain weak in 2026, necessitating further policy support to stimulate effective demand and reduce ineffective supply [7][8]. - The light industry and beauty sector are expected to require policy stimulation, with a focus on solid growth segments like trendy toys and beauty products [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with low chemical price indices and industry profit margins. The price index for Chinese chemical products has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to now, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to August 2025, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q2 2025 were 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also at low levels in recent years [2][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Recovery Potential - The chemical manufacturing industry has faced a downturn for over three years, with increasing midstream chemical production capacity and pressure on downstream demand, alongside falling prices of upstream commodities like oil and coal [2][5]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a consistent decline in capital expenditures for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][9]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances. A total of 11 million tons of chemical production capacity is set to exit Europe between 2023 and October 2024 [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift in policy aimed at controlling new refining capacity and managing the pace of new ethylene and PX production capacity to prevent overcapacity in coal-based methanol [3][10]. - The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio was 2.07x as of October 22, 2025, at the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities as favorable supply-side factors accumulate [3][20]. - The demand for bulk chemicals remains weak globally, but emerging manufacturing sectors related to AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries are driving rapid growth in material demand [20][16].