Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].

金十数据7月31日讯，周四公布数据显示，加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%符合预期，但部分行业复苏有 望推动6月经济回升。加拿大统计局初步预估，6月GDP或环比增长0.1%，这意味着二季度年化增长率 可能达到0.1%。这一预期增长与多数机构预测的萎缩前景相悖，最终数据将于下月公布。统计显示，5 月经济下滑主要受零售贸易板块拖累，该板块萎缩1.2%，12个子行业中有7个出现收缩。占GDP总量 75%的服务业整体持平，其中房地产和运输业增长抵消了零售业下滑。占经济总量25%的商品生产行业 中，采矿、采石及油气开采板块表现最弱，当月萎缩1%。不过制造业环比增长0.7%，扭转4月1.8%的跌 势，统计机构称库存增加是主要推动因素。 加拿大5月GDP环比微降0.1% 二季度或可避免经济萎缩 ...