来源：金十数据 11月美国非农新增6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%，为四年来新高，8月和9月数据合计下修3.3万人。以 下是非农就业报告全文。 美国劳工统计局今日发布报告称，11月非农就业人数变化不大，仅增加6.4万人，自4月以来整体几乎没 有净增长。11月失业率为4.6%，与9月相比变化不大。11月医疗保健和建筑业就业人数有所增加，而联 邦政府部门的就业岗位继续减少。 本次新闻稿基于两项月度调查的数据。一项是家庭调查，按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况； 另一项是机构调查，按行业衡量非农就业人数、工作时长和收入水平。 联邦政府停摆 由于联邦拨款中断（10月1日至11月12日），11月2025年数据的发布比原计划推迟了一周以上。家庭调 查和机构调查在11月均需要额外的数据收集和处理时间。美国劳工统计局未发布2025年10月的《就业形 势》报告。 家庭调查数据 11月失业率为4.6%，失业人数为780万人，与9月相比变化不大。这两项指标均高于去年11月，当时失 业率为4.2%，失业人数为710万人。（由于联邦政府停摆，2025年10月未进行家庭调查。本新闻稿中对 家庭调查数据的分析，如无特别说明，均指9月 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest monthly gain since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the previous value of 4.3% and higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, indicating a structural change as more potential workers entered the job market [3] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was recorded at 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%, while the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The healthcare sector was a key driver of job growth, adding 43,000 jobs in September, with outpatient care contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 [3] - Conversely, several sectors experienced job losses, including a reduction of 3,000 jobs in federal government employment, continuing a trend of workforce downsizing since January [4] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decrease of 25,000 jobs, linked to the slowdown in e-commerce growth and supply chain adjustments, while manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs amid ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, spot gold prices initially dropped nearly $20 but later rebounded as the market reacted to dovish signals from wage growth and rising unemployment [4] - Non-U.S. currencies strengthened, with the euro rising 30 points against the dollar and the pound increasing nearly 35 points, while the dollar index faced downward pressure [4] - Traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the likelihood of a cut in December remains low [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].