周四晚，美国劳工统计局发布了9月季调后非农就业数据，新增就业人口录得11.9万人，大幅超出市场预期 的5万人，创下4月以来的最大月度增幅。但前值数据被大幅下修，8月新增就业从最初公布的2.2万人修正 为-0.4万人。 本次数据还对前期就业数据进行了大幅修正。7月非农新增就业从7.9万人下修至7.2万人，8月从2.2万人下 修至-0.4万人，两轮数据合计下修3.3万人。 医疗保健行业成为就业增长的核心引擎，当月新增4.3万个岗位，其中门诊医疗服务贡献2.3万个，医院新 增1.6万个。餐饮服务和饮酒场所的招聘活动同样活跃，新增3.7万个岗位。 与此相反，多个行业出现就业收缩。联邦政府就业减少3000人，自1月峰值以来累计减少9.7万人，显示政 府部门精简人员的趋势仍在延续。运输和仓储行业减少2.5万个岗位，仓储、快递及信使岗位同步缩减，与 电商行业增速放缓及供应链调整密切相关。备受关注的制造业再度减少6000个岗位，尽管白宫持续强调制 造业投资，但在经济复苏动能放缓的背景下，制造业就业仍面临压力。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线快速下挫近20美元，。但随后，薪资月率放缓、失业率上升等偏鸽派信号逐渐 主导市场情绪，黄金价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].