广发宏观周度述评（第29期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-28期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年的经济节奏为什么是季末高、季初低 ？ 2025 年以来一个有意思的现象是：经济尤其是供给端高点位于季度末， 3 月、 6 月工业增加值同比分别为 7.7% 、 6.8% ，均明显超预期；季度初则放缓明显， 4 月、 7 月工业增加值同比分别为 6.1% 、 5.7% 。如果按照工业增加值、服务业生产指数进行生产法 GDP 指数模拟，则 3 月和 6 月均为 5.7% 、 5.5% ， 4 月和 7 月则分别为 5.4% 、 5.0% 。从 PMI 来看也结论类似， 3 月和 6 月均环比反弹， 4 月和 7 月均环比回落。 我们理解其中有两个关键原因： 原因之一是出口交货节奏的影响。今年出口交货值的两个高点就位于 3 月和 6 月，同比分别为 7.7% 、 4.0% ，其余月份（不含春节）同比增速却只有 0-1% 。这应和企业应对贸易环境不确定性有关。 4 月美国"对等关税"落地之前， 3 月企业加快了出口交货； 5 月中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 ， 6 月企业加快了出 口交货。 原因之二是政策节奏的影响。 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].