Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics indicate a shift in gold's role from a passive safe-haven asset to an active hedge, driven by improving global supply chain cooperation and economic signals suggesting a post-cycle phase [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global supply chain cooperation has improved significantly, with the U.S. reaching key mineral agreements and reducing tariff risks, alleviating concerns over extreme supply disruptions [2]. - This cooperation has strengthened raw material supply stability and reduced the urgent demand for traditional safe-haven assets, compressing gold's "safe-haven premium" [2]. - The recent framework for cooperation between the U.S. and Asian economies is interpreted as a positive signal for external friction reduction and industrial chain stability, boosting risk asset sentiment [2]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The latest housing price index for 20 major cities shows a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%, the lowest in over two years and below the 3% inflation level, indicating that nominal asset prices are rising while real household wealth is shrinking [2]. - The combination of high volatility in equity assets, negative real returns in housing, and a cooling job market points to a post-cycle economic phase, where gold typically transitions from a passive hedge to an active hedge asset [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Global gold ETF holdings experienced slight outflows around October 24, marking the first net withdrawal in nearly a week, although this follows eight weeks of inflows and a cumulative increase of over 15% for the year [2]. - The current outflow appears to be a "high-level adjustment" rather than a mass exit, indicating a re-pricing of gold's risk premium rather than a liquidity crisis [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold price has retraced from a previous high of approximately $4381.29 to around $3920, with key Fibonacci retracement levels indicating support at $3972.61 (0.618 level) and $3845.97 (0.500 level) [4]. - The current price is above the 0.500 retracement level, suggesting that while a correction is underway, the overall upward trend remains intact [4]. - If the price declines further, the $3845-$3850 range will be a critical support zone, with additional support at $3719.34 (0.382 level) and $3562.65 (0.236 level) [4]. Group 5: Technical Indicators - The MACD indicator shows significant bearish signals, with the DIFF and DEA lines forming a death cross, indicating increasing bearish momentum [5]. - The RSI has dropped from an overbought level near 80 to approximately 46.35, suggesting a shift in market control from bulls to bears, but still has room before reaching extreme oversold conditions [5]. - Overall, the technical analysis indicates that gold may continue to experience downward pressure until it tests the key support levels, with the potential for recovery if these levels hold [5].

Economic Trends - The economic rhythm this year shows a pattern of high performance at the end of the quarter and low performance at the beginning, with industrial added value in March and June at 7.7% and 6.8% respectively, while April and July saw a decline to 6.1% and 5.7% [1][2] - The export delivery rhythm is influenced by trade uncertainties, with significant increases in export delivery values in March and June, reflecting companies' responses to the trade environment [2][3] - Policy impacts are also significant, with new monetary policies and support measures peaking in March and June, leading to a potential recovery in economic activity in September and October [3] Market Performance - In the first week of September, multiple asset classes experienced fluctuations, with global stock markets showing mixed results, and the G7 bond yields initially rising before declining [4][5] - The A-share market saw a decline in breadth, with high-growth narratives facing challenges, while sectors like electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains [9][10] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion and declining real interest rates, with London gold spot prices increasing by 4.82% to $3,594 per ounce [6][7] - Copper prices in the domestic market outperformed international prices, while oil prices fell due to oversupply expectations [7][8] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.32% [13][14] - The ISM services index for August reached 52.0, indicating resilience in the services sector despite employment pressures [16][17] Inflation and Price Trends - September's CPI and PPI are expected to show improvements, with CPI projected at 0.15% and PPI at -2.55%, indicating a shift towards a low base advantage [21][22] - The nominal GDP is estimated to rise to around 3.8%, with production indicators showing signs of seasonal recovery [18][19] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for an average growth rate of 7% in added value from 2025 to 2026 [27][28] - The government is also focusing on enhancing sports consumption and the overall sports industry, with a target to exceed 7 trillion yuan in scale by 2030 [32]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].