钨是一种重要的有色金属，熔点高、硬度高、密度高、导热性良好，在机械、能源开采、光伏、高端制造等领域用途广 泛。 2025年以来，钨价出现罕见上涨，钨精矿、仲钨酸铵、碳化钨等主要产品价格涨幅均超200%，引发市场关注。 据新华社，2025年，黄金经历了历史性牛市，国际金价年内涨幅一度超过约70%。在黄金行情带动下，其他贵金属价格也 水涨船高，国际白银期价2025年一度突破每盎司80美元，年内上涨约150%。 年内价格涨幅超200% 多重因素推动钨价大幅上涨 2025年，黑钨精矿价格从年初约14.3万元/吨上涨至45.9万元/吨，仲钨酸铵价格从年初约21.05万元/吨上涨至67.5万元/吨， 涨幅均超过200%。近期多份研究报告指出，供给收紧是推高钨价的主因。 国信证券数据显示，2024年中国钨矿产量为6.7万吨，占全球钨矿产量83%。 钨自1991年起被列为国家保护性开采矿种，实行总量控制和统一管理。2025年2月，商务部会同海关总署发布通知，对包 括钨在内的多种稀有金属产品及相关技术实施出口管制；同时，国内对走私和非法开采的打击力度持续加大。在政策约 束下，国内外现货资源均趋紧，进一步推高价格。 中信建投期货 ...

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钨价坚挺持续走高，12 月走势如何 20251208 摘要 国内宏观经济政策，特别是"十五规划"的落地，为钨行业的硬质合金 发展提供了明确指导，强调从规模扩张转向质量优先，推动去产能和高 端化转型，并具体落实到雅鲁藏布江工程等项目中，推动产业结构优化， 实现头部企业集中化。 2025 年前三季度，钨市场价格呈现不同阶段的增长特征，一、二季度 前端产品增长率较高，三季度钨粉和碳化钨粉的增长率超过前端产品。 10 月原料端涨幅明显超过后端产品，而 11 月份则显示出钨粉和碳化钨 粉的增长率显著上升，这一趋势可能延续至 12 月份。 近两年钨矿产量持续下降，相比 2024 年明显减少，国企矿山因完成指 标而停产，小矿山因环保及生产因素停滞，使得 10 月份钨矿产量不理 想。今年三季度 APT（氢氧化铵）产量下滑最为明显，尽管近两个月有 所提升，但幅度有限，12 月份 APT 供应缺口难以弥补，上涨概率较大。 2025 年受管制影响，中国钨出口表现不佳，而进口矿数量增加显著， 这种进出口状况短期内可能持续，对明年行情产生较大影响。如果明年 进口继续增加或出口放开，将直接影响市场供需平衡，政策变化对市场 产生重要影响， ...

Group 1: Tungsten Price Trends - Tungsten prices have been on the rise throughout the year, with significant increases noted in recent weeks. As of August 20, the price of 65% tungsten concentrate reached 217,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from August 19, marking a 51.75% increase since the beginning of the year [5][8] - The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 88.5% purity is reported at 311,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 47.98% increase year-to-date, while tungsten powder is priced at 482.5 yuan/kg, up 53.91% since the start of the year [5][8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is attributed to tightening supply and emerging demand. The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a control target for tungsten mining at 58,000 tons for 2025, a reduction of 4,000 tons or 6.45% from the previous year [8] - Major tungsten-producing regions, such as Jiangxi and Yunnan, have also seen reductions in mining output, contributing to a significant decrease in market circulation [8] - Demand for tungsten is growing in various sectors, including aerospace, defense, and electronics, with notable increases in the renewable energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic applications [8] Group 3: Market Performance and Stock Analysis - Tungsten-related stocks in the A-share market have generally performed well, with an average increase of 10.1% since August. Leading stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongtung High-tech, and Xianglu Tungsten, with respective gains of 22.48%, 18.99%, and 17.41% [10][14] - The valuation of some tungsten concept stocks remains low, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 30.24 times, and several stocks, including Shengtun Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, having P/E ratios below 20 times [11][12] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to report a net profit of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [12]

Group 1: Tungsten Price Trends - Tungsten prices have been on the rise this year, with significant increases in the past week, showing daily price hikes of 3,000 to 10,000 yuan per ton [5] - As of August 20, the price of 65% tungsten concentrate reached 217,000 yuan per ton, up 3,000 yuan from August 19, marking a 51.75% increase since the beginning of the year [5] - The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 88.5% purity is reported at 311,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 47.98% increase year-to-date [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to tightening supply and emerging demand, with the Ministry of Natural Resources reducing the tungsten mining quota for 2025 by 4,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% [7] - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have also seen reductions in mining output, contributing to a significant decrease in market circulation [7] - Demand for tungsten in hard alloys is growing due to its superior properties, with applications in various industries including aerospace and electronics [7] Group 3: Market Performance and Stock Analysis - Tungsten-related stocks in the A-share market have generally risen, with an average increase of 10.1% since August [9] - Notable performers include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Zhongtung High-tech (000657), with cumulative increases of 22.48% and 18.99%, respectively [9] - Some tungsten concept stocks are currently undervalued, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 30.24, and companies like Shengtun Mining (600711) having a P/E ratio below 20 [10] Group 4: Company Performance - Shengtun Mining has the lowest valuation with a rolling P/E ratio of 12.41, holding 32,200 tons of tungsten metal in its own mine [11] - Among the eight companies that have disclosed performance data, three have turned losses into profits, while others like Luoyang Molybdenum and Xianglu Tungsten Industry have reported significant year-on-year profit growth [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [11]

Core Viewpoint - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) reported a positive financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 931 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.24% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.38 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 277.65% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 10.35%, up 72.02% year-on-year, while the net profit margin turned positive at 1.97%, a 272.07% increase [1] - The company reported a decrease in total selling, administrative, and financial expenses to 48.39 million yuan, which is 5.2% of revenue, down 13.87% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share rose to 0.06 yuan, a 250% increase compared to the previous year [1] Cash Flow and Debt Analysis - The company experienced a significant decline in operating cash flow per share to -0.15 yuan, a decrease of 164.41% year-on-year [1] - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 45.81% to 121 million yuan, while interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 21.70% to 753 million yuan [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 213.16%, attributed to rising raw material prices [3] Investment and Market Position - The company holds mining rights for tungsten, tin, and copper in the Iron Cangzhai mining area, covering an area of 5.96 square kilometers [5] - Future acquisitions of tungsten mines will be considered based on market conditions and company development [5] Historical Performance Insights - The company's historical return on invested capital (ROIC) has been average, with a median of 7.95% since its listing, and a notably poor ROIC of -3.94% in 2023 [3] - The company has reported losses in three out of its seven annual reports since going public, indicating a fragile business model [3]