专家交流 - 钨价何去何从 20250824 摘要 全球钨需求稳定增长，年增长率约 1.2%，主要驱动力来自高端制造业， 特别是航天航空和军工领域，每年消耗约 11 万吨纯金属量的钨，相当 于 22 万吨标准吨的钨精矿。 中国是全球钨供应的主导者，提供约 80%的需求量。2024 年中国原生 钨精矿产量为 13.35 万吨，远不能满足市场需求，再生钨原料成为重要 补充，部分工厂再生物料使用比例已提升至 30%。 近期小金属市场供需变化导致钨价迅猛上涨，55 度钨精矿价格已达每吨 22 万元，APT 价格接近 33 万元，创历史新高，较 2024 年全年平均价 位上涨超过 50%。 钨价上涨的主要原因包括：自然资源部减少钨配额，商务部和海关总署 加强出口管控，国际市场涨价显著，以及俄乌战争等地缘政治冲突导致 军工需求预期增加，上游企业利润较高。 中国政府加强打击废旧金属走私力度，减少了废旧金属供应，加剧了市 场紧张局势。军工领域对钨的直接和间接消费需求均显著增加，大规模 军备竞赛将进一步推高需求。 Q&A 请简要介绍钨行业的产业链结构。 钨行业的产业链分为上游、中游和下游。上游包括采矿业、选矿业以及废物回 收加 ...

专家会议：钨行业供需及后市展望 20250822 摘要 全球钨消费量约为每年 11 万吨纯钨，中国占比 60%，且在储量、消费、 贸易和供应方面均居世界首位，对全球钨市场具有重要影响。 2025 年初以来，钨精矿、APT 及钨粉价格上涨约 50%，达历史最高涨 幅，主要受战略价值回归预期驱动，而非基本面供需关系。 中国对钨品出口管控新规（2025 年 2 月 4 日）直接导致国际 APT 价格 飙升，国内外价差显著，表明中国政策变动对全球市场有重大影响。 中国五大钨企业（中钨高新、厦门钨业等）控制全国近一半产量，资源 集中度高，对国内外市场具有举足轻重的影响力。 尽管 2025 年钨市场供应与去年持平，但受战争因素和预期影响，库存 补充需求增加，消费略有增长，价格大幅上涨。 当前钨行业上下游利润分配不均，上游矿山利润率超 60%，中游冶炼业 利润率不足 3%，不利于产业链健康发展，亟需合理调整。 预计 2026 年钨需求将因军事用途增加而增长，同时中国收紧钨开采配 额将导致供应减少，可能进一步推高钨价。 Q&A 今年以来钨行业整体价格表现强势，您能否介绍一下钨行业的结构及其产业链 情况？ 钨行业的产业链分为上 ...

钨价持续攀升 ，产业链迎增长机遇。 当地时间8月20日，美股主要股指涨跌不一，道指盘中一度下跌0.34%，随后回升，收盘微涨0.04%；纳指盘中大跌1.92%，跌破21000点，收盘下跌 0.67%；标普500盘中下跌1.05%，收盘跌0.24%。 美联储7月会议纪要公布 | 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 44938.31 | 21172.86 | 6395.78 | | +16.04 +0.04% | -142.09 -0.67% | -15.59 -0.24% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7606.75 | 23318.25 | 6411.00 | | +24.86 +0.33% | -5.75 -0.02% | -2.25 -0.04% | 大型科技股普遍下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌1.07%，苹果跌1.97%，亚马逊跌1.84%，特斯拉跌1.64%，谷歌跌1.14%。中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数上涨0.33%，网易涨1.71%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东集团、百度集团 ...

Group 1: Tungsten Price Trends - Tungsten prices have been on the rise this year, with significant increases in the past week, showing daily price hikes of 3,000 to 10,000 yuan per ton [5] - As of August 20, the price of 65% tungsten concentrate reached 217,000 yuan per ton, up 3,000 yuan from August 19, marking a 51.75% increase since the beginning of the year [5] - The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 88.5% purity is reported at 311,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 47.98% increase year-to-date [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to tightening supply and emerging demand, with the Ministry of Natural Resources reducing the tungsten mining quota for 2025 by 4,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% [7] - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have also seen reductions in mining output, contributing to a significant decrease in market circulation [7] - Demand for tungsten in hard alloys is growing due to its superior properties, with applications in various industries including aerospace and electronics [7] Group 3: Market Performance and Stock Analysis - Tungsten-related stocks in the A-share market have generally risen, with an average increase of 10.1% since August [9] - Notable performers include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Zhongtung High-tech (000657), with cumulative increases of 22.48% and 18.99%, respectively [9] - Some tungsten concept stocks are currently undervalued, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 30.24, and companies like Shengtun Mining (600711) having a P/E ratio below 20 [10] Group 4: Company Performance - Shengtun Mining has the lowest valuation with a rolling P/E ratio of 12.41, holding 32,200 tons of tungsten metal in its own mine [11] - Among the eight companies that have disclosed performance data, three have turned losses into profits, while others like Luoyang Molybdenum and Xianglu Tungsten Industry have reported significant year-on-year profit growth [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is experiencing significant price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with major tungsten companies adjusting their prices accordingly [5][6][7]. Price Trends - Tungsten concentrate prices have surged, with a recent increase of 3,000 to 10,000 yuan per ton, reaching 217,000 yuan per ton as of August 20, marking a 51.75% increase since the beginning of the year [5][6]. - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices are reported at 311,500 yuan per ton, up 47.98% year-to-date, while tungsten powder prices have risen to 482.5 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 53.91% increase [6]. Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a control target for tungsten mining at 58,000 tons for 2025, a reduction of 4,000 tons (6.45%) compared to the previous year [6]. - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have also seen reductions in mining volumes, contributing to a significant decrease in market circulation [6]. Demand Drivers - The demand for tungsten hard alloys is growing due to their superior properties, with applications in various industries including aerospace, defense, and electronics [7]. - The demand for tungsten in the renewable energy sector is expected to rise, with projections indicating a 22% year-on-year increase in consumption for lithium battery applications by 2025 [7]. Stock Performance - Tungsten-related stocks have generally risen, with an average increase of 10.1% since August, led by companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongtung High-tech, which saw increases of 22.48% and 18.99%, respectively [8]. - The median rolling price-to-earnings ratio for tungsten stocks is 30.24, with some companies like Shengtun Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum having ratios below 20 [8]. Company Performance - Among the eight companies that have reported their half-year results, three-quarters have shown positive growth, with Xianglu Tungsten and Guangsheng Nonferrous turning losses into profits [8]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to report a net profit of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [8].

格隆汇8月12日｜据中钨在线，钨市涨声继续，钨精矿和主要钨制品价格迭创新高。月初市场经历短暂 微跌后迅速回归稳健，消费端虽未得到充分喘息，但原料端挺市态度坚决，整体钨价走势坚挺。行情的 主要驱动因素仍为供给端紧缺与持货商惜售，叠加国际价格传导与政策预期共振。截至发稿，仲钨酸铵 (APT)价格报29.1万元/吨，较年初涨37.9%；钨粉价格报438元/公斤，较年初涨38.6%；70钨铁价格报30 万元/吨，较年初涨39.5%；废钨棒材价格报327元/公斤，较年初涨48.6%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Market Overview - On June 11, the tungsten sector showed strength, with Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the limit up, and other companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and China Tungsten High-tech also experiencing collective gains [1] Company Insights - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842.SZ) has turned profitable, operating in the complete tungsten industry chain, including mining, smelting, and production of various tungsten products, with a significant mining area of 5.96 square kilometers [2] - Guangdong Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259.SS) has also turned profitable, focusing on a diversified industrial layout of rare earths, tungsten, and copper, with a tungsten resource reserve of 65,000 tons [2] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SS) is one of the largest tungsten smelting product processing companies globally, with a complete tungsten industry chain and significant market share in tungsten wire production [2] - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) is a leading tungsten smelting product processing company, with a complete production system from mining to deep processing and tungsten resource reserves of 94,600 tons [2] - Luoyang Copper (603993.SS) is a global leader in copper, cobalt, aluminum, and tungsten production, with a tungsten resource reserve of 26,040,000 tons [2] Price Trends - As of June 6, the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China surpassed 173,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 31,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative rise of 21.8%, reaching a historical high [3] Institutional Analysis - China will implement export controls on tungsten-related matters by February 2025, which is expected to strengthen the strategic nature of tungsten resources, as 90% of tungsten concentrate processing capacity is concentrated in China [4] - The application of tungsten in various fields, including photovoltaic cutting and robotics, is expected to drive demand growth [5] - Supply constraints are anticipated due to declining production from existing mines and limited new mine launches, with the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for this year down 6.5% year-on-year, contributing to rising tungsten prices [5] - The tungsten market is expected to enter a bull market phase, with prices likely to continue breaking historical highs, and the supply-demand gap projected to expand from 18,300 tons in 2024 to 19,100 tons in 2028 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "2025-2031 China Tungsten Powder Industry Development Prospect and Investment Direction Research Report" provides a comprehensive analysis of the tungsten powder industry, highlighting its market dynamics, potential investment opportunities, and future trends [1][26]. Industry Overview - The tungsten powder industry transforms tungsten ore into tungsten powder and related products, serving various sectors such as mechanical processing, mining, electronics, aerospace, and defense [1][8]. - China is one of the richest countries in tungsten resources, with significant reserves concentrated in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan provinces, particularly in Jiangxi, which has the highest reserves [1][12]. Market Size and Growth - The market size of China's tungsten powder industry has been increasing, reaching approximately 19.192 billion yuan in 2023 [2][15]. - The production of tungsten powder in China was 74,900 tons in 2023, with Jiangxi province accounting for 53.8% of the total production [2][17][19]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The tungsten powder industry has a clear supply chain structure, with upstream activities including tungsten mining and processing, midstream focusing on tungsten powder production, and downstream applications primarily in hard alloys and tungsten materials [10][11]. - The supply of tungsten is influenced by mining quotas, production capacity, and environmental policies, with major companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and China Tungsten High-tech adjusting prices due to tight supply conditions [2][15]. Future Trends and Predictions - The report forecasts the development prospects of the tungsten powder industry from 2025 to 2031, analyzing market trends, competitive landscape, and investment strategies [26][31]. - The demand for tungsten powder is expected to grow due to advancements in manufacturing, aerospace, and 3D printing technologies, which will drive the need for high-efficiency cutting tools and mining tools [2][17].